Why is Iowa critical?
Because it is so.
The same reason Kardashians weakens the cover of magazines in the supermarket: they are certain because they are.
In two weeks from today Iowans – some Iowans, will go to their place in their city or neighborhood, listen to the speeches for one presidential candidate or another and vote for their favorite.
The Grand Avenue in des Moines will be full of reporters, campaign staff, influence and hangers, when they talk to each other, passing rumors overheard in a bar, nuggets heard from network correspondents talking outside the camera, and objects overheard by the waiter at the Chop 801 house.
And the results will matter.
Trump and Cruz on the R side, A Clinton and Sanders on the D page are directed to walk on the message on the subject of the news: they must show their fans that they have an organizational force to win, but do not want to set the bar bar too high. This means that if they go in second place, they must be able to explain this to the skeptical (and tired) press body.
On the Republican side, if Ted Cruz appears first and Donald Trump in second place (or lower), it may not mean the destruction in the Trump campaign, but they will have to win all stops to win in New Hampshire.
If Trump lost the first two tests, the receipt could be outside the rose, and he would have to cure him for the next two or three months, like everyone else.
On the other hand, if Jeb Bush was to get low single support numbers, there will be a lot of pressure to get out and quit his support (and money) at one of the other candidates of the “Estabise”, who eight later eight days later eight days later eight days later eight days later eight days later eight days later eight days later eight days later eight days later .
This also applies to other establishment candidates.
It is likely that candidates such as Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum, perhaps Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul or some others decide to throw a towel after the results from the club’s places appeared.
On the democratic side, if Bernie Sanders defeats Hillary Clinton (in no case is certainly this letter), the specter of 2008 will be in the foreground.
Sidebar
Senator Barack Obama won the Iowa Democratic Clubs in 2008. When I say “he won”, I mean he got more votes than anyone else: 37.6 percent. “He won” because Hillary Clinton and John Edwards divided the remaining 60 percent almost inside.
If Edwards were not in the race, the overwhelming percentage of his voices would go to Hillara, not Obama. Obama would be an fascinating story, but we would probably watch Hillary Clinton sworn in on the western front of the capitol on January 20, 2009.
Final side belt
Clinton’s campaign seriously takes on the challenge from Bernie Sanders. The tone of the debate on Sunday evening was said that the Hillary Clinton campaign was no longer on the national political scene, but showed significant worry.
As if the Hillary campaign did not have enough, which she could worry about, Donald Trump presented separate attention during the Republican debate last week, suggesting that he thinks that if he was nominated, New York could win.
This caused Clinton’s planners back to the spreadsheets to look at the general election plan.
Why? Because democrats usually do not plan to spend much more than the subway tariffs to win New York. Similarly, GOP plans to spend a lot on Texas.
But if Trump is a nominee and makes a real effort to compete in New York, Democrats will have to redirect tens of millions from places such as Florida and Ohio, where they know They will have a challenging battle.
It is not likely that any of the other Republican candidates would approach more than a cursory effort in New York, so DS are (or should be) in ABT mode – no one but Trump.
So Iowa matters.
