We’ve talked at length that if there are top Senate races to watch next year, they’ll be West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. We will certainly continue to talk about these three races, especially if Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) decides he will seek re-election, whether he remains a Democrat or runs as an independent. Especially compared to the 2022 Senate map, the 2024 map looks particularly favorable when it comes to seats that Democrats need to defend. New polls out of Montana show that the race in which Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is seeking re-election actually appears to be a competitive one.
Last week, Emerson College released a poll for Ohio that showed Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown was statistically tied with all three of his Republican challengers. He was slightly ahead by businessman Bernie Moreno, but state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose had some points against him.
This week, Emerson College published a survey for Montana, between Tester and Republican Tim Sheey, a former Navy SEAL and CEO of an aerial firefighting company. He announced it in slow June and already has some endorsements from other Montana Republicans.
Tester has 39 percent and Sheehy has 35 percent. While Tester appears to have a larger lead, especially compared to the Ohio race matchups, that lead is still within the margin of error. Moreover, 21 percent are undecided and 6 percent say they would vote for someone else.
Spencer Kimball, Emerson’s executive director of polling, focused on the gender gap in a statement included in the survey description. “There is a significant gender divide among Montana voters,” he said. “Tester leads Sheehy among women by 16 points, 46% to 30%, while Sheehy leads among men by eight points, 40% to 32%.”
Montana could be engaging for the Republican primary. Rep. Matt Rosendale also considered running. That’s tough considering he was competing against Tester in 2018 and lost with 46.8 percent of the vote to Tester’s 50.3 percent. Although some forecasters thought the race slightly favored Tester, the Cook Political Report deemed the race a “tossup.” It was considered an embarrassing loss considering how Republicans did well at the Senate level that year.
Not only had Rosendale run in the race before and lost, but he had also irritated the powers that be. Montana’s other senator, Republican Steve Daines, also serves as a Republican senator Chairman of the Committee (NRSC).
How report from TheMessenger spotted earlier this month:
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines, a Montanan, urged Rosendale to remain in the House and build seniority in his home state. Daines endorsed Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and CEO of an aerial firefighting company. Sheehy also received endorsements from Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke, Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte and several GOP senators.
The report, which we also discussed at the time, was released just before Rosendale voted to remove Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) as Speaker of the House. He was one of eight Republicans who joined all Democrats to vote in favor of Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-FL) resolution to vacate the seat earlier this month. Rosendale also voted against McCarthy during his 15-round bid to become speaker, which he ultimately achieved in the early morning hours of January 7.
Appearing on a Zoom call with donors alongside Gaetz and Steve Bannon and with footage obtained by TheMessenger, Rosendale revealed that “when unfortunately many people voted to have 270, 280 Houses Republican,” he “prayed every night for small majority, because I realized that a slim majority was the only way to advance the conservative agenda, and that if it was a proper majority, then if we had six or seven very strong people, we would have carried the conference to the right, and we managed to do it!” Rosendale is a Catholic who regularly attends daily Mass.
These comments didn’t sit well with Daines or Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), who even posted his thoughts directly to his X campaign account.
He referred to this story https://t.co/XW5bU1fOLh
— Igor Bobić (@igorbobic) October 3, 2023
Maryland Matt Rosendale praying for Democrats to win election? Did God answer his prayers in 2018 when Jon Tester humiliated him?
This is just one of the many, many reasons why Maryland Matt won’t come within even the slightest mile of the Senate. https://t.co/3JNnSyD2Na
— Tom Cotton (@TomCottonAR) October 4, 2023
What’s more, the state was won by former and potentially future President Donald Trump in 2016 from 56.2% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 35.7%. He still won it too in 2020 from 56.9% of the vote to President Joe Biden’s 40.5%.
In a hypothetical rematch with Biden in 2024, Trump again leads by double digits. The poll shows he has 49% of the vote to Biden’s 28%, with 16% saying they support someone else and 7% undecided.
Ticket splits can be big in Montana. “Voters Split on U.S. Senate and 2024 Presidential Elections.” Kimball noted. “Twelve percent of Trump voters plan to split their seats and vote for Tester for the Senate. This is due to Tester’s support among independent and women voters. Among independent voters, Tester outperforms Biden by 11 points, with 38% compared to Biden’s 27%. Among women, Tester outperforms Biden by 15 points, 46% compared to Biden’s 31%.
As CNN reported in July, Trump will not support Rosendale if he runs for Senate. This isn’t surprising, considering Rosendale is so memorable rejected the call from Trump when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) tried to hand him a phone so the former president could talk to him about endorsing McCarthy for speaker in January.
The quality of the candidate likely matters, especially when it comes to facing an incumbent, even a vulnerable one, in a red state.
The Emerson poll also shows Biden underwater by 40 points in Montana, with 62.5 percent saying they disapprove of the job he is doing as president compared to 22 percent who do. That’s just shy of the 15.5 percent who say they have no opinion.
The poll was conducted October 1-4, surveyed 447 registered voters, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
Tester may be harmed by his own comments in Biden’s favor. As we wrote in August, Tester then said in an interview with NBC News that he thought Biden “supports it 100 percent.”
“He does a good job. I think people are making a bigger deal out of it than it actually is,” Tester said. “But you know, we’ll see what I’ll be like when I’m 82. “I doubt I’ll run for president.”
Forecasts we are currently considering a race to slightly favor the Subject or be rejected.
Jon Tester: Joe Biden ‘is absolutely 100% on it… He’s doing a good job. I think people are making a bigger deal out of it than it really is.
Drop the tape! #MTSen pic.twitter.com/fcyGI1Tgso
— Senate Republicans (@NRSC) August 17, 2023
