West Virginia has always been considered a top Republican favorite in 2024, and since Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announced overdue last year that he wouldn’t seek re-election, it’s even more likely that a Republican will replace him. Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney of the state’s 2nd Congressional District are currently vying for the Republican nomination. While Justice may be the front-runner, internal memos shared exclusively with Townhall show Mooney’s chances will improve as West Virginia voters learn more about him and Justice.
Last month, Public Opinion Strategies conducted a survey of 500 likely GOP voters in West Virginia, including a note noting that he has hope and room for improvement.
“Even though Jim Justice currently leads the race, Alex Mooney has a clear path to victory. GOP primary voters like Justice, but they don’t love him – he’s a typical Republican governor in a Republican state. Once we are able to introduce Alex to voters and they learn about Justice’s troubled history, the race becomes polarized and Alex takes the lead,” the memo reads. “While Justice has earned Trump’s endorsement, Mooney’s 100 percent endorsement of President Trump gives him a 45-37 percent advantage in this matchup.”
The memo put Justice’s lead on Mooney at 56-22 percent. AND WMOV Radio Poll as of last November, Justice leads with 56 percent to Mooney’s 20 percent.
The memo noted that voters are less likely to support the justice system when they hear about “disturbing aspects of the justice system’s history,” such as his “support for special rights for transgender people,” but also “on the side [President Joe] Biden on his huge, multi-billion dollars of money spending package“And”Justice doesn’t pay its bills and doesn’t pay its employees“
Another note specifically touched on the financial problems of the justice system, which in some cases involved legal disputes. In addition to the Wall Street Journal story from last week cited above, there is also a story from Axios from May 31, 2023, which states: “The Justice Department is suing West Virginia’s governor’s coal empire over unpaid federal fines“. On May 28, 2023, the West Virginia Metro News reported that “The order calls for garnishment of the governor’s wages, and the Auditor’s Office says it will comply with it the same way it would for anyone else“
“It’s sad when desperate people do desperate things. Polls show Never Trump did not endorse Alex Mooney, losing nearly 40 points to Gov. Jim Justice. West Virginians know Jim Justice and his unprecedented history of conservative accomplishments that helped him win reelection through the House of Representatives with the highest vote share of any incumbent Republican gubernatorial candidate in state history Alex Mooney is the underdog in West Virginia; maybe he might try it next time in Maryland,” Roman Stauffer, Jim Justice’s U.S. Senate campaign manager, told Townhall. Governor’s files.
But the memo doesn’t focus solely on Justice. The poll also presented a positive image of Mooney to voters as his chances improved from that point on:
- 71 percent are more likely to vote for Mooney after learning of his “support for completing President Trump’s border wall.”
- 70 percent are more likely to vote for Mooney after learning of his support for “Stop the Democrats from Stealing the Election.”
- 68 percent are more likely to vote for Mooney after learning of his “A” rating from the NRA.
The race tightens as voters are told positive things about Mooney’s record, and Justice’s lead drops to 48 percent to Mooney’s 40 percent.
And even though former and potentially future President Donald Trump supported justice, voters give Mooney high marks when they learn he voted with Trump 100% of the time.
Respondents were read a statement about how some/others “believed that Alex Mooney was one of Donald Trump’s strongest supporters and defenders in Congress and was praised by Trump for doing the quote “outstanding job in Congress,” which was selected by 45%, while 37 percent chose the statement that some/other “people say Jim Justice has the full support of Donald Trump and can be counted on to be a forceful supporter of Trump’s agenda.”
“Alex Mooney has a clear path to victory. Alex starts out as relatively well-known and well-liked. With only positive messages boosting Alex’s image, Alex not only adds 18 points to his voting position, but Justice loses 12 points,” the voting memo further states. “The fact that Justice is losing support just because of the positives proves how soft Justice’s image and support is in the state. On positives alone, the race is tight. Alex takes the lead as soon as we highlight disturbing aspects of Justice’s story.”
The poll was conducted Jan. 15-17 among 500 likely GOP voters in West Virginia and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percent.
This second note is heading in a decidedly positive direction. “Our new data shows that when voters learn about Jim Justice’s terrible record, we win 46%-42%. The undecideds are also likely to get in our way, and as long as we have the resources to educate GOP primary voters about the real liberal Jim Justice, we would expect a roughly six-point victory,” it begins.
While Justice may be ahead in the polls, the memo highlights Mooney’s fundraising strengths, including the fact that Mooney raised about $1.8 million in the fourth quarter.
Mooney also gained the support of numerous organizations and Republicans at the state and federal levels, including the Club for Growth, Senate Conservatives Fund, Citizens United, American Conservative Union and Gun Owners of America.
Meaning. Ted Cruz of Texas, Mike Lee of Utah, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio also endorsed Mooney, in addition to the one-third of West Virginia’s Republican House of Delegates members.
The second memo pays special attention to the Club for Growth, stating that the group has “already spent $2 million of the $10 million it pledged to help elect Congressman Mooney to the U.S. Senate.”
Mooney has overcome challenging odds before, including when he was redistricting against an incumbent and Mooney faced former Republican David McKinley in the primary.
“In 2022, the WV-02 Republican Congressional primary was one of the most watched races in the country, with incumbents Alex Mooney and David McKinley pinned together after redistricting. “Preliminary polls showed McKinley winning by double digits,” the memo noted. McKinley also previously represented 65 percent of the district. Ultimately, Mooney won almost 19 points in the 2022 Republican primary.
This second note references the McKinley-Justice connection and highlights how Mooney has, in some sense, beaten Justice before. “Mooney has already defeated Jim Justice once, defeating his chosen candidate David McKinley by a wide margin in his last congressional race, which includes half the state,” it noted.
Regardless of whether Justice or Mooney wins the nomination, he will almost certainly become the next senator from West Virginia. November’s Senate race is currently under consideration by forecasters as a “solid Republican” or “safe Republican.”
