It’s time to choose your survey, Georgia edition.
In delayed June, Quinnipiac released a spectacular poll that showed the state’s gubernatorial race was over, with incumbent Democratic senator Raphael Warnock crushing Republican candidate Herschel Walker by ten points. I didn’t address the poll at the time, but here’s a quick analysis: State-level Q polls have been particularly terrible in recent cycles, with some embarrassing mishaps ruining their reputation. Think Florida 2018 (up by about eight points in both statewide primary races) followed by a string of major misfires in 2020 (see link below). Many online reporters and analysts reacted to the Georgia numbers, noting that operatives on both sides dismissed them as an inexact picture of either race’s situation at the time – and it seemed quite telling that even Democrats were rushing to get it to say. journalists that the Quinnipiac study results were far-fetched:
An internal poll conducted during Walker’s campaign reveals a very different energetic that strategists in both parties reflect reality: a neck-and-neck race between Warnock and his Republican challenger. #gapol #gas pic.twitter.com/kI8R9s9joZ
— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) June 29, 2022
It was June 29th. Quinnipiac put Warnock on tenth down, Warnock’s inside information showed he was tied. And if Warnock was roughly tied with Walker, there’s no way Stacey Abrams would be deadlocked with Kemp, who is expected to be well ahead of her party’s Senate nominee. I was suspicious of both the Q-poll result for obvious reasonsbut also internal campaign elements that are often shared for political purposes and jokes. My guess at the time – after talking to Georgians and closely watching the state’s political battles in recent years – was that Kemp had a mid-single-digit lead over Abrams, while Walker was roughly tied with Warnock. Then this poll dropped a few days ago:
According to the latest Democratic poll Data for Progress#GAS: :
Herschel’s Walker (R) 49%
Raphael Warnock (no) 47%
Warnock -7 favorability rating#GAGov: :
Brian Kemp (right) 53%
Stacey Abrams (Germany) 44%
Kemp has a favorability rating of +3, while Abrams is underwater with a favorability rating of -9. https://t.co/R90Apjm1TJ— RRH Wybory (@RRHElections) July 8, 2022
Kemp leads by eight and Walker is ahead by a nose? Much more likely. I’m not sure I’d bet on either outcome (Kemp’s margin could end up being smaller and Walker could very well lose), but it’s crucial to keep in mind a national environment that’s absolutely terrifying for Democrats. Biden is an anchor around their necks in many states, most notably Georgia. Candidates representing the president’s party will have to significantly exceed his approval ratings, which may prove complex or impossible in some crucial races. In such a political climate, undecided voters are likely to oppose the ruling party quite strongly. However, candidates matter, and there were plenty of them ugly headlines for Herschel Walker over the past few weeks, which raises questions verification and readiness. There have been reports that his own staff was shocked by various revelations (language warning):
“He lied so much [including about previously-undisclosed children] This we don’t know what is true” the person said, adding that advisers have “zero” confidence in the candidate. Three people independently interviewed for this article called him a “pathological liar.”… “The campaign’s worst nightmare,” the source said. “It’s like shit on a train amidst a wreck.”…Coworkers had been secretly taunting Walker for months, according to the person and internal communications seen by The Daily Beast. They ridiculed his intelligence. They are afraid of him mood swings and instability. Employees fear that he may embarrass himself at any moment, reversing the campaign again and wasting energy on damage control. The overriding concern is that the stress and pressure of the campaign – particularly criticism and backlash – may make him “simply not mentally stable,” the source said.
And even some of the state’s major conservative voices were critical about his quasi-“basement” campaign:
If you want a wake-up call about problems with Herschel Walker’s campaign, consider this – I host the largest talk show in Atlanta, and my show airs in almost every market in the state. I invited every GOP Senate candidate for a full hour.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) July 7, 2022
That’s all. These were the questions. No surprises and you get an hour on the most listened to news/talk station in America, which happens to be located in Atlanta, which is where over 50% of your vote would come from. Every candidate did this except Walker.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) July 7, 2022
Lots of red flags. And yet… from my perspective, as of early to mid-July, Walker’s pick is currently 50/50 at worst. Warnock is a gifted communicator and a formidable, well-financed opponent – but he’s got that, too his own stern issues on many fronts. Sometimes the waves of years bring even candidates with stern flaws into office. Walker is an icon and legend in the state with a lot of goodwill behind him. And cycles don’t get much redder than this. Nail biter. Once again, it looks like the state of Georgia may take control of the United States Senate. Whoa, boy. By the way, Biden’s pressure on Democrats isn’t just about the Red Team waving pompoms. His side knows it too. Remember Abrams he refused to appear to an event that both Biden and Harris attended in her own state regarding her signature “voter suppression” issue (built on a debunked lie) last year? Democrats in other battleground states have passed Art similar approach: :
When President Joe Biden visited Ohio on Wednesday, both leading Democrats running for statewide office in November had different seats. The decisions by Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan and gubernatorial candidate Nan Whaley to stay away from the president in a state Biden lost by more than 8 percentage points in 2020 highlight the disparity between how the White House views Biden’s political power and candidates’ views in the field … This was not the first time Biden visited Ohio six times as president. Ryan and Whaley were also absent in May, when he visited a manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Cincinnati and demanded that Congress pass legislation to make the United States more competitive with China. In February it was the same storywhen he spoke in Lorain, Ohio…
Thank you, but no, thank you over and over again. Republicans will spend the next four months mercilessly tying Democrats to their party’s leader from coast to coast. And with even modest success, they will win a lot of seats.
