In politics, as in life, the past is prologue. Once again, Bush is the first candidate to announce that he may run for president, this time in 2016. Jeb Bush’s announcement about the need to seek the most meaningful job in the world, published in the most disappointing way – a Facebook post – sent the nation into a frenzy: The 2016 presidential race has officially begun.
Coming on the heels of the historic Republican election, the presidential primary is sure to be a hotly contested contest. Republicans across the country, from very different states, with very different styles and achievements, will claim that they are best qualified and best suited to oppose Hillary.
What does the field look like at the beginning of 2015? Jeb actually verses the rest.
Jeb Bush has a respectable reputation, fluency in Spanish, an impressive resume of two-year terms as governor of an essential swing state (Florida), and will soon have a financial advantage over his rivals because he will be raising funds without the constraints of management schedules or fundraising limits imposed on incumbents. under our campaign finance laws.
What about the other 2016 candidates? In Wisconsin, Gov. Scott Walker won another hard-fought election and cemented his legacy as a reformer and buster of public employee unions. However, his national profile is somewhat confined, and in 2012 the country rejected another conservative Wisconsinite, Paul Ryan.
In Ohio, Gov. John Kasich sought re-election in a crucial swing state but agreed to expand Obamacare under Medicaid and it does not have a national profile. In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal managed to turn around a failed state, but his state doesn’t count in the Electoral College, and his only experience on the national stage, rejecting the State of the Union, was (he hopes) forgettable.
In New Jersey, Chris Christie proved to be an extremely effective governor, and his tenure as head of the Republican Governors Association saw the historic election of 31 Republican governors. But New Jersey isn’t a major Republican state, Christie’s temperament doesn’t seem well suited to a presidential campaign, and his refusal to criticize the president at times could make many Republicans question his loyalty to the party.
Finally, outgoing Texas Gov. Rick Perry has a solid political record and a proven fundraising record, but his disappointing efforts in 2012 cast a shadow over the future and raise solemn questions about his ability to turn his record into a marketable commodity and sell it successfully.
What about senators vying for promotion? Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have similar flaws: none of them have governing power, no executive experience, and will be in Mitch McConnell’s shadow for the next two years. President Obama reminded the nation that senators do not make good presidents.
Rand Paul will forever be attached to his father’s unhealthy ideas, and his own foreign policy tendencies seem frivolous at a time when ISIS is beheading Americans with impunity. Marco Rubio faltered in his early embrace of comprehensive immigration reform, and in 2016, Rubio will have to choose between running for president or seeking re-election.
Finally, Ted Cruz is not qualified to be president. His history of ineffective “me-first” procedural errors as a senator, which enabled the government shutdown in 2013 and resulted in the confirmation of dozens of liberal judges nominated by Obama in 2014, raises solemn questions about his political judgment.
Which brings us back to Jeb Bush. Although Jeb’s name evokes memories of his brother’s tumultuous presidency, the Bushes are 3-4 in the presidential election, and Jeb’s gubernatorial record on expanding charter schools, tax cuts, supporting gun rights and opposing abortion could aid him deflect legitimate criticism of his support for Common Core, a controversial education initiative that encourages further federal control over education policy.
With a national profile, a successful history in leadership positions, and the ability to fundraise and campaign full-time, Jeb is the clear front-runner. What he’s missing at this point, and what may ultimately doom him, is his seeming lack of passion, both for his ideas and for Obama’s record.
The 2014 midterm elections were a referendum on President Obama and his ideology; they both lost a lot. To win over 2016 GOP voters who were 2014 midterm voters, Jeb will need to do two things: (1) passionately present a reform-minded compact government agenda and (2) forcefully refute Obama’s findings and concepts behind this. His last words indicate that he is up to the task.
In 2003, during his second inaugural address as governor, Jeb said: “There would be no greater tribute to our maturity as a society than if we left the buildings around us empty and stood as silent monuments to a time when government played a larger role than it was allowed to.” deserved or could have been adequately fulfilled.” He should go a step further and direct the attention of Herbert Hoover, who rightly observed: “Every time the government is forced to act, we lose something of independence, character, and initiative.”
If Jeb sticks to a plan that aligns with these themes, he could survive the primary fight and win the White House. If he departs from this vision and opts for a vision of better/smarter/more effective government, as Obama promised in 2008, he may not survive the primaries and we will have another Clinton in the White House. God aid us.
