We have pointed this out several times over the past few months, and now the “experts” confirm it. Last year, Republican senators suffered a historic defeat, losing one net seat despite very favorable historical trends and the political environment. They had a valuable opportunity to capitalize on several dynamics and regain control of the upper house, but instead they veered in the wrong direction as indigent candidates and the general distrust of many independent voters in Republicans at the federal level caused indigent result. Looking to 2024, the Senate landscape looks even more favorable for the GOP. Various professional forecasters paint an early and decidedly bleak picture for Democrats on this front:
Crystal Ball: Senate Preliminary Ratings – Democrats are playing a lot of defense to start with
WV starts in Leans R
AZ-MT-OH in the immaculate and jerk
All R places in Safe R except FL/TX, both start in Likely R
Full list here: https://t.co/mYRpaXuHQo pic.twitter.com/efOWC53D7a
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) January 24, 2023
Cook Political Report published his own analysiswhich looks quite similar. They did this with three toss-ups and five “skinny Democrat” races, with all current Republican-held seats listed in the “likely” or “solid” categories (the most “at-risk” R’s are Ted Cruz and Rick Scott W Texas AND Floridaappropriately). It is as cordial a map as Republicans could dream of, and as inhospitable as it could be to the majority party. Democrats will be playing a lot of defense. Republicans would need to win at least two of those seats to flip the majority. The Political Center assesses West Virginia race as the initial “lean Republican” contest, likely because Joe Manchin saw his polls crater after returning home after handing Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer a major political victory with the IRS doubling down on the so-called “Camping Inflation Act.” Part of the incentive to break the deal was the additional agreement that his party abandoned. Manchin will now beg Republicans to lend a hand him fulfill the promise Democrats broke. He has been kicked out and will need GOP lend a hand to get him out on bail. Manchin has it too one of the biggest names West Virginia politicians are open about challenging him in one of the reddest states in the country. A great opportunity to get for Team Elephant.
Come inside Arizonathe stars seem to favor the GOP. Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema went independent, expecting a primary challenge from a left-wing congressman who, in fact, had just announced his campaign. If the center-left votes are split between Sinema and Ruben Gallego (who chaired Eric Swalwell’s dead-end 2020 presidential campaign), even a reasonably unified Republican-right coalition should be able to elect a GOP senator in such a scenario. If this is a popular figure in the mainstream Republican Party, it could potentially turn into a comfortable victory even if Sinema drops out. Conservative former Gov. Doug Ducey would almost certainly win the 2022 Senate race if he ran and was nominated. He would also be a bulky favorite to win this contest, but Arizona Republicans may decide to nominate someone less electable (Ducey won re-election in the blue wave year of 2018). double digits). There are rumors that both unsuccessful candidates for governor and Senate are interested in running for this seat in 2024. Voters will have to choose wisely and consider who will put the party in the best position to regain a coveted seat in the closely divided Upper House.
IN OhioSherrod Brown, the incumbent Democrat, has held his seat since the 2006 election. He won three straight races and made a name for himself in the Buckeye State. However, Ohio has become more Republican in recent years, thanks to the GOP mandate immaculate cleaning in 2022 — including a more than six-point victory in an open Senate race featuring a flawed first-time GOP candidate who struggled mightily to raise money. The Republican governor was re-elected with a 26-point majority. Brown won’t be an effortless out, but the state’s redness combined with the quality challenge will make it a great opportunity to improve. The same goes for Montana, where Jon Tester has proven to survive multiple cycles. But his party is still drifting left, and he almost always votes in the lock step with them. His achievements are not independent recordings. Against a mighty opponent, the political luck of this “Chuck Schumer with a flat haircut” may run out.
Add races in lithe blue states, e.g Nevada AND Wisconsinand a bit more blue Michigan AND Pennsylvania (Republicans have won tight statewide races in all four places in recent years), and Democrats will really have their hands full. If the GOP takes the presidency in the 2024 elections, it is almost guaranteed to enjoy a “trifecta” of power in Washington for at least two years. If a Republican wins this election, it is very likely that the House GOP will simultaneously maintain and expand its current majority, and the Senate will also change its mind, given the map shown above. Much will be at stake. Republican primary voters need to consider the lessons of 2018, 2020 and 2022 and really consider what moderate and independent voters have demonstrated through their voting patterns and decisions. With so much at stake, the GOP electorate needs to think long and difficult about what kind of candidates maximize their chances of winning, both up and down — especially starting with the very top.
