In the run-up to the New York governor’s race, I consistently expressed skepticism that GOP candidate Lee Zeldin could actually incite the ire of incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul. That’s right, she seemed to do everything in her power to lose, from constantly focusing on less critical issues to disrespectfully donating money to crime. She ran a terrible campaign. But for a statewide campaign to be truly competitive in a place as blue as New York, the Democrats’ terribleness will not be enough. The Republican must also run a clever, aggressive and spirited campaign. Lee Zeldin did it. Republicans across the state and country should be grateful.
In some ways, Zeldin didn’t belong in New York, generally speaking. Hochul vehemently opposed his votes against certifying some of the 2020 presidential election results, and she took aim at his pro-life stance, which in a very liberal place is a strenuous sell across the state. But he focused like a laser on crime and the economy, and during the campaign he was both energetic and relentless. It attracted tons of earned media and excited many New York voters. Many of them proved motivated to support defeat Hochul. Republican governors like Ron DeSantis and Glenn Youngkin came to support the cause. The result was a single-digit loss – closest The Empire State’s gubernatorial race has been going on for decades:
It wasn’t enough to win, but @leezeldin 47 percent is the best result for a New York gubernatorial candidate in 20 years and will support flip several seats in the House of Representatives.
— Matthew Continetti (@continetti) November 9, 2022
After counting almost all the votes, Hochul won by less than six points. Perhaps frustratingly and tantalizingly close, but for weeks I have been emphasizing on TV and radio that a tight race for the top spots would have consequences for fewer votes. Thanks to a blatantly unconstitutional gerrymander attempt that was blown up by the state Supreme Court, New York has been home to a string of competitive House races this cycle. I argued that Zeldin leading the way for the party, even if he fails, could pay off in these races, and that’s exactly what happened. As of this writing, Republicans have swapped two seats (update: looks like four, see below), with potentially more on the way:
If Democrats lose the House (which seems likely at this point), New York could be the main reason.
IN #NY03, #NY04, #NY17, #NY19AND #NY25Republicans appear to be heavily favored.
All five voted for Biden in 2020 (by a 5-15 point margin) and were considered highly competitive. pic.twitter.com/TZUHLVIJby
— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) November 9, 2022
Democrats agreed in New York-3, Long Island and New York-17, where DCCC Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney conceded defeat. Strangely enough, DCCC had an almost miraculously good night, but lost. By the way, this is it engaging note about the GOP winner in NY-3, who is, among other things, Jewish and Latino:
The GOP’s reception is historic. Santos is the son of immigrants and will become the first openly gay Republican to serve in Congress. https://t.co/mBm5dJD9O9
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 9, 2022
If NY-4 holds and a Republican declares victory there (update: that’s what it’s called), this would be the GOP’s main gain over: Biden District +15. NY-19 would be another boost for Republicans, who narrowly lost a special election in the district earlier this year. His looks pretty goodit seems (update: his now called). NY-22 would be an critical boost, but not a gain. Also looks pretty good. New Yorkof all places, it could provide key seats to the narrow majority in the Republican House (which has not yet been convened, but seems quite likely). If this happens, Zeldin and DeSantis in Florida (R+4 places with the recent FL map) were the MVP of the party. I also surmise that Zeldin likely had a domino effect beyond his state’s borders, but also within his media market:
🚨 #CT05 REVERSE WARNING 🚨
— CTGOP (@CTGOP) November 9, 2022
BREAKING: Republican Thomas Kean Jr. wins the House of Representatives race in New Jersey’s 5th congressional district, defeating Democratic Republican Tom Malinowski and flipping the seat https://t.co/BM5xSEfdvV pic.twitter.com/A90ISZu7Dq
— Bloomberg (@business) November 9, 2022
I’m not taking anything away from any of the candidates who fought strenuous in the races (the CT race wasn’t called), but Zeldin drumming on key issues all over TV in this market couldn’t hurt. By the way, is it possible that some of these very close House victories in the New York area will be wiped out in 2024? Absolutely. But dynamics in other areas of the country could change in the next cycle as well, with massive Republican victories in state Supreme Court races in Ohio AND North Carolina last night mean that several recent GOP-leaning districts are likely to be drawn soon.
