These last 26 days of the 2016 presidential campaign may turn out to be the ugliest, most embarrassing, and least educational moments of our lives.
The entire campaign has been reduced to the question: Has Donald Trump abused (pun intended) more women in more disgusting ways than Bill Clinton?
Here’s my prediction: It won’t matter. Other than forcing us to change the channel on our kitchen TV from a news show to something on the History Channel about World War II, I don’t think any significant number of people will change their vote from Clinton to Trump or vice versa.
This will likely cause people who are fed up with the whole mess to turn off their TVs and read cozy crime novels on their Kindles until it all blows over.
As I write this on Thursday morning, the RealClearPolitics average of national polls shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 6.2 percentage points: 48.0 to 41.8.
It doesn’t seem insurmountable, but it’s really, really, really substantial. First of all, Trump hasn’t led in any poll that’s been in the field since October 3rd. That’s the last 10 days.
Second, it’s Clinton’s biggest lead in the RCP average since Aug. 8, when she led by 7.2 percentage points, 47.3 to 40.1, after two conventions, and Trump spent almost the entire infamous week bashing the Kahn family. It usually takes four or five days for events to be reflected in the polls.
Last night, ABC News and others reported that the Trump campaign has decided that Virginia is lost and is shifting all of its resources to places where it still thinks it has a chance: Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Ohio. As one campaign official said, Trump is essentially campaigning in four states.
State polls — at least the publicly available ones — aren’t conducted as frequently as national polls, but here’s a look at how polls have stacked up in October in the last four key states:
Florida – Clinton +2.5
Pennsylvania – Clinton +8.7
North Carolina – Clinton +1
Ohio – Clinton +2.3
As I said over a month ago, if Virginia were out of the election (which it currently is not), I would skip voting for president because I don’t want to vote for Clinton and I won’t vote for Trump.
Regardless of whether Clinton wins by 15,000 or 150,000 votes (Obama won in 2012 by 149,300 votes), she will receive only Virginia’s 13 electoral votes.
I may change my mind when I go to the Electoral Commission office next week to vote early, but I don’t think so.
In Virginia, we vote in local and state elections in odd-numbered years, and there is no race for United States Senate this year, so the only other candidate on my ballot in Alexandria, Virginia, will be the member of Congress for the 8th District, and I will vote for Republican Charles Hernick.
Before you hit SEND, I wear my title of establishment Republican with pride. I’m pretty sure I’ve been a Republican a lot longer than Donald Trump.
As for being in the Beltway? I can see the Beltway from my back door and I’m pretty sure I’m in the middle of it.
If you are a Trump supporter, I urge you to go out and vote and loudly declare your allegiance. In this, we are not enemies, but merely political opponents.
Is it possible that I am wrong about the result? Of course.
I didn’t think Hillary would even run. Or Donald. And when Trump ran, I was certain he would never be nominated.
This is why elections are held.
