So we’re really going to trust exit polls when so many pre-election polls were wrong, huh? Yes, for three reasons. First, not “all” the polls were wrong. Hillary has won the popular votewhich seems to be the best most polls had predicted. The consensus had her winning by three to four points, so the margin was off, but within the margin of error (and our system relies on the Electoral College, so complaining about the popular vote misses the point and ignores essential factors). It’s also worth noting that quite a few state polls were broadly exact, while others were embarrassingly off. Very The “models” that put Clinton’s chances of winning at over 90 percent were incorrect. Second, unlike pre-election polls, which require some guesswork, exit polls are based on tens of thousands of people who actually voted. Third, while even finalized exit poll is still imperfect, this is the best data we have to try to unravel what just happened. And now let’s get to the point:
(1) It’s too early to draw any firm conclusions about turnout totals, because votes will be counted for days. We know that after having D+7 and D+6 districts in 2008 and 2012, this year brought D+4 divisions. Many Obama voters didn’t show up this time. This is what Democrats get for nominating an uninspiring (at best) candidate. A whopping 90 percent of Republican voters supported Trump. Eighty-nine percent of Democrats were with her. Independents supported Trump by 6 points, about the same margin that Romney did in that group four years ago. The GOP base went home. Too many of the frail Democratic base stayed home. And these are points it’s worth repeating, especially in the face of hysterical breakdowns:
Clinton suffered her biggest losses in places where Obama was strongest among white voters. This is not a plain story about racism
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 9, 2016
For all the talk of “fear of a black president,” many voters were more likely to vote for a black president than a liberal one.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) November 9, 2016
(2) Demographically, Hillary benefited from the gender gap with women, but her struggles to win over men overshadowed that advantage. Clinton won among millennials by 18 points (white millennials narrowly went Trump’s way), while voters over 45 fell into Trump’s column. Trump won among white voters by 21 points, one point better than Romney. The GOP candidate also beat Romney among blacks and Latinos (!!) voters — albeit slightly. Nevertheless, three-quarters of nonwhite voters supported Clinton, something the GOP can’t ignore forever. You can remember a conversation Republicans losing white college graduates for the first time in 60 years to Trump. He ultimately won that group by four points. He also won a majority of white women and 67 percent of whites without a college degree. He lost narrowly among married women (which is usually fatal for Republicans), but he won seven points among Catholics — and he kept Clinton winning with just 51 percent of union voters. For the first time, voters went for Hillary. Late movers went for Trump. Obamacare’s nasty surprises and Hillary’s problems with the FBI probably had an impact.
(3) The “candidate characteristics” part of the numbers is crazy. Hillary was crushed among voters who wanted a candidate who cared about them (+23), had relevant experience (+82), and had a good grasp of the situation (+40). Trump won one category, voters who wanted change (+69), which was the largest group of the four. Sixty-three percent of voters said they were bothered by Clinton’s email scandal. Her popularity among U.S. voters in 2016 was ugly (44/54), and people called her an incredible landslide (36/61). She lost. Trump did worse both times, and he won. Fifteen percent of Americans who have an unfavorable opinion of Trump voted for him. Think about that. Sixty-one percent of actual voters had an unfavorable opinion of Trump. Sixty percent said he was not qualified to be president. Sixty-three percent said he lacked the presidential temperament. Seventy percent were concerned about his treatment of women. This was the person who won the election. Peak 2016.
(4) On the issues at stake, Clinton won the “Commander in Chief” test and had a clear advantage on foreign policy. But Trump was more trusted on the most essential issue: the economy. Nearly two-thirds of voters said the U.S. economy was in bad shape. Only 13 percent of voters said immigration was the most essential issue, with Trump dominating. Overall, only a quarter of U.S. voters favored a deportation-based immigration policy. More than six in 10 said the country was headed in the wrong direction. numerous television appearances Earlier in the day, yesterday, I talked about how Clinton had all the obvious structural advantages (poll leads, better field performance, huge spending advantage, etc.), while Trump had historical tailwinds and fundamentals (three consecutive terms for a single party are occasional, changing electoral dynamics, etc.) on his side. Which set of factors will prevail? We got our answer, clamorous and clear.
(5) Some highlights from key Senate races, where GOP senators won decisive or surprising victories over Trump in their (swing) states: ohio, Rob Portman He won women by six points, and won Ohioans ages 25-39 by a comfortable margin. He won the entire state by 21 points (Trump won by eight points). Florida, Marco Rubio won among women, won among 25- to 39-year-olds, and nearly tied his Democratic opponent with Latinos, with 48 percent of the vote. He outstripped Trump by about seven points. And in Wisconsin, Ron Johnson 18-24 year olds by nine points. His win was about two and a half points better than Trump’s. I’ll leave you with this. When you don’t have anything nice to say…
Sanders campaign has ‘nothing nice’ to say about election results https://t.co/dVIRxLhVuj By @TPM
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 9, 2016
