The disagreement between Democrats and Republicans over a three-month extension of unemployment benefits will be used by Democrats as political fodder against Republicans if Republicans let them.
Midterm elections for a president’s second term are typically complex for the president’s party. Moreover, Obama’s approval ratings dropped to 40 percent in December after the failure to implement his flagship health plan. With the recent passage of a bipartisan budget bill, the need for distraction – a modern focus for political operatives and, therefore, voters – becomes crucial.
During his January 4 speech, President Barack Obama outlined his 2014 agenda, but also outlined the Democratic campaign plan for the 2014 fall midterm elections.
Republicans: mean and cruel, Democrats: good.
“Just days after Christmas, more than a million of our fellow Americans lost a vital economic lifeline,” he said, referring to the expiration of Emergency Supplemental Federal Unemployment Compensation for people unemployed for more than 26 weeks.
Obama conjured up images of parents struggling to make ends meet and cited facts from the Congressional Budget Office about potentially “hampering our economic growth.”
Obama drew a line in the ground: “Right now, a bipartisan group in Congress is working on a three-month extension of unemployment insurance, and if it passes, I will sign it,” he said.
He left unaddressed the hope of some Democrats that Republicans would block the extension and therefore be called cruel and heartless for the rest of the year.
The political message in Obama’s speech was clear: “Republicans in Congress went home for the holidays and let this bailout expire,” Republicans are “punishing families who can least afford it,” are “simply cruel,” and “are willing to abandon the American people.”
All of this is a far cry from the message Obama delivered about himself and his allies who “don’t abandon our fellow Americans when times get tough – we keep faith in them until they start their new job.”
This false construct was broken on Tuesday of this week, when Senate Democrats moved to extend the three-month extension – with the facilitate of six Republicans and thanks to a press release from Speaker John Boehner of Ohio.
Boehner agreed to work on “another extension of temporary emergency unemployment benefits,” but said they “should not only be paid, but also include something to help people get back to work.”
Republicans: “nice, helpful,” was the message.
The facts are this: According to Boehner’s website, “the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program is implemented only in the worst economic conditions and is ephemeral… the last program… lasted longer (66 months), was extended more times (12), helped more people ($24 million), cost more ($265 billion) and increased debt ($210 billion) than any previous program…the indispensable safety net of providing all eligible unemployed workers with 26 weeks of benefits” remains in effect.
Republicans should aggressively support ephemeral supplemental unemployment benefits, make sure they are paid for, and tie them to job training and tax credits for job creation. As Obama says, we really need more jobs, and additional unemployment benefits don’t provide jobs, only money.
To be successful, Republicans’ argument this fall must be based on more than facts and figures; it must also contain emotions and be formulated in a positive way.
Arthur Brooks, president of the American Enterprise Institute, links a person’s happiness to “the belief that you have created value in your life and value in the lives of other people. When people say they deserve their success, they become much happier than their neighbors, friends and families.”
But we need to do more to communicate emotionally, connecting politics with people.
We are in favor of a program that provides support for the long-term unemployed, but also encourages skills training and job creation without increasing debt. Such a program would allow a single mother who has recently acquired modern skills to be employed by a miniature business that can afford to hire her because of tax breaks. Now he can explain to his son how he helps others with his work and how he earns money for his family.
This is the message Republicans should be delivering all year long.
