On August 12, Fr Cook Political Report he placed Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes in the toss column. But let’s be straightforward. The Keystone State will likely transition to a democracy. Like California, Pennsylvania has not switched to the Republican Party in a national election since 1988.
Pennsylvania is a strange state. It is aptly described as Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Alabama in between. Republicans still control the state legislature and, until 2014, the governor’s mansion. In 2011, the Republican Party made huge profits in judicial races, ultimately controlling 51 of 67 county governments. Republicans managed to take over Westmoreland County this year, which hasn’t gone Republican in more than 50 years and has a gigantic Democratic advantage in voter registration.
[Image Courtesy of Cooke Political Report]
Pennsylvania’s Republican Party took it as a sign that the state could slide into Romney’s column in the 2012 general election. Romney tied almost 30,000 people for a rally in Bucks County (one of the counties outside of Philadelphia that decides state elections), which commentators have noted: a) doesn’t happen in Bucks County, let alone for a GOP candidate running in Pennsylvania. However, the “we will win AP” balloon burst for the GOP; Obama took over the state 52/46 over Romney.
So Republicans are doing really well until the presidential term. This must be driving GOP operatives crazy. You can win the governorship, the state legislature, a majority of the courts, and the state will still be blue when the national contests come. To make it even worse, half of the national composition of the national regulatory authority lives 4 hours from Pittsburgh.
Pennsylvania is a cruel mistress. It has been since 1992, and I think we should continue to assume that in 2016. Moreover, winning Pennsylvania is nice, but it is not a must-win state. Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado are must-win states in next year’s elections. The resources spent in these states will likely be seen as much more critical of the Democratic machine waiting for us.
Is Pennsylvania a lost cause or is there a ray of hope? Comment below.
Adjustment: : Sorry, guys… I was tired. It’s Cook, not Cooke, a political report. We apologize for the error, it has been corrected in the post. Thanks to Brandon Finnigan from the Ace Of Spades decision team for bringing this to our attention. Give me too his AND AoSHQDD tracking. By the way, a great election website worth following.
