As Americans begin to digest Mitt Romney’s lopsided victory in Wednesday night’s debate, a Republican report shows the presidential candidate has moved ahead in three key swing states. three surveys from a We Ask America interviewer:
Ed Morrissey notes a bit generous (to Republicans) example divisions in Florida and Virginia, although the partisan division in Ohio looks approximately correct. To confirm this data, Rasmussen released two novel polls – his data shows Romney has a one-point advantage in Virginia (49/48) and a drop of one point in Ohio (50/49). But consider this item in the Buckeye State Poll:
But among the staggering 92 percent of all voters in the state who say they will definitely go to the polls on Election Day, Romney leads 51 percent to 48 percent. AND among the 83 percent who have already decided how they will vote, Romney leads 52 to 48 percent.
So Romney leads among those who are most likely to show up and among voters who already have their minds made up. How will the undecided decide to part? If This and all this indicates that Romney has solid reasons for optimism. Speaking of which these revelations regarding absentee ballot applications in Ohio are very captivating indeed:
Since 2008, Republicans have closed the gap by nine percent, but the numbers are even more dramatic in key Ohio counties:
Champaign County: There was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP – A change of 20 points
Columbiana County: It was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP – A change of 18 points
Crawford County: There was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP – A change of 15 points
Cuyahoga County: It was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM – Shift by 6 points
Erie County: It was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM – A change of 17 points
Franklin County: It was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP – A change of 10 points
Greene County: There was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP – A change of 23 points
Harrison County: It was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM – A change of 17 points
Hamilton County: There was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP – Shift by 6 points
Licking County: There was a tie, now +16% GOP – A change of 16 points
Montgomery County: Was +29% THEY, now +5% THEY – A change of 24 points
Muskingum County: There was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP – A change of 17 points
Pickaway County: There was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP – A change of 27 points
Seneca County: There was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP – A change of 14 points
Summit County: It was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM – A change of 27 points
Wood County: It was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP – A change of 11 pointsSince 2008, the Buckeye State’s five largest counties have shifted toward the Republican Party by at least six percent (and as much as 27 percent). While polls show Obama ahead in Ohio, the number of ballot requests suggests Mitt Romney is in a tough situation. the position there today is much better than John McCain was four years ago.
McCain lost Ohio by 4.5 points in 2008 after being roughed up in early voting. These novel statistics – not to mention such anecdotes – suggest that polling patterns that predict this year’s electorate will look similar to the 2008 electorate (or even more Democratic) will probably not be predictable. It will be captivating to see whether Romney’s increased support will be a blip or a trend. On the one hand, reflections always disappear, almost by definition. On the other hand, Romney did something quite infrequent in politics: in one fell swoop, he comprehensively shook up core beliefs in front of a truly mass audience. The New York Times estimates that there is over between Nielsen ratings and online viewership 70 million People watched Wednesday’s debate. For comparison, the first debate four years ago was watched by less than 53 million people. I see this as further evidence that the American people have not received the message that the election is over; it also casts further doubt on pollsters’ predictions about ultimate partisan turnout. By the way, how apoplectic are Obama supporters about the debate? They dream pathetic conspiracy theories about “cheating” Romney and whining about how unfair it was that their guy wasn’t allowed to bring his best friend with him on stage. Seriously, click this link and watch the compilation of idiocy. Unreal.
Going forward, a seemingly “good” jobs report will facilitate Obama somewhat, but you can expect Romney and company to continue to explain why today’s numbers are as they are nothing to celebrate. Example: The “true” U-6 rate remains at 14.7 percent, unchanged from last month. In addition, there is labor participation and snail-paced start-ups things. I also wonder if any benefits Obama might get from 7.8 percent unemployment will be eliminated on Monday Newsweek drops his large reveal about Obama For America accepting illegal foreign donations. Team Obama lifted $150 million a novel record last month. How much of this came from illegal foreign donors? Wait for further information. Meanwhile, Romney presses the gas pedal. For your edification, I’ve included three novel Team Romney ads (the last two of which are state-specific and the first is unique), as well as a video of yesterday’s Romney/Ryan rally in Virginia, which he apparently drew 15,000 followers: :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3rJO4JuYd8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvXtcJJdimA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQvLsF4j8Vc
Do you think Republicans are thrilled with Mitt’s debate performance? Fast forward to 21:38. Enthusiasms.
UPDATE – New Florida poll: Romney 49, Obama 47.
UPDATE II – These signs changing Latino votes in swing states it can be quite vital.
