In my various analyzes of the 2020 Senate landscape, I’ve come to the conclusion that of all the significant races – and there are probably 15 of them on the map – control of the upper chamber may depend on the results in two states: North Carolina and Iowa. The battle in the Tar Heel State appears to slightly favor Democrats, with Joe Biden having the advantage fraction of a point in the polling average, with Sen. Thom Tillis’ Democratic challenger leading by a slim but healthier margin. It is worth noting that then-candidate Donald Trump outperformed the North Carolina polling average by almost three points in 2016, and a Republican senator running for re-election that year outperformed an even greater margin. Moreover, when Tillis defeated an incumbent Democrat six years ago, seven out of eight recent studies he pointed to Democrats taking that seat. Tillis outperformed the poll by about three percentage points and won. If this recent trend of the GOP being stronger statewide than polls predict, both Trump and Tillis could win.
There is reason to believe that this cycle will be different than previous cycles for a variety of reasons, which is why I believe Republicans have reason to be concerned about North Carolina. However, the Party State has demonstrated high technical competence when it comes to winning elections with the X’s and O’s, which could make a significant difference in a tight race. Tar Heel Republicans were gain Democrats in reporting early ballots. One note about digging too deeply into partisan vote breakdowns for early/mail-in/absentee voting: reading tea leaves based on this data is always risky, and I would argue that’s especially true in this very unusual year and voting environment. Moreover, focusing on the R and D differences risks ignoring the key role of independents, a group that supported Trump four years ago but now he headed towards According to polls, Biden will win nationwide this year. If North Carolina does well against Republicans on election night, it could be a relatively good sign that the Biden wave isn’t building. But if Trump and Tillis lose, especially in relatively early calls, it could spell a long and painful night for the GOP.
Some intelligent analysts in Iowa recently tipped Sen. Joni Ernst wins the race to Team Blue, but the Republican incumbent appears to be powerful. She has led in four of the last five polls, including: closely watched examination this is considered the gold standard in the Hawkeye State:
????IOWA POLL: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst overtook Democrat Theresa Greenfield.
Ernst: 46%
Green field: 42%MOE +/- 3.4%
https://t.co/zg9VaAjQJe By @DMRegister
— Brianne Pfannenstiel (@brianneDMR) October 31, 2020
Moreover, in the same poll, Trump’s lead is even wider: :
Trump leads Selzer’s latest poll in Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.
That’s the same margin as their last poll four years ago, which heralded Trump’s assault on the Midwest.https://t.co/bIOVhFRaQh— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 31, 2020
Cohn notes that the final result in 2016 DMR the poll gave Trump a seven-point lead. He led the state by more than nine points. The same pollster incorrectly misannounced his 2018 gubernatorial pick in Iowa, predicting a two-point victory for Democratic challenger Gov. Kim Reynolds. Reynolds won by three points. In Ernst’s first race (2014), DMR predicted a seven-point victory for her. She won a difference of eight and a half points. If… and here it is again definitely ‘If’ – if the Republican Party’s pattern of overperformance continues, Trump and Ernst should be in pretty good shape on Tuesday. This is the final message of Ernst’s campaign:
I would also like to note that Iowa and Ohio they voted unanimously in the last four presidential elections. If Iowa turns red this year, especially by quite a gigantic margin, it’s a pretty safe and sound bet that Ohio will fall the same way (Biden has fractional lead in Buckeyeland). If any of these states go bankrupt, it will be Biden’s game. I’ll leave you with this Florida is Florida: :
Florida pic.twitter.com/d9ALYBMEhh
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 1, 2020
How it started: https://t.co/96JRUGBLZv
How’s it going: https://t.co/FAjkxOUOFR pic.twitter.com/bwOKwswbsc
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACuputo) November 1, 2020
You may wonder whether this “Companion“The clip will support stop the bleeding that Miami Democrats fear.
