There seems to be an underreported trend as we approach the final days of the 2022 election. Once this cycle ends, the 2024 election will begin—part of the ongoing cycle of our political system. We are watching the red tsunami that could be triggered by an antagonistic Republican Congress that will block and water down any future Biden initiatives. Joe Biden will become a ephemeral incumbent while his party undoubtedly debates whether he could seek reelection in 2024. We all know that Joe may want to, but may not be physically or mentally able to do so. He is often on vacation, exceeding the number of days Trump has been on vacation.
Pundits are saying a recession will hit next spring, oblivious to the fact that we’re already in one — the Biden administration has simply chosen to ignore the quarterly reports. So, since we’re headed to 2024, the day after Election Day 2022, Democrats can probably take Iowa off the board. This may not come as a shock to some, since the GOP has won the state in the past two presidential cycles, but it was Obama country — twice (via Bloomberg):
Stan Hawkeye elected Barack Obama to serve two terms as president, but has been leaning increasingly right-wing since he twice endorsed Donald Trump https://t.co/0X40FPmGm3 photo: twitter.com/cMv5TOq8N1
— Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) October 24, 2022
Iowa twice ran for president under Barack Obama, but since twice supporting Donald Trump, the state has swung far to the right, and has now reached the point where the outcome of next month’s election could end its status as a swing state.
The Hawkeye State’s sole congressional Democrat, Cindy Axne, is in a tight race as Republicans look to fully swing the state’s congressional delegation to their side for the first time since the 1950s. Since 2020, the percentage of registered Democrats has fallen, while Republicans and independent voters have increased. Gov. Kim Reynolds, both U.S. senators, three of four U.S. representatives and a majority of the state legislature are Republicans.
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“If Republicans win statewide offices in the 2022 federal and state legislative elections, Iowa’s status as a proxy will likely end,” said Andrew Green, a political science professor at Central College in Pella, Iowa, and an independent voter. “Iowa has always been known for its independent streak.”
But Iowa could lose its status as a barometer because its position as the site of the presidential nominating contest may not last long after several problems with the 2020 caucus. Candidates, pollsters, strategists and reporters typically gather there nearly two years before the presidential election to shake hands, visit fairs and attend county luncheons to take the temperature in the overwhelmingly white and rural state.
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Like across the country, Republicans are telling voters that Democrats fail to understand the economic pain Iowans are feeling. Democrats, meanwhile, are emphasizing abortion rights after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a constitutional right to the procedure.
Inflation is having a particular impact in Iowa. Rising costs and rising fertilizer prices are eroding the bottom line for many farmers, who say they worry about demand for corn ethanol in the state amid a nationwide push for electric vehicles. And working families say they worry about the availability and cost of child care.
Three of Iowa’s four congressional districts are among the most competitive in midterm elections, but they are overwhelmingly or likely to be overwhelmingly Republican, according to the Cook Political Report.
There were a number of supposed swing states that are now red strongholds. Just look at Florida and Ohio. These were two states that were once considered swing territory but are no longer. Florida had long been seen as ground zero for the Republicans, because Democrats assumed the Electoral College advantage was so vast that losing Florida would forever exclude the GOP from the White House. Hypothetically, that wasn’t an incorrect claim, but changes in public opinion make it impossible to establish eternal majorities. The 2016 election dispelled that fear.
One reason Republicans feared losing Florida was the influx of hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans — who lean Democratic. That blue surge never materialized in that demographic, and by 2020, the Latino vote in Florida had shifted Republican.
Ohio is another state where Democrats I’m worried they won’t win again. But this year’s U.S. Senate election between Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance is seen by pundits as a no-decision race. Given how the state is going politically, I doubt Ryan will be elected to the U.S. Senate. Before he left the Republican Party, George Will had a humorous description of the GOP’s strategy for winning the White House against Obama, which was to win the South, the Midwest, and parts of the West, then spend the equivalent of Brazil’s GDP and take Ohio.
But Obama’s two-term win in Iowa underscores how Democrats have lost their way over the past decade. The former president did one thing that current liberals now consider anathema: he appealed to white, working-class voters. Obama didn’t win that demographic entirely, but he won enough of them — about 35 to 40 percent — to bring states like Iowa and Indiana, which had been Democratic pipe dreams in previous elections, into the mix. It should also serve as a warning to Republicans: All the glory is fleeting. If Democrats can find someone who eschews leftist tendencies on social issues and talks about law and order, job creation, and fairer trade deals, you’d be surprised how that voting bloc will fall apart. If we want to talk about swing territories in the context of elections, it’s white, working-class voters who voted for both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats need to stop being snobs, and they’ll probably make some progress with that group again. But that depends entirely on whether the city professionals who dominate the party are willing to do so.
For now, Iowa is a solidly Republican state, and I doubt Democrats will consider softening their over-the-top tone to win over working people.
