Everyone knows how biased the polls are in favor of the Democrats (even the far-left Michael Moore admits it) and things get sillier as polls start to surprisingly show greater support for Trump closer to the election. But this year the polls NO turned to Trump as much as they did just before the election this time in 2016. Not a single national poll listed in “Real Clear Politics” he has Trump in front of him. According to Rasmussen Reports, then the most correct pollster in 2016, Hillary Clinton had a two-point lead, which is by how much she ultimately won the popular vote. This year, however, Rasmussen outperformed Biden even more, by three points. Nearly all major polls show Trump ahead in swing states.
To the average American who isn’t paying attention, it looks terrible. This is dishonesty on the part of major polling companies and MSM reporting on the race, deliberately intended to discourage people from bothering to vote for Trump.
The reality is completely different. Trump could keep winning Electoral College and a landslide loss of the popular vote, so Rasmussen’s poll isn’t particularly concerning. Trump knows how to focus on swing states to win the Electoral College, which Hillary Clinton also didn’t understand.
Early voting results in swing states favor Republicans. They initially appeared to favor Democrats, as many Republicans chose to wait and vote in person this year rather than mail ballots out of fear of voter fraud. But as in-person ballots began arriving, Republicans began to catch up. Traditionally, more Republicans than Democrats choose to vote on Election Day.
Professor Larry Schweikart was close next early return of ballots in swing states. There are Republicans in Florida is doing better than at this time in 2016. In 2016, Democrats cast 96,400 more votes than Republicans the night before the election. But by Sunday, Republicans had already cut Democrats’ lead beyond that amount. In 2016, Trump won Florida by 113,000 votes. Even the leftist ABC News/Washington Post Office vote has Trump wins Florida by 2 points.
In Arizona (where I said over a month ago that it was ridiculous to worry about losing to Biden), Republicans cast over 123,000 more ballots than Democrats in Maricopa County. The gap between Republicans and Democrats voting in Maricopa County at this time is even wider than it was at this time in 2016 – a sign that Trump will win Arizona by a larger margin. As rural parts of Arizona edge out liberal Tucson, Maricopa County essentially decides the state’s fate. More people have voted in Maricopa County than during the entire 2016 election, reflecting excitement for Trump. The polls look good really good in the state too. Rasmussen is ahead of Trump by 4 points beyond the margin of error, Susquehanna is ahead by 1, and Trafalgar is ahead by three points.
Trafalgar was also very correct in 2016, correctly showing Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan when most others thought he would lose there. This year, Robert Cahaly from Trafalgar predicts Trump will win the Electoral College by at least 270 points.
In North Carolina, while Democrats returned 265,000 more votes so far, at the same time in 2016 they returned 310,000 ballots and lost the state by 3.2 points. Mainstream polls To have two candidates are tied, with Rasmussen and Trafalgar ahead of Trump.
In Ohio, 48% of returned ballots were from Republicans, much more than the 39% returned by Democrats. Trafalgar has Trump gains 4 points and Fox News has he has an advantage of 3 points. In Michigan, 41% of early voting requests came from Republicans and the same percentage returned them. In contrast, Democrats claimed 39% of the vote and returned the same percentage. Trafalgar has Trump gains 2 points and Fox News has he has an advantage of 3 points.
In Texas, even in mainstream polls To have Trump’s victory. Rasmussen has it before a protected margin 7 points. There are votes from Republican areas growing. Suburban counties like Hays and Denton saw both voter registration and turnout increases, with turnout outpacing increases in registered voters. These increases were larger than increases in more urban counties.
These are key swing states that Trump is likely to win and carry 275 electoral votes. In 2016, Trump also unexpectedly won Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Maine. Although his ranking in all mainstream polls in these states is mostly low, Hillary Clinton further stated lose in many swing states in 2016, where she averaged a 4.8-point lead in the polls. Trump is campaigning heavily in Pennsylvania, which suggests he may win.
The black vote is down everywhere, and because these voters traditionally favor Democrats, that hurts Democrats. Registered Republicans since 2016 increased in swing states, where the number of registered Democrats has largely declined.
There have been some reputable polls showing that Trump will win, they are just rarely heard from within the MSM. Institute of Democracy/Sunday express I just released A vote 1,500 likely electors, meaning Trump won the Electoral College by a vote of 326 to 212. This gives him an advantage over Biden in states ranging from 49% to 42%. He even wins Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Stony Brook political scientist Helmut Norpoth created a presidential election prediction model that has correctly predicted the winning candidate in 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. It predicts the winner based on which candidate had the better vote in the primary election. Norpoth’s model predicts a 91% chance for Trump to be re-elected, giving him 362 electoral votes. The model gave him only an 87% chance of winning in 2016.
So Schweikart predicts that the GOP could take back the House with one or two seats. Why will Trump win despite the devastation caused by Covid-19 (which Democrats deliberately made worse through lockdowns to make people suffer and blame Trump)? Democrats overplayed the race card. By calling everything racist, they allowed Antifa and Black Lives Matter to riot and destroy people and property for months, and the average American finally said enough is enough. Trump started a trend away from the Democratic Party – especially among Black people – and away from trust in the MSM. It’s just amazing to see something like this happen in our lifetime, considering how much control the left has over education, media, Big Tech, entertainment, and much of the legal system.
