Last week, the Republican National Committee, under the able leadership of its chairman, Reince Priebus of Wisconsin, enacted reforms to the presidential nominating process that greatly simplify and shorten the primary elections, coupled with two other reforms coming: an early convention in June or in early July and a consistent, goal-oriented debate system and schedule will significantly escalate the eventual GOP candidate’s chances of victory in November.
The possible GOP* field is vast and needs information now to plan campaigns. Geraghty the Indisensable has more commentsAND Zeke Miller has additional detailsbut the fresh calendar will probably be:
Iowa Caucuses on Monday, February 1, 2016;
New Hampshire Primary Elections, Tuesday, February 9, 2016;
South Carolina Primary Elections, Tuesday, February 16, 2016;
and clubs in Nevada on Tuesday, February 23.
Expect a fresh “Super Tuesday” on Tuesday, March 1, as potential in-state players rush to grab all the money and attention left over from South Carolina, but note the two-week difference between voting in South Carolina and the expected fresh Super Tuesday. Suddenly, the Palmetto State has a substantial advantage because the winner of the 2016 fight will have two weeks of momentum to get going ahead of a day that is expected to be crowded with early primaries, all required by the RNC to proportionately divide delegates.
Large states that want winner-take-all drama and knockout potential (and dollars) should choose Tuesday, March 15, the earliest possible date for such a contest, and if Ohio wants an advantage (and perhaps an advantage in the hunt for convention), the GOP-dominated Legislature should move the primary election to that date. I doubt Governor Kasich would object.
Whatever happens, madness is out of the system, so welcome Reince. If he can pull a schedule of eight to 10 debates out of a hat – say, one the week after New Hampshire, one the week after South Carolina, and the remaining six between September 2015 and January 2016 – days of blackout from Friday, December 18 through the end of the year – journalists who spent Christmas 2011 in Iowa and New Hampshire can wear it after the final convention location in the convention hall. (Cities wishing to bid early for the 2016 GOP convention must do so by the end of next month by submitting a site selection recommendation from this group and decision in August this year.) On a rational calendar, the allure of early debates simply won’t work for most would-be presidents, but I don’t think I’ll have much trouble booking a seat *when their media teams discover that 94.5 Conservative Talk covers the North Side of South Carolina in the glow of 100,000 wonders, while other affiliates such as WJXY-FM 93.9/93.7 in Myrtle Beach cover the coast.
South Carolina is the real winner in all this, but there is no substantial loser, and that’s why diplomacy under Priebus’s leadership is paying off substantial time. It’s a level playing field. It is also a rational approach and candidates who aspire to lead the party, and ultimately the nation, must nod in agreement that it makes sense.
Now, if the selection committee had used common sense and chosen Cleveland, with its fresh convention hall, excellent mass transit from outlying areas and the expected trifecta: the 2015 World Series, the 2016 Super Bowl and the 2016 NBA Finals, the three major professional franchises would provide the tailwind for the convention this summer. (Columbus, of course, will deny that City Nation will triumph in early 2016, and that’s most likely correct, but he’s still 1 in 3 in momentum-generating events. And Columbus doesn’t have a attractive lake or a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.)
A very good week indeed for the GOP. Had such a meeting been held in January 2010, President Romney may well have tightened sanctions on Iran and markets would have been more stable under the budget agreement negotiated by Vice President Ryan.
*GOP field (potential candidates who have declared, suggested or been tipped as candidates, or who enjoy considerable recognition from staunch supporters outside the family and state): Amb. John Bolton, Governor Jeb Bush, Governor Chris Christie, Senator Ted Cruz, Governor Mike Huckabee, Governor Bobby Jindal, Governor John Kasich, Republican Peter King, Senator Marco Rubio, Governor Mike Pence, Senator Rand Paul, Governor Sarah Palin, Governor Rick Perry , Republican Paul Ryan, Governor Rick Snyder, Senator John Thune, Governor Scott Walker.
