In the scorching summer days, as President Joe Biden’s average approval rating fell to a record low amid a tidal wave of national failures, policy missteps, and rhetorical “gaffes” (otherwise known as palpable aged age), most pundits began predicting an inevitable “red wave” of Republican electoral dominance in the November midterms. Midterms, which occur two years into a modern presidency, tend to favor the opposing party, and certain data points—such as forty years of inflation that was and is still raging like wildfire—suggested a mighty electoral reaction to Democratic single-party rule. At the time, we could also add a kind of “eye test”: Uncle Joe was (and still is), quite simply, way too aged and way too bad at it.
Then, from slow July through Labor Day weekend in early September, the momentum seemed to shift somewhat toward the incumbent party. Democrats largely outperformed expectations in special elections in Nebraska, Minnesota, and New York, and culturally conservative Kansas soundly rejected a pro-life effort to amend the state constitution to democratize abortion and let the state legislature decide Kansas’s abortion policy. Overall, for about four to six weeks, we began to see enough data to suggest that a “Dobbs retaliation”—one in which the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade would have the effect of galvanizing and mobilizing progressive voters—might be on the horizon. Some promising Republican Senate candidates in states where Trump is a reliable candidate, such as J.D. Vance in Ohio, seemed to be gaining no ground in the polls. Pundits shifted gears: The “red wave” might just be an amorphous “purple drop.” (Admittedly, some of us have suggested that not much has changed.)
Now, two and a half weeks before Election Day, we are back where we started earlier this year, as spring turned to summer. The red tide appears to be returning.
Republicans are now consistently ahead of Democrats in general congressional elections. As of this writing, the RealClearPolitics average shows Republicans up 3.3% in general congressional elections; only one of the last 10 polls shows a Democratic lead. The data gets even more captivating when you look a little under the hood of crosstabulations; in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, which had the highest R+4 in the general election, independent women moved a whopping 32 points toward Republicans (from D+14 to R+18) in just one month. (Take crosstabulations like these with a grain of salt, given their necessarily smaller sample sizes.) Meanwhile, Biden’s job approval rating has stabilized in the low 40s, putting him underwater by double digits; at least three major polls this month have shown his job approval in the high 30s.
The results of individual races across the country bear that out. In no less a brilliant blue Democratic stronghold than New York State, Democratic incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul is clinging to a shrinking single-digit lead over Republican challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin. In neighboring Connecticut, incumbent Sen. Richard Blumenthal appears to be holding a similarly shocking single-digit lead over Leora Levy. In Georgia, Republican incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp is cruising to victory over hardened election-denier Stacey Abrams; in Arizona, rising Republican superstar Kari Lake appears well-positioned for governor. In both the Peach State and the Grand Canyon State, Republican governors’ campaigns could carry to the finish line Republican Senate candidates — Herschel Walker and Blake Masters, respectively — who are neck and neck in the polls with their well-financed Democratic incumbent opponents.
The map is also getting wider, with Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, pouring millions of dollars into trying to reclaim New Hampshire. Meanwhile, national Democrats are trying to secure the Oregon governor’s mansion on candidate funding, while all but abandoning the Ohio playing field to Vance and the GOP. In neighboring Pennsylvania, felon-coddling, stroke-addled John Fetterman is falling, and the Keystone State Senate race with Dr. Mehmet Oz is now tied. Nevada, which went to both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, now looks like a likely Republican candidate.
In such an environment, when a huge 44% of voters (according to a Times/Siena poll) vote on economic issues, and Republicans are trusted far more than Democrats on those particular issues, it’s reasonable to expect the GOP to win a immense majority of high-profile, up-and-down races. Biden, earlier this week, tried to rekindle the magic of “Dobbs retaliation” by suggesting that national codification of Roe would be his top agenda item in January if Democrats held Congress, but even that centrality to abortion now seems woefully misguided: According to a poll this week from WPA Intelligence, voters believe the Democratic mainstream is “more extreme” on abortion than the Republican mainstream by nearly two to one.
The question, as always, for Republicans is what they will do if — perhaps when — they regain control of Congress. That question is doubly essential given two more years of guaranteed Democratic control of the White House. And it is to that question that Republican leaders, if they are lucky, will soon turn.
To learn more about Josh Hammer or read articles by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
