WASHINGTON – Despite a badly damaged Republican brand that won’t be a majority any time soon, independent campaign analysts say the GOP could make gains in the governorship and House of Representatives in the 2009-2010 election cycle.
The reasons have more to do with political geography than with any predictions about what the economic climate will look like this year and next, when the off-year and midterm elections will depend on whether the nation’s economy responds to President Obama’s stimulus programs.
Republicans will simply have more options than Democrats next time in congressional and gubernatorial races.
Little attention is paid to gubernatorial battlegrounds right now, but 38 states will hold gubernatorial elections over the next two years. More Democratic (21) than Republican (17) seats will be at stake.
More importantly, this cycle there will be more vulnerable Democratic governors in largely Republican states than vulnerable Republicans in Democratic states.
“It is far too early to deteriorate the overall outlook, but Republicans could make significant gains in the governorship in 2010,” wrote election analyst Nathan L. Gonzales at Rothenberg Political Report, which tracks the election.
“Democrats now have to defend in many GOP-leaning states (like Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Tennessee) that they held for six years but are opening up because of term limits,” he says.
On the other hand, Republicans’ chances of retaining statehouses currently appear slim in heavily Democratic California and smaller Democratic states like Hawaii and Rhode Island.
According to Rothenberg’s preliminary calculations, three Democrat-controlled governorships were leaning toward a GOP takeover (Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming), and four other open Democratic seats (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Virginia) were rated as lost.
On the Republican side, there were only five candidates up for grabs, including two randoms: South Dakota (open) and Nevada, where Gov. Jim Gibbons “looks like he’s going to lose either the primary or the general election,” Gonzales said.
For example, in GOP-overwhelmed Kansas, the likely Republican candidate will be Sen. Sam Brownback, who is expected to become that country’s next governor.
But Democrats are in trouble elsewhere, too, in the year’s only two gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey.
Democrats had a powerful run in Virginia, winning back-to-back statehouse races for both Senate and two House elections, and putting the state in Obama’s voting column. However, the GOP’s prospects for winning the governor’s seat this year are good.
Virginia Democrats face a tight three-way primary fight, with former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell confident of winning the GOP nomination and plenty of campaign money.
In New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine is becoming increasingly unpopular, according to a recent Fairleigh Dickinson poll, with 38% favorable and 48% unfavorable. Republicans are uniting their party behind former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie.
Corzine, who made millions on Wall Street as head of Goldman Sachs and spent $43 million in his last race, will put everything necessary into his re-election campaign. Veteran election trackers say anyone with that much cash shouldn’t be underestimated. This time, however, Democrats fear that even with his enormous wealth, he could be brought down by the deepening recession that has hit the state demanding.
Meanwhile, the House remains firmly in the Democrats’ grip. The GOP has 178 seats and would need to win an insurmountable 40 more to gain a majority.
But Republicans’ prospects appear brighter in some districts they lost last year due to President Bush’s unpopularity, high Democratic energy levels fueled by the Obama campaign and a severe recession.
Democrats actually have better fundraising opportunities this time around because the party in power is getting more money from special interests seeking influence on Capitol Hill.
But House Democrats also face drawbacks. “They also now control many conservative, Republican-leaning districts, leaving incumbents vulnerable to a likely mid-year decline in turnout,” said Stuart Rothenberg, who tracked the election in his 2010 House forecasts.
“While it is far too early to put numbers on net change this cycle, Republicans simply have more room to improve the situation than Democrats,” he said.
It goes without saying that next year’s Senate will be almost a lost cause for Republicans. There are currently four GOP seats up for election: Sen. Jim Bunning in Kentucky, which narrowly squeaked by in his last election, and three open seats in Florida, Missouri and Ohio, where Democrats have shown growing strength.
Several other GOP officials face tough races in North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and especially Louisiana, where Sen. David Vitter is in trouble for his ties to a prostitution ring.
Overall, it’s not a pretty picture for Republicans, but gains among state governors and the House next year would show there’s still life in the GOP and that last year’s obituaries were a bit premature.
