Donald Trump and Joe Biden have already clinched the nominations following Tuesday’s ballot contests, but there will be other key primary elections in more states. Next Tuesday we reach the Republican Senate primary in Ohio, where three candidates will compete against Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, a particularly vulnerable incumbent, in November.
Wednesday at Emerson College published his survey they did this for The Hill, showing that many voters – 32 percent – are undecided. However, among the three Republican Party candidates, state senator Matt Dolan is currently leading with 26 percent support. Businessman Bernie Moreno has 23% support, while Secretary of State Frank LaRose has 16% support.
OHIO SURVEY z @Hill
GOP, US Senate primaries
Matt Dolan 26%
Bernie Moreno 23%
Frank LaRose 16%
32% undecidedhttps://t.co/MbY3dKMLMy pic.twitter.com/FBr6U3s7eA— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) March 13, 2024
Dolan addressed this vigorous in a statement to Townhall. “The polls go up and down, but what remains constant is that my focus is on Ohio. That’s why I work every day to GAIN the support of my fellow Republicans. I have a history of supporting conservative policies that protect freedom, and I work for Ohio. That’s why we have dynamics,” he said.
The trend here is quite fascinating. Since the polls were conducted in November, January and now March, the “undecided/someone else” category has majority or plurality support. In one poll, each man had more support than the others. For example, LaRose had 18% support in November, Dolan had 15% and Moreno had 10%. In January, Moreno had 22% support compared to Dolan’s 21% and Dolan’s 15%.
“Overall, Dolan is the third candidate to lead Emerson polls in the Republican primary this year: LaRose led in November, Moreno led in January, and now Dolan is gaining voters’ attention,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, is quoted as saying as a saying. “Changing dynamics left a significant number of voters undecided with less than a week until Election Day.”
LaRose, however, is deterred. Ben Kindel, a campaign spokesman, told Townhall that “We are confident that Frank will be the next U.S. senator from Ohio. Ohio voters want someone they know they can trust and who is a proven conservative. This is Frank LaRose.”
The poll also shows Brown with an advantage over all three Republicans looking to challenge him. Although this advantage is larger than in January, it is much narrower than in November last year. Brown leads Dolan 37-34 percent, with 22 percent undecided, while he leads LaRose 39-33 percent, with 21 percent undecided, and leads Moreno 39-34 percent, with 21 percent undecided.
Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is still “Drop it off” and for good reason. Brown is the only statewide elected Democrat remaining in Ohio, and Trump won the state by about 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. He already endorsed Moreno last December and will hold a rally on his behalf on Saturday. Especially if Moreno stays nominees, it will be intriguing to see what role Trump’s coattails play.
Indeed, Trump enjoys 50 percent to Biden’s 41 percent, with 9 percent undecided. When undecided voters choose who they lean toward, Trump enjoys 55 percent approval compared to Biden’s 45 percent.
The poll was conducted March 7-1 among 1,300 registered voters, of whom 443 said they planned to vote in the Republican Party primary elections. The margin of error is 2.6 percentage points.
Dolan enjoyed both a surge in polls and support this week from Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. He also received recommendations from former senator Rob Portman and East Palestine Mayor Trent Conaway.
Moreno’s campaign actually benefits from DeWine’s support against him, especially when it comes to support for Ukraine. “The America-Last wing says the quiet part out loud. “DeWine supports Dolan because he is more focused on financing Ukraine than on solving our problems here at home,” said Moreno spokeswoman Reagan McCarthy. “The contrast in this prep school couldn’t be more stark: Dolan’s priority is other countries, not America.”
Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report believes the race between Moreno and Dolan is now on. “One week later, Ohio Senate GOP primary Still up for grabs despite Trump’s endorsement,” she wrote in Tuesday’s analysis. While sharing her article, she also reposted the Emerson College survey.
Speaking about Trump’s campaign performance, she stated that “it’s quite likely that a behind schedule push will be enough to get Moreno to the finish line, and several sources have told us that as undecided voters learn of Trump’s endorsement, Moreno’s poll numbers will augment,” adding: “[i]“It’s a proven tactic that Trump has used time and time again.”
As I wrote last night @CookPolitical, #OHSsen the basic agreement is far from finalized. Dolan’s rise is real, but will Trump’s 11-hour rally on Saturday be enough to boost Moreno? We’ve certainly seen this beforehttps://t.co/XNJxYmlknj https://t.co/Wx3IZ7dMjF
— Jessica Taylor (@JessicaTaylor) March 13, 2024
She also talked about Dolan’s endorsements and how he might handle Brown:
Last week, Dolan won key endorsements from Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman. While both strongly support the more establishment GOP path and are not well-liked by the conservative MAGA base, this is a way for Dolan to establish himself as the “governing conservative” in the race.
If Dolan wins the nomination, it could change the general election calculus in what we consider the most vulnerable Democratic race on the 2024 map: The more centrist and pragmatic Dolan could end up facing Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
While Taylor believes the race will be between Moreno and Dolan, she did mention the role LaRose could play:
The question is whether the Trump/Vance/Jordan triumvirate could be defeated by the more moderate DeWine/Portman coalition of voters in the GOP primary. That doesn’t happen often under Trump, so Moreno’s Club for Growth allies aired a up-to-date spot today that highlights Dolan’s past criticism of Trump.
The answer will lie in the composition of the electorate, which is still uncertain. Dolan, as he did in 2022, is expected to perform best in the three C categories. But he struggled with rural voters. If rural voters unite around Moreno, it could outweigh Dolan’s strength in the suburbs, which are decidedly less Republican. And then there’s the need to find out how many votes LaRose — who still has the ID after being elected twice in statewide elections despite having no money to compete — receives and whether his share eats more at Dolan or Moreno.
…
Moreno has even more ways to win this race than Dolan – especially if he and his allies can continue to remind people of their support for Trump, which will happen thanks to the press received during Trump’s visit – than Dolan. This could mean a repeat of 2022, when Dolan gained momentum behind schedule in the race but finished third. However, it was a seven-way field; this time there are only three candidates on the ballot. Whether LaRose’s voters stick with him or bail on Dolan, especially if they are the type of person swayed by DeWine and Portman’s blessing, could be decided as early as next Tuesday.
The Moreno campaign also highlighted how Dolan’s other state legislators questioned his past. State Sen. Niraj Antani wrote that Dolan “is simply not a Republican. He’s not even a moderate Republican. He is a Democrat” and expressed his support for Moreno.
We can not allow @ElectMattDolan win the primaries. He voted against the Heartbeat Bill, voted against Stand Your Ground, and voted for the $800 million gas tax. He’s just not a Republican. He’s not even a moderate Republican. He is a democrat. I’m in favor @berniemoreno. https://t.co/pBOVLgheGt
— Niraj Antani (@NirajAntani) March 13, 2024
Campaign also underlined statements of concern from other Republican state legislators, including State Rep. Gary Click, State Rep. Rodney Creech and State Rep. Re. Jennifer Gross.
Senate Democrats, who currently appear to support Moreno, are also involved. This tactic was used by both House and Senate Democrats in the 2022 midterms.
“In a statement, Moreno campaign spokesman Reagan McCarthy cited Democrats’ general belief in 2016 that Trump would be the easiest candidate for Hillary Clinton to defeat. “The same thing will happen to Sherrod Brown this year,” McCarthy said,” said piece.
Dolan’s campaign has also aggressively pushed back against what they say constitutes election interference. “National Democrats are supporting Bernie Moreno at the end of the primary because he is damaged, unelectable and unable to defeat Sherrod Brown. “Ohio Republicans will reject the attempt by Sherrod Brown’s allies to meddle in the primary,” Christopher Maloney, Dolan’s campaign consultant, told Townhall.
Meanwhile, this was decided by the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC). NO get involved in this elementary school, as Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) said in an interview with CBS News last July because he trusts that any of the three will be able to beat Brown.
NEW: Senate Democrats are meddling #OHSEN GOP main goal to strengthen Bernie Moreno
Duty and Country PAC, a group funded by the Senate Majority PAC, is gaining traction with an ad touting Moreno’s endorsement and support for Trump’s abortion ban https://t.co/5ejTQsSftN
— Ally Mutnick (@allymutnick) March 14, 2024
