As the presidential race appears to be shifting more and more toward Trump, some presidential races appear to be following suit, strengthening the already sturdy prospects for a Republican-led Senate in the next Congress.
Polling data increasingly shows Trump gaining ground in virtually every key battleground, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona, where key battles are being fought to decide the fate of the Senate.
Republicans are heavily favored to win the Senate, largely due to the makeup of the electoral map this cycle. Several Democratic officials in swing states face re-election, notably Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pennsylvania; Jon Tester, Montreal; Tammy Baldwin, Wisconsin; and Sherrod Brown, Ohio.
Polimarket betting odds currently give Republicans a 77% chance of winning the Senate and a 39% chance of winning both houses and the presidency. Here’s a look at the key races for this result and the developments in each that have bookmakers hopeful.
Montana
Tester narrowly defended himself against a challenge from then-Rep. Montreal’s Matt Rosendale managed to hold on to his seat in a state that was double-digit for Trump in the 2018 midterm cycle. Although Rosendale briefly entered the Republican primary this cycle, he it fell out after less than a week as Republicans lined up behind Tim Sheehy (pictured above, right) to sign off on the party.
According to the data, the tester (pictured above, left) is currently losing Sheehy by an average of 7.0%. Real clear policy. Tester had a slight lead over Sheehy earlier this year, and in one February poll he was even up 9.0%. But Republican consolidation behind Sheehy may prove insurmountable, especially since Trump currently leads Harris in the state average 17.4% and may have cloaks favorable to Sheehy.
Ohio
Trump-backed Bernie Moreno triumphed in a crowded Republican primary and will face Brown in the November election. Like Tester, Brown has managed to maintain his position in a situation that has increasingly moved toward the GOP in recent cycles.
Brown currently owns average 2.6% lead over Moreno, although this number is much lower than in the polls from a few months ago, which gave him a 4-6 point advantage. The RCP average also includes more recent data showing a race of 1-2%.
Trump for his part he currently leads Harris in Ohio by 7.4% and the state is not considered a battlefield in this cycle.
Michigan
In recent days, bombshell poll numbers have emerged showing that Trump is poised to take over the Wolverine State in the race for the White House, and RCP unit he put the state in the Republican column this week.
At the Senate level, Republicans may benefit from the retirement of incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, R-Mich., is competing against former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., for the seat, and the race is one of the tightest this cycle. Slotkin is currently enjoying himself narrow lead 1.9%.although several studies of the components of this average show the race to be tied or within one point.
However, by the end of September, Slotkin was leading Rogers by as much as 5.1%, meaning that the Republican managed to cut his opponent’s lead by more than half in a matter of weeks.
Wisconsin
Trump still lags Wisconsin, according to most polls, as does his Senate counterpart, businessman Eric Hovde. However, in recent weeks both races have moved in a way that is favorable to them. In 2016, the Dairy State fell to Trump, and in 2020 it turned to the Democrats. Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin managed to fend off a competitor in 2022 as well.
However, it is Hovde who is challenging the incumbent, not the other way around. Currently a mustachioed tycoon hunts down incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, by an average of 3.4%. However, in August it lost an average of 6.7%. Like Rogers in Michigan, he appears to have cut his Democratic opponent’s lead by more than half in a matter of weeks.
Pennsylvania
The prospects for Republicans in the Keystone State are a little more murky. While Trump has consistently posted modest leads there, the Senate race has been more volatile than many battleground races.
Recently, at the end of August, Casey led Republican challenger David McCormick by an average of 7.6%, although in mid-September this advantage dropped to just 3.0%, before increasing again to the current 3.9%. Trump leads Harris by 0.4%.
Arizona
Republicans’ prospects appear dimmer in Arizona, but there is reason for optimism. Libertine. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz.; he currently holds an impressive 6.8% average lead over Republican Kari Lake.
Like Pennsylvania, the race fluctuated. At the beginning of September Gallego led with 7.3%although at the end of the month this indicator closed down to 4.3%. Trump, for his part, has a 0.5% lead over Harris nationally, meaning Lake Trail 7.2% behind top of the ticket.
Lake and Gallego clashed this week in a debate that classic media and some local media outlets loosely described as: Gallego’s victory. Some clips though circulated on social media Lake managed to land several hits on her Democratic opponent, which supporters said gave hope for a possible turnaround.
– – –
Written by Just the News staff reporters.
Photo “Sen John Tester” by John Tester and “Tim Sheehy” by Tim Sheehy.
