Anyone who lived through the 2020 election probably doesn’t want to hear this, but a panel of experts concluded last Thursday that we likely won’t know who our next president will be on November 5.
The results announced on election night are far from official. They don’t come for weeks.
Rather, they are forecasts made by media organizations when they are confident that observed trends will continue. In a close election, this may take some time.
For four tiring days after the last presidential election, networks were hesitant to predict the outcome because it was so close. As Republicans were more willing to vote in person during the pandemic, votes counted first generally favored then-President Donald Trump, who declared victory repeating false claims of fraud at 2:30 a.m. the day after the election.
Trump continued his lies until January 6, 2020, when the mob he called to Washington, D.C. attacked the Capitol as Congress was certifying Joe Biden’s victory. Regardless of the damage this does to public faith in our democracy, the former president and many of his supporters continue to repeat lies about the outcome of the last election.
We hope to avoid violence this time, but we are unlikely to avoid the initial uncertainty, a panel convened by the National Task Force on Electoral Crises said Thursday.
“We need to make sure the public is aware that we may not have results for one race, multiple races in a given state on election night, or even on Wednesday, or maybe even Thursday,” said Tammy Patrick of the Election Center, a national group representing election officials. “Everything remains to be seen.”
Celina Stewart, executive director of the League of Women Voters, was even more emphatic.
“We probably won’t know the winner of the election on election night,” she said. “We should be skeptical of candidates who declare victory before a clear picture emerges.”
One reason is that some swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not allow early votes to be processed before Election Day. The state of Michigan also did not allow the practice in 2020, but now it is so.
Because so many Democrats voted early in these states, it created the so-called “red mirage” then “blue shift” found that in battleground states, votes for Biden exceeded votes for Trump when votes were initially counted. Trump continues to exploit this phenomenon as part of his election fraud.
Stewart warned the public not to share questionable information until there is a clear winner.
“It’s really important to be patient, stay calm and be careful not to share false information,” she said. “I think we have a greater responsibility in 2024 because of the events that have happened recently.”
There is great concern that uncertainty and disinformation about the election results will deepen political violence it’s already happening. Stewart urged the media to raise awareness that clear predictions about the winner will likely not be known on November 5.
“I think the media has a clearer role to play in this round as they contribute to maintaining calm by not calling for the results to be announced too early, but by waiting for a better picture to be painted,” she said.
Patrick from the Election Center said everyone should just take a deep breath.
“Everyone wants to see results as quickly as possible,” she said.
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