I’ll get to my suggestion in a moment, but first let’s look at the progress – or lack thereof – in the work of the ad hoc committee of senators on a possible resolution. President Trump firmly rejected Lindsey Graham’s recent proposal to reopen closed parts of the federal government, Then negotiate on border security, z ill-considered Presidential declaration of “emergency” powers as a backstop in the event of no deal. But Graham was also vigorous in another arena, teaming up with a group of senators from both parties to possibly hammer out a compromise deal that could potentially win 60 votes in the U.S. Senate. The Washington Post Office has some details: :
New A bipartisan group of rank-and-file senators has formed to discuss ways to end the weeks-long government shutdownand talks between congressional leaders and the White House have stalled. But if President Trump and Democratic leaders don’t find common ground, it’s unclear what the rank-and-file talks might yield…[West Virginia Democrat Joe] Manchin said “nothing seems to be working” to end the partial government shutdown over Trump’s demands for border wall money. “Well, I think it’s important to recognize that you have a bipartisan group of people who are very focused on forging a path through the desert,” said Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)…Graham attended Monday’s meeting of the bipartisan negotiating group. Other participants include: Sens. Christopher A. Coons (D-Del.), Ben Cardin (D-Ala.), Doug Jones (D-Ala.), Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Rob Portman (Ohio), Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.).
But where is Mitch McConnell in all this? He has been conspicuously absent from the negotiating table and subsequent press discussions in recent weeks, after President Trump responded by abruptly shifting attention away from the Senate government funding bill that was passed by the upper house in a voice vote in December. Since that significant change that precipitated the partial shutdown, McConnell has sidestepped and simply stated that over and over again that he will only submit a bill that will be signed by the president. WaPo says The majority leader is not very hopeful about the prospects for success of the bipartisan “gang”, but he does not discourage talks:
McConnell’s allies were Monday was not hopeful that the key to breaking the deadlock was cross-party talks between rank-and-file senators. McConnell continues to believe that Trump, Pelosi and Schumer must agree to a solution to succeed, they stressed. McConnell is not discouraging individual senators from brainstorming or strategizingaccording to a senior Senate GOP leadership adviser, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe his view, but his thinking on how to solve the problem has not changed. “As long as the answer remains no, he probably won’t have a productive role to play,” said Josh Holmes, McConnell’s former chief of staff and a close confidant of the Senate leader, speaking of Democrats’ resistance to the funding negotiation wall. Holmes said that if Democrats came to the table with demands in exchange for wall funding, it could prompt McConnell to become more closely involved in the negotiations.
Because public opinion’s favor intermediate agreement to end the shutdown, Republicans should pressure Democrats to come up with ideas while offering their own concessions and proposals. Certainly some Democrats would be willing to trade various provisions they want for more border security funding, some of which would go to building more fences — something Democrats have repeatedly supported even in the recent past. This is the key point. In case you missed it, Marc Thiessen gives us a little history:
Democrats were for the wall before they were against it @marcthiessen I’m writing https://t.co/CL8qe9Q2ub
— Washington Post Opinions (@PostOpinions) January 13, 2019
With this information in mind, how about the idea of Democratic public leadership? basically to allocate a certain dollar amount (perhaps in the context of Trump’s main question) for additional funding for border security? Yes, this money would go towards the “holistic approach” that everyone agrees on, but a significant portion would go towards new barriers. in return, Congress will follow them Democrats’ preferred sequence reopening the government: After reaching a tentative compromise, the House and Senate could pass six of the seven remaining budget bills passed by consensus, and then extend the deadline for transferring DHS funds for another month or so to get the details of the agreed-upon border security dollar escalate to clear. If either side tries to pull the rug out from under the other during this process, another partial shutdown will occur within a few weeks (DHS only). This seems reasonable to me. Is there a convincing argument that this is not the case?
Meanwhile, many Democrats – especially House members from swing districts – are expressing concern about Pelosi’s persistent “no” strategy and are publicly signaling support for additional barriers (as requested by the Border Patrol). The White House is clearly trying to exploit Democratic divisions group invitation opposition MPs to confer with the president on this matter:
Some NEW products from/ @JakeSherman: The White House is inviting a group of House Democrats to meet this week to discuss border security
— Heather Caygle (@heatherscope) January 14, 2019
Will all invited Democrats decline the invitation? Perhaps yes, as prospects for a constructive movement they remain rather dimaccording to the best connected Fox News producer on the hill. High-level behind-the-scenes talks are simply not happening as the impasse drags on, which he says is highly unusual:
Washington’s longtime hands are baffled by the government shutdown. I’ve never seen a crisis where there wasn’t offstage negotiation. Backchannel conversations. Late nights. Weekend sessions.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 14, 2019
I would humbly offer my imperfect suggestion above as a possible breakthrough. It may not work, but nothing does. Trump could point out that Democrats have pledged more money for more physical barriers along the border, and Democratic leaders could accurately say that they haven’t agreed to any specific details until Republicans approve their overall timeline for ending the shutdown. I’ll leave you with new Quinnipiac poll showing Americans who disagree with Democrats on whether there is a crisis at the southern border, but place most of the (unpopular) blame for the shutdown on Trump and his party.
