Before Election Day, there was little doubt about Ohio’s place in the presidential race, but Tuesday’s results still held many surprises. One-time President Donald Trump was not hampered by the Jan. 6 riot, his 34 criminal convictions, or his own increasingly virulent rhetoric — including demonizing Haitian migrants living in Springfield. Instead of matching his 8-point margin of victory in 2016 and 2020, he exceeded it.
U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown edged Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by almost 3 points, but was still well behind his Republican rival Bernie Moreno. As the Cleveland-area businessman noted in his victory speech, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance is vacating his U.S. Senate seat, making Moreno the state’s senior senator and setting off a mad rush to nominate Gov. Mike DeWine for the open seat.
And despite polls showing principled opposition to gerrymandering, Ohio voters nevertheless rejected the anti-gerrymandering Amendment 1.
Analyzing the results, several political scientists say the 2024 elections will clearly strengthen the Republican advantage in Ohio, and while Democrats may find some glowing spots in the results, their future is uncertain.
“This reluctance has disappeared.”
Ohio State political scientist Paul Beck has focused most of his attention on the U.S. Senate race and the Issue 1 contest.
“Moreno didn’t do as well, almost as well, as Trump did in Ohio, but he still had the margin of Trump voter support to carry him through, and he did,” Beck said. “Sherrod Brown has won in the past, but he has won in the past against a weaker opponent than Moreno has proven.”
Still, he argued that the biggest advantage Moreno brought to the talks was Trump’s support and a broader shift in partisan sentiment in Ohio.
“I didn’t want to call Ohio a red state,” he said, “even though the Republicans had the advantage in Ohio. I think that reluctance has passed.”
In a chicken-or-egg conundrum, Beck still wonders whether voters are committed to the party or the candidate. He leans toward the candidate and notes that “Trump is ahead of other Republicans.” But what will happen in 2026? “We’ll see,” Beck said, arguing there’s a good chance the future Trump administration will overspend, which will see a midterm Democratic rebound.
“Now, is that enough in Ohio to elect some Democrats statewide?” – he wondered aloud without answering. “There will be multiple statewide races in 2026 and a real Donnybrook for the Republican nomination for governor. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.”
As for the failure of Issue 1, Beck primarily pointed to the voting language drafted by opponents of the amendment. “I’ll call it dishonesty,” he said, arguing that many voters don’t know what a “yes” vote would mean. At the same time, Beck argued that the Yes campaign could also be given some blame because it framed the Yes vote in negative terms – prohibiting gerrymandering – rather than presenting it as a vote for compromise or impartiality.
Anchor instead of halves
University of Akron political scientist David Cohen was surprised that Trump increased his margin of victory. He expected Trump to win, but Cohen expected the lead to narrow slightly. He described Trump’s victory as the “final nail in the coffin” for Ohio’s swing status and argued it would have solemn down-ballot consequences.
“That 11-point lead made it virtually impossible for Sherrod Brown to win,” he said, “because it was a huge hurdle to overcome in terms of getting people to split their tickets.”
“His margin in Cuyahoga County is down,” he noted, comparing the unofficial 2024 results to Brown’s last election in 2018.
“I mean, as a statewide Democratic candidate, you can’t expect to win if your vote percentage is dropping in places like Cuyahoga,” Cohen explained. “This is where he needs to run up the score.
He attributed this relative lack of enthusiasm to the presidential candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket. Whatever the reasons why Harris’ candidacy failed to mobilize voters the way Joe Biden did in 2020, the decline in turnout in the Democratic stronghold is tough to overcome.
“So instead of a cloak,” Cohen described, “this presidential candidate is then an anchor.”
At the same time, Cohen said, it’s notable that Democrats appear to have retained competitive U.S. House seats currently held by Reps. Greg Landsman, Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes.
Looking ahead: “I see a lot of red,” Cohen said. But even as Democrats face a tough and uncertain future, he noted that midterms are often a rude awakening for the incumbent president’s party. With several statewide offices up for election – including the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Vice President-elect J.D. Vance – Cohen’s biggest question is whether Brown will decide to return.
“Is he going to challenge this person in the 2026 special election? Will he run for governor? What is he going to do?” Cohen wondered aloud. “And when Sherrod makes his decision, there will be musical chairs on the Democratic side.”
The Ohio Capital Journal reached out to Brown’s campaign but did not immediately receive a response.
“Hop in the Gut”
Brianna Mack, an assistant professor of politics and government at Ohio Wesleyan University, compared the 2024 U.S. Senate race to the 2022 contest.
“When these numbers came in, I couldn’t help but feel like it was a repeat of 2022,” she said. In that race, former congressman Tim Ryan ran a labor- and working-class-focused campaign, consciously taking a cue from Brown’s policies, but Ryan was unable to capture labor strongholds like Trumbull and Mahoning counties, which Brown won in 2018.
Now, in 2024, Brown himself has been unable to replicate those victories.
– It’s a punch in the gut, isn’t it? Mack said.
One of the challenges she pointed to was the terrain where the campaigns took place. She said that without a general election debate, campaign ads set the narrative.
“You know, I’m glad I can finally go back to watching YouTube and not have to deal with three and four Sherrod Brown and Moreno commercials,” she said. “But ultimately, these ads defined what the race was about for both of these candidates.
She argued that Democrats now have some work to do. Tentacle
“I think it’s probably time to let the old guard go,” she said, “because while moderate Democrats are still attractive, all the moderate leaders that people love are as old as rocks.”
“Even though we whippersnappers want progressive things,” she continued, “the rest of the party doesn’t, and the Republican Party has created a compelling narrative that these types of progressive attitudes will ruin citizen gains.” “
As for Vance’s open Senate seat, she’s interested in who gets the nod and curious which way Democrats will turn in 2026. After Ohioans handed Brown his “retirement papers,” as she framed them, Mack didn’t he is completely sure which option is best for the party triggers him back.
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