In compact: no, it is definitely too early to panic. It’s the August doldrums, many “normal” voters don’t turn out until September and October, and much of the Senate polling at this stage has been strikingly unrepresentative in the recent past. Republican consultants should take a breath and serene down theirbedwettingFor now, though, things aren’t going gangbusters, especially on the Senate side, for a party that recently expected to be on the brink of an electoral wave of biblical proportions. This tweet he made his rounds a few days ago, causing anxiety on the right and premature celebration on the left:
.@FiveThirtyEight Average:#PASen: :
Fetterman (D) 49.0% (+10.7)
Oz (R) 38.3%
.#AZSen: :
Kelly (D-inc) 51.1% (+10.2)
Champions (R) 40.9%
.#OHSsen: :
Ryan (D) 45.8% (+4.5)
Vance (P) 41.3— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 14, 2022
Let’s start by saying that I don’t think any of these margins will be sustainable in the coming months. IN OhioTrump-backed J.D. Vance runs what some Republican operatives do they warned this is a flawed campaign and imitation “moderate” Tim Ryan is vastly superior to him. The Democrat has been running a very well-funded general election campaign for weeks, largely unopposed. Donald Trump won this state quite easily each time (by seven points plus). It’s still a red-tinted year. Yes, Ohioans send progressive Sherrod Brown to the Senate every six years, but the rest of the state has become something of a GOP stronghold. I’d still call Vance the favorite to retain this spot, albeit with a margin that probably won’t be close A 21-point hit achieved by retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman in 2016.
Pennsylvania is a fiercely competitive state, so a double-digit victory for either candidate in this race seems rather far-fetched. Democrat John Fetterman largely withdrew from the campaign after suffering a stroke, I’m struggling a bit in his first major public appearance since the incident. He is also far to the left of the Pennsylvania electorate. But even though he’s an Interior Ministry official and hasn’t kept up with the changes, he’s still ahead, and Trump-backed celebrity doctor Dr. Oz is doing… basically nothing. He effectively gave up the field and did not gain any advantage making strange choices. The Republican Party’s unpleasant primaries did not improve the situation, and Republican voters still seem reluctant to rally around the party’s candidate. I would be shocked if the situation doesn’t consolidate significantly and the situation in Oz escalates in the coming weeks. At least in theory the race should be close. But this seat represents Democrats’ biggest opportunity for gain because the seat currently held by retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey looks in stern danger.
Come inside ArizonaSen. Mark Kelly (no) is the typical Democrat who votes with Chuck Schumer every time it matters. He is not an independent thinker or individualist. His voting record is virtually indistinguishable from Democratic senators representing deep blue states. Given President Biden’s unpopularity, terrible good/bad record, and widespread economic unrest, this potential surge should be extremely real for opposition parties. However, Kelly, riding a huge wave of money, is the favorite at the moment. Democrats are spending massive money to portray Trump-backed Republican Blake Masters as too conservative on abortion and the threat to Social Security. As it is is happening elsewhereattacks largely go unanswered as Republicans are crushed in fundraising (the turnkey abortion response would be for Kelly to support nine-month abortion on demand, a deeply unpopular and radical position). Masters is a intelligent but unproven candidate entering a high-stakes race. My guess is that this one will probably become a nail biter with a margin for error at some point. Right now, the odds are at least as good that Democrats will win the governor’s seat in Arizona as there are that Republicans will win back the Senate seat. We’ll see.
Another key chance for Senate Republicans to regain their strength has emerged Georgiawhere in the runoffs in January 2021, both Senate seats were lost due to lower GOP turnout (tens of thousands of red voters believed Trump’s claims about vote fraud and therefore decided it was not worth showing up). Every GOP senator led in the vote on election night 2020; everyone lost the overtime. The party has nominated Trump-backed star and UGA legend Herschel Walker to try to unseat incumbent Raphael Warnock. The Democrat has a huge war chest and forceful political skills, while his challenger is running something of a noiseless campaign. But the environment is generally favorable to Republicans and Walker is beloved in the state, so the competition is relatively tight. Walker is ahead of Gov. Brian Kemp, who maintains a steady mid-single-digit lead over Stacey Abrams, which raises the question of whether there will be enough ticket splitters to produce an outcome such as Kemp’s reasonably comfortable win plus Warnock’s re-election. For what it’s worth this recent survey (from a pollster I know nothing about) shows a wide lead for Kemp and a slim lead for Walker. A lot of money will be spent on this race:
Phillips Academy Survey from GEORGIA:
GA Government:
(R*) Brian Kemp 51.4% (+7.9)
(D) Stacey Abrams 43.5%GA-Sen:
(R) Herschel Walker 45.2% (+1.6)
(D*) Raphael Warnock 43.5%GA-Sauce:
(R*) Brad Raffensperger 50% (+15.9)
(D) Nguyen Bee 34.1%971 RV / 08/03-07 https://t.co/Xz0UxXQaw7 pic.twitter.com/ON2jdKB7wL
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 15, 2022
What about other massive races? North Carolina should go to the Republicans, but again, money is an issue and polls show a very competitive fight. Same Wisconsinin terms of competitiveness and expected result. IN NevadaAdam Laxalt may be the best Republican recruit in a series of high-profile failures (in this case, if the Republicans win, Trump will have something to complain about – if they do poorly, he will take stern criticism). , and incumbent Catherine Cortez-Masto is on the ropes. These trends keep cutting against democrats too:
Context:
2020: Democrats’ statewide lead on Election Day was 87,000
2018: 75 thousand
2016: 89 thousandSo now it’s just over half of what it was in 2020 and 2016.
Mainly a decrease in the number of votes and an raise in the number of independent fans, but that’s not all.#redwave
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) August 11, 2022
And although the very tardy primaries mean there is still no opponent for Maggie Hassan New Hampshirein which the incumbent Democrat participates uncertain position towards the massive final episode:
Saint poll Anselm of NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Do you think Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-State) has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, or is it time to give someone recent a chance?
39% – Deserves re-election
53% – Choose someone recenthttps://t.co/GNsDYOqcFZ pic.twitter.com/7jOMCoijRn— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 16, 2022
Saint poll Anselm of NEW HAMPSHIRE:
GOVERNMENT:
(R*) Sununu 48% (+19)
(D) Sherman 29%GEN VOTE:
Republicans 46% (+3)
Democrats 43%WORK APPROVAL:
(R) Presentation: 60/37
(D) Biden: 42/57
(D) Hassan: 44/51
(D) Kuster: 40/45
(D) Pappas: 42/451898 RV / 09/08-11 https://t.co/GNsDYOqcFZ
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 15, 2022
Bad news for Hassan and great news for ordinary Republicans. But as we learn, the candidates are not typical. The quality of candidates matters across the state. Very. Finally, do we need to talk Florida? There hasn’t been a poll in the Sunshine State’s general election for governor in months, and yesterday one finally failed. It shows that Ron DeSantis has a 7-8 point lead over his potential Democratic rivals, which sounds pretty good to me. But the same study showed Marco Rubio final by four points in the Senate race. Honestly, I thought it was a typo. In no universe is Rubio underperforming DeSantis by double digits. Similarly, in no universe do people rush to re-elect DeSantis en masse and then turn around to pull the lever for Democrat Val Demings for the Senate. Another recent poll on the race included Rubio comfortably forward. Another he showed his tie. The numbers are all over the map. I’m sure Rubio will win by a decent margin (by Florida standards), but hey – it’s “bedwetting season.” Nothing seems certain. (Update: Here’s a brand recent survey from Rubio gains 11 pointswhich seems high, but less ridiculous than his loss by four). I’ll leave you with this observation from an astute GOP analyst:
I don’t particularly know why, but the Senate polls, especially over the last few years, have somehow seemed to be much worse than the polls in other races. It’s true that I paid the most attention to this, but it still seems disproportionate to me https://t.co/E0ONGVGlVJ
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) August 16, 2022
Quite fair. On the other hand, this analysis indicates a good year, not a great year for the GOP – in circumstances that should be devastating for the ruling party. Meanwhile, the NRSC is here denial media reports of financial problems leading to premature moves aimed at exhaustion. We’ll see.
