The Ohio Senate race has always seemed to favor Republicans, but on Friday afternoon, Emerson College last vote in the race showed some particularly good news. Republican candidate J.D. Vance is leading Rep. Tim Ryan, the Democratic candidate, by 8 percentage points, 51 percent to Ryan’s 43 percent. Among undecided voters, who make up 4 percent in these final days, Vance’s advantage is even larger, as he leads by 9 percentage points, with 53 percent to Ryan’s 44 percent.
Ohio Poll#OHSen@JDVance1 51%@TimRyan 43%
4% undecidedWith the undecided
53% vs 53%
44% Ryanhttps://t.co/LaPMdBqglJ photo:twitter.com/50I26cBudy— Emerson College Poll (@EmersonPolling) November 4, 2022
The momentum is still with Vance. Emerson’s paper notes that since their October SurveyVance’s support rose 5 percentage points, while Ryan’s support fell 2 percentage points. In that poll, Vance led by just 1 percentage point, 46 percent to Ryan’s 45 percent.
Even larger majorities believe Vance will win regardless of who they plan to vote for, with 56 percent believing the Republican candidate will win. Forty-four percent expect Ryan to be elected.
The poll is disastrous for Ryan in other ways as well, most notably his and Vance’s advantage in men over women.
As Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, notes:
In mid-October, the men had a 13-point lead for Vance, and the women had a 10-point lead for Ryan. Over the past few weeks, Vance has widened his lead among the men to 18 points over Ryan, leading 57% to 39%, while Ryan’s lead among the women has shrunk to a single point, leading 47% to 46%.
The poll also found that the economy was the biggest issue for voters, as it had been, although its importance had increased to a larger majority of 47 percent. In a distant second place was “threats to democracy” with 14 percent, followed by “access to abortion” with 12 percent.
The latest poll was conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1, with 1,000 very likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Between last month’s poll, Oct. 6-7, and this one, Vance and Ryan met for two debates, both of which ended in disastrous results for the Democratic candidate.
Both candidates also appeared at a Fox News event Tuesday, where Ryan also took issue, especially with his track record. That event was watched by 2.9 million viewers, according to a FOX News Channel press release.
The poll results aren’t Ryan’s only recent embarrassment. The Democrat tweeted out a largely derided ad Friday featuring him at a shooting range, accompanied by the text, “Not bad for a Democrat.” But as many have responded, the ad had a few problems, and not just because of the embarrassment factor.
➡️ Symptoms: Terrible grip, posture and grouping.
➡️ Diagnosis: He had probably never fired a firearm before.
➡️ Treatment: NRA shooting training
125,000 NRA instructors train more than a million people each year. Learn from the best ➡️ https://t.co/eZr5wRYnzI photo:twitter.com/SCuqSO4LyY
— NRA (@NRA) November 5, 2022
He will have plenty of time to train after next Tuesday.
— 🇺🇸LBRB Designs🇺🇸 (@LBRBDesigns) November 5, 2022
Latest poll shows Vance with a +5.0 lead by RealClearPoliticswho sees the race as “GOP leaning” and predicts a “GOP Hold.” The seat is currently held by outgoing Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), who endorsed Vance.
