As you prepare for today’s vote totals, I encourage you to re-read the aggregate analysis of trends, polls and voting blocs released yesterday. Not much has changed in the race’s frantic final 24 hours – at least as far as pollsters can tell – so this bit remains relevant. We currently project Romney to win four states (ID, MA, VA, VT) and Gingrich (GA) and Santorum (TN) to win one each. There are no polls available in two states (AK, ND), and although Romney won both in 2008, this fact may or may not translate into cycles (see NV and CO for contradictory examples). Finally, the two huge delegate-rich prizes are Ohio and Tennessee. The Townhall Polltracker average shows Santorum leading narrowly in the former state and comfortably in the latter, but RealClearPolitics’ final pre-election averages are less favorable for the former Pennsylvania senator. Looking at the latest batch of numbers, I’d give Santorum an A fractional advantage in Tennessee and call Ohio is a real mess.
You can expect most of the media attention to be focused on Buckeye country; represents a tight, contested primary and a must-win general election swing state. From The Florida disaster in 2000networks cleaned up their act by not airing direct exit poll results and waiting for polls to close in a given state before selecting a winner. They do, however, publish snippets of exit poll data on voter demographic information and priorities. For an crucial clue to Ohio’s final outcome, pay attention to the metrics that Ohio GOP voters consider decisive. Romney maintains a vast advantage among those who prioritize defeating President Obama in the fall, while Santorum leads among those who want their choice to embody “truly conservative” values. According to Marist statisticsthe former governor also dominates among those who cite “experience” as their most crucial criterion, while the two leading candidates are fighting for a statistical tie among those who say they will choose a candidate who shares their position on the issue. In other words, if exit polls suggest that Ohio’s electorate has finally placed a much greater emphasis on electability, it could be a good night for Mitt Romney. If values ​​prevail, Santorum can secure the state it desperately needs.
Finally, Gallup included some useful information about national trends among all Republican-leaning voters. This is pretty much all good news for Team Romney, but it should be taken with a pinch of salt, as I’ll explain below. Data: :
Right now, Romney is leading in literally every demographic measurement:
But here’s the problem: If one (or more) of the “non-Romney” candidates have a surprisingly good night (let’s say Santorum wins Ohio, Newt takes Tennessee, or some similar scenario), this would immediately resurrect this Romney as a delicate favorite plot and this year’s historically unstable The GOP electorate would likely fall back into indecisive chaos – completely changing the above numbers. If Romney has a good night (think winning six states, including Ohio), he will maintain and strengthen his national advantage. What about Delegate Santorum’s problem in Ohio? Couldn’t he win the popular vote but also suffer a delegate loss due to his team’s logistical errors? Entirely possible, but splitting the delegates won’t change the narrative. In brief, the question of the Santorum delegate is very real when it comes to the X and 0 path to 1144 and the convention, but in the combined areas of momentum and fundraising, a win is a win.
