WASHINGTON – The White House remains deeply in denial about the growing unpopularity of President Obama’s government health care plan.
Not only do recent polls show that a clear majority of voters disagree with his government’s entitlement plan; show that the key groups that make up this majority – seniors and independents – are now moving away from Democrats towards Republicans in the 2010 election cycle.
However, on Monday, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters that “the president believes health care is in a better place… we believe health care is in a better place.”
However, a highly regarded Rasmussen poll found earlier on Monday that “only 41 percent of voters nationwide now support the health care reform proposed by President Obama and Democrats in Congress. This is a two-point decline from a week ago and the lowest level of support measured so far.”
The Rasmussen poll shows that 56% of Americans currently oppose the plan, with a slim 47% to 46% saying it is unlikely to be adopted.
Perhaps most telling is that seniors are strongly opposed to the $1 trillion plan, with 59% opposed and just 33% in favor. Significantly, only 16 percent of Americans over 65 “strongly support” the Democrats’ bills, while 46 percent are “strongly against.”
The White House-backed plan would be largely funded by up to $500 billion in cuts to Medicare and Medicaid spending that older adults fear will lead to reduced payments for medical, hospital services and other health care procedures. The administration and Democratic leaders deny this, saying they only intend to cut waste, fraud and abuse from the programs.
But there are widespread doubts among rank-and-file Democrats in Congress whether nearly $400 billion can be carved out of the Medicare budget without requiring a short-term overhaul of health care for the nation’s elderly.
There is also growing concern that the deep cuts that would be required to finance Obama’s costly health care plan will create a backlash among seniors in the 2010 midterm elections.
Obama tried to turn the health care debate into a war against the huge insurance companies, wrongly believing that most Americans believe – as he apparently does – that the health insurance industry is devious, dishonest and unscrupulous. But most Americans don’t believe this.
“The bottom line is that 68 percent of American voters have health insurance that they rate as good or excellent… Most of these voters approach the health care reform debate fearing they have more to lose than to gain,” the pollster wrote Scott Rasmussen recently featured in the Wall Street Journal.
At the heart of Republicans’ strategy to defeat Democrats’ bill is a prescient political observation: focusing on the right things voters fear most – punitive federal mandates for struggling middle-class individuals and families to buy health insurance that will provide oppress their finances; fees for struggling miniature businesses that do not provide health care; mandates that will raise the cost of health insurance for everyone; and creating another government entitlement program as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security teeter on the brink of insolvency.
“There is no political downside for Republicans who oppose health care bills that would raise insurance premiums, raise taxes or add to the mountain of federal debt,” GOP pollster Whit Ayres wrote this week on the Politico website. The Ayres poll found that “by a margin of 52 to 39 percent, voters prefer a plan that ‘does not provide health insurance to all Americans but keeps taxes at current levels’ over a plan that ‘raises taxes to provide health insurance’ to all Americans.”
Ayres also finds that the two largest voting blocs have turned against Obamacare: independent voters, who “think much more like Republicans than Democrats,” and seniors, many of whom will lose popular Medicare Advantage plans (Medicare plus private insurance).
“The Democratic bills seek to drastically cut or eliminate Medicare Advantage, which would deprive nearly a quarter of seniors who have chosen Medicare Advantage plans as their preferred option,” he says.
If Democrats succeed in passing their plans into law despite fierce public opposition, “they will create a massive political backlash that will open the door for Republicans to regain control of Congress” in 2010, just as the GOP did after the Hillarycare defeat in 1994, he warned.
This is not an idle GOP political threat. Senate Democrats such as Harry Reid of Nevada, Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Barbara Boxer of California are lagging behind in their efforts to keep their jobs. Races for several open Republican seats are surprisingly tight in Ohio, Missouri and New Hampshire.
There is much more behind Obama’s health care gamble than just legislative prospects. There is also a risk that Democrats’ majorities in Congress will be significantly weakened in the last two years of his presidency.
