How a handful of states and districts could decide who would govern Congress

WASHINGTON — Republicans and Democrats will spend billions of dollars and countless hours campaigning across the country ahead of November’s midterm elections, even though control of Congress will likely be decided by a relatively diminutive number of votes in the presidential election and voters who actually cast ballots for their preferred candidate.

According to an analysis by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, in only four of the 35 and 18 House of Representatives districts out of 435 electoral districts does each candidate have an equal chance of winning. The rest are classified as lean, probable or solid for one side or the other. Some ratings will potentially change in a tumultuous election year.

Combined with generally low turnout in the midterm elections, which has exceeded 50% only once in the last century, a particularly narrow margin of Americans was able to determine whether President Donald Trump and Republicans would maintain their threefold political control over Washington during the final two years of Trump’s term.

Shifting the Senate from Republican to Democratic control would have sweeping impacts, including confirming nominees for Trump administration vacancies, federal judgeships and possible Supreme Court vacancies.

Changing the color of the House from red to blue will likely determine whether Trump and possibly members of his cabinet face impeachment proceedings in that chamber.

The most likely outcome experts see at this early stage is losing the House of Representatives and keeping the Senate, perhaps with a smaller majority in the upper house. However, that could change in the coming months as primary election results will determine which candidates advance to the November general election.

The first primaries will take place on March 3 and last until September, and the 16th in June itself.

Widely publicized efforts by several Republican and Democratic state legislatures to redraw the boundaries their seats in the US House of Representatives may also be a variable. So far, however, neither side has gained a real advantage, he claims analysis from Erin Covey, editor of the Cook Political Report for the House of Representatives.

“While it is unclear how many states will have new maps in 2026, we predict that the most likely scenario is a false scenario in which neither party loses seats due to redistricting,” she wrote.

With several competitive races in the general election, the stakes will be high and interest will be high. Leaders of both political parties, as well as outside groups, are likely to focus their campaign spending and advertising on those relatively few contests and voters who will decide control of Congress.

Trump fears impeachment

Trump has repeatedly lamented the historical norm that the president’s party tends to lose seats midterms, including: in January, when he addressed House Republicans at the Kennedy Center.

“Whether it’s a Republican or a Democrat, whoever wins the presidency, the other party will win in the midterms,” he said. “And it doesn’t make sense because… we’ve had the most successful first year of any president in history.”

Trump also warned that if Republicans lose the House, he will face impeachment proceedings for a third time. He was impeached twice during his first administration.

“You have to win in the midterms, because if we don’t win in the midterms, they’ll just find a reason to impeach me,” he said. “I will be impeached.”

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., are confident that GOP candidates will win enough races to ensure they retain control over which bills come to the floor and which are not up for debate.

“I think they will pass it on to adults,” Johnson said during a news conference in early February. “I think Republicans will be able to continue and expand our majority to continue to govern.”

Johnson said at a separate news conference that he believed Americans should have confidence in the results of the midterm elections, but urged the Senate to pass a modern, nationwide voter ID requirement which House lawmakers recently approved.

“I think we can have confidence in the election result, but I will tell you there are still serious concerns that the law is not being rigorously enforced in some parts of the country,” Johnson said.

Voting in federal elections is illegal for non-citizens, and anyone found guilty could face fines and up to a year in prison. According to him, there are uncommon cases of people who are not eligible to vote who actually vote analysis from the Bipartisan Policy Center, data collected by the Heritage Foundation, a particularly conservative think tank.

The BPC study “found only 77 cases of foreign voting between 1999 and 2023” and that “there is no evidence that foreign voting was ever significant enough to influence the election outcome.”

Democrats are fighting for control

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, both of New York, are as confident as their GOP counterparts that Democrats will regain power, though the primary is the deciding factor.

Jeffries said during a mid-February news conference that he supported any Democrat in the House seeking re-election, calling the primary a “reality” of the country’s political system while taking aim at the Senate.

“Every two years we have to go back to people to present arguments and convince them to extend our two-year employment contract. It’s simply a way of life,” he said. “It must be nice to have a six-year term. But we don’t have that luxury, so in many districts across the country this will mean an active primary.”

Democrats need to pick up four more Senate seats to regain control of that chamber, which is especially high given this year’s map.

Cook Political Report classifies Senate races are in Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina, giving Democrats two possible additions if they can keep the seat open in the Wolverine State and Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia secures re-election.

New Hampshire’s open seat is leaning toward remaining in Democrat hands, while the seats of Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan and Ohio Sen. Jon Husted are leaning toward Republicans securing re-election.

Minnesota’s open seat will likely remain blue, according to the report. The open seats in Iowa and Texas will likely remain Republican. Democrats and Republicans view the remainder of the Senate campaign as solid.

Apart from 18 seats in the House categorized as a result of Cook’s toss-ups, another 14 lean Democratic and four lean Republican. This means that just 8% of House races are truly or somewhat competitive, although this will likely change after the primary elections determine which candidates qualify for the general election.

The GOP holds a very slim majority in the House of Representatives, 218 to 214, and has three vacancies, making even a few Republican defeats highly problematic for the party’s leadership and advantageous for Democrats.

“Even a few places can make a difference.”

Timothy M. Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said during the midterm elections, “the party that doesn’t control the White House usually does quite well, wins a few seats and so on.

“Therefore, given how closely divided the U.S. House and Senate are, even a few seats could make a difference.”

Hagle said people who don’t feel very committed to one political party or another, often referred to as independent or swing voters, will expect candidates to address “kitchen issues” such as jobs, health care and cost of living.

“If you want to win an election, you have to look beyond your basics,” he said.

But Hagle noted that politicians are finding it increasingly challenging to convince people to vote, even as the internet and social media have become part of everyday life, giving candidates a greater chance to hear their message directly.

Voter turnout data from the University of Florida Elections Lab shows that over the past century, less than half of eligible voters cast ballots in midterm elections, with the exception of 2018, when the percentage peaked at 50.1%.

“And one aspect of this that is a little more modern is that our politics today is very partisan, hyper-partisan, and I think it has turned a lot of people off,” Hagle said. “And that’s why they really just don’t want to get involved.”

Hagle said that combined with mid-cycle redistricting in several states and a long-term decline in competitive seats due to gerrymandering, it has led some politicians to change the way they communicate with voters.

“You see the parties trying to talk about… things that they have achieved,” he said. “The Republicans are in control, so they have to do it. And the Democrats will say, ‘Well, this is what we want to do.’ But the problem is that it is often easier to motivate people through fear.”

“In other words, if the party is doing a good job, people will say, ‘Okay. That’s kind of what you were hired to do. So keep it up.’ Whereas if you say, ‘Oh, this party, if you leave them in control or take control, they’re going to do these terrible things.’ That tends to be motivating,” Hagle added. “And that’s one of the reasons you see such toxic messages.”