In a two-part political analysis written more than a month before the midterm elections, I predicted that Republicans would “run up the score” in Big Ten country – the eight states that host the legendary collegiate athletics conference. Based on demographics and polling, I concluded that if a statewide GOP wave materialized on November 2, the party would need to do well in this area of the Midwest. How did my screenings go on election night? Let’s analyze the results by state:
Illinois –
Performance: The GOP will gain 2-3 seats in the House of Representatives, a seat in the Senate and the governor’s position.
Actual results: Republicans exceeded my expectations in the House, taking the highly competitive Northshore seat (IL-10) and winning at least three Democratic seats (IL-11, IL-14, IL-17) statewide. As an obvious bonus, it appears that the underfunded and flawed GOP candidate in (IL-08) narrowly defeated incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean, which will be a major surprise if she holds on. Currently, Bean is just a few hundred votes miniature, with hundreds of votes still being counted.
Republican Mark Kirk survived a furious last-minute attack by national Democrats to save President Obama’s aged Senate seat, defeating Alexi Giannoulas by two points.
While Melissa Bean’s apparent defeat was incredibly thrilling for Illinois Republicans, the surprising defeat of gubernatorial candidate Bill Brady was equally, if not more, disappointing. Polls showed Brady had a solid lead over Gov. Pat Quinn on Election Day, and yet the incumbent managed to keep his mouth shut.
Indiana –
Performance: Republicans will gain a seat in the Senate and two seats in the House of Representatives.
Actual results: Bullseye. Republican Dan Coates defeated Democrat Brad Ellsworth in the battle for Sen. Evan Bayh’s vacant Senate seat, taking Ellsworth’s vacant House seat in the process. As I predicted, Ellsworth’s gibberish on his voting record did not confuse Hoosier state voters. The GOP also eliminated Rep. Baron Hill in (IN-09). Democrat Joe Donnelly (IN-02) faced a fierce challenge from Jackie Walorski, but survived.
Iowa –
Performance: Republicans will reclaim the governor’s mansion, keep their Senate seat and “maybe” gain a seat or two in the House of Representatives.
Actual results: As expected, the top of the GOP ticket performed well. Sen. Chuck Grassley upset his virtually anonymous challenger, and former GOP Gov. Terry Branstad regained the governorship by unseating Democrat Chet Culver.
Despite high-profile successes, Iowa Republicans found themselves frustrated in all three competitive House races. Democratic incumbents won re-election in Iowa’s first three congressional districts, all by less than five points. The biggest scare came from Bruce Braley in (IA-01), defeating Republican Ben Lange’s insurrection by less than 4,000 votes.
Michigan –
Performance: The red wave will take the governorship of Michigan and three seats in the House of Representatives.
Actual results: Self-proclaimed “tough nerd” Rick Snyder (right) easily defeated Democrat Virgia Bernero in the race to replace failed Gov. Jennifer Granholm.
On the House side, Republican Dan Benishek, MD won Bart Stupak’s vacated seat in (MI-01), and in a nasty rematch (MI-07), former Congressman Tim Walberg exacted sweet revenge on Democrat Mark Schauer, who defeated him in 2008. Republicans ran out (MI-05) and (MI-09).
Minnesota –
Performance: Democrats will barely win the open governor’s race because Tim Pawlenty is term-limited, and Republicans will fail to win any seats in the House of Representatives – although there are several “chances for an outside victory.”
Actual results: As of this writing, the governor’s race is still unresolved and appears headed for a recount. Republican Tom Emmer currently has a lead of several thousand votes.
Sometimes “outside shots” hit the mark. Republican Chip Cravvack shocked the nation by upsetting longtime incumbent Democrat Jim Oberstar in (MN-08).
Bonus: Both houses of the Minnesota State Legislature inverted republican for the first time in almost forty years.
Ohio –
Performance: Suffer, Ohio Democrats. They will lose the governorship and 3 to 5 seats in the House of Representatives, and Republicans will keep an open seat in the U.S. Senate.
Actual results: BullseyeAgain. Gov. Ted Strickland lost to Republican John Kasich, and former Bush official Rob Portman trampled hapless Democratic candidate Lee Fischer in the race to succeed Sen. George Voinovich.
In the House, Republicans cleaned up, defeating five Democratic incumbents (in OH-01, OH-06, OH-15, OH-16, and OH-18). Bonus added: He admitted to beating his wife Rep. Charlie Wilson was among the political victims despite the mainstream media’s silence on his domestic violence story.
Pennsylvania –
Performance: The GOP will regain both the governorship and Arlen Specter’s Senate seat, as well as 4-6 seats in the House.
Actual results: My most satisfying Bullseye. Republican Tom Corbett cruised to victory in the governor’s race, and conservative hero Pat Toomey squeaked ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak by a majority of about 80,000 votes out of about 4 million votes cast.
Members of Pennsylvania’s Democratic House delegation fell faster than rebel infantry during Pickett’s Charge at Gettysburg. Like their Ohio counterparts, Keystone State Republicans picked up five House seats (PA-03, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, and PA-11) and gave Democrat Jason Altmire a nasty scare in (PA- 04 ).
Wisconsin –
Performance: The Badger State’s governor’s seat, Senate seat and “at least one” House seat will change from blue to red.
Actual results: Quasi-eye bullseye, due to non-specificity. Republican Scott Walker defeated liberal tax and spending leader Tom Barrett by five points in the governor’s race. The Tea Party’s favorite businessman, successful businessman Ron Johnson, unseated iconic liberal Senator Russ Feingold, also by five points.
The GOP gained two seats in the House, which certainly qualifies as “at least one,” which admittedly wasn’t a very bold choice. Former MTV star Sean Duffy chopped Democrat Julia Lassa and Republican Reid Ribble overtook incumbent Congressman Steve Kagen.
Application —
Here is my verbatim final National Big Ten prediction as of October 1, 2010:
“Based on the above analysis, Republicans will score at least five governors, four U.S. Senate seats, and 15 to 20 House of Representatives seats in Big Ten Country itself this fall.”
How did I cope? After all the votes were counted, the Republican Party won five governorss (IA, MI, OH, PA and WI), with one race (MN) still in progress. Republicans have gained four seats in the Senateholding two more. And they scored a goal 20 seats in the House of Representativeswith one race (IL-08) still undefined.
All told, Republican gains in eight Midwestern states alone accounted for 71 percent of GOP gubernatorial gains, two-thirds of the party’s Senate receipts and roughly one-third of all House sales. Analyzed another way, John Boehner needed just 39 seats to take the gavel away from Nancy Pelosi, and the Big Ten states took Boehner more than halfway home. Bottom line: The Republican Party did exceptionally well in Big Ten Country last week. Result.
