When someone makes a mistake, how does he approach the modern situation and try to explain that it is different, not different than it was then, and that it should be approached differently? In 2016, I and most others were convinced that Donald Trump could not defeat Hillary Clinton. We were wrong. Since then, Trump and his supporters, despite the results of 2018, 2020 and 2022, have insisted that 2024 is now similar to 2016. How can we convince them that this is not the case?
After 2016, I tried to find out why I was wrong. My conclusions were quite uncomplicated. Contrary to the Democratic mythology that Russia stole the election, Hillary Clinton was in fact a uniquely and historically bad candidate who ran a terrible campaign. But there was also something more significant.
Over the past 30 years, Republicans and Democrats have passed free trade agreements, including the North American Free Trade Agreement. On paper and in data, the agreements promised enormous benefits for the United States, from increased trade gains to lower prices for consumers. Yet despite all the promises contained in the agreements, many Americans did not believe they would bring benefits. Instead, they felt abandoned and forgotten. A cheaper washing machine will be of no apply to a factory worker in Ohio who was producing washing machines until the assembly line was moved to Mexico.
Donald Trump tapped into the emotions left behind by many Americans after free trade. The masterminds and the elite prospered. Coastal communities and Ivy League graduates benefited. It seemed like everyone else was subsidizing the elite’s good times. Trump has given voice to this issue and the betrayals that many Republicans have experienced with their leaders making promises that they then repeatedly broke.
As Trump became a force to be reckoned with, many Republican consultants who had helped George Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney turned not only against Trump but also the party he now led. By pushing forward candidates who profess to be pro-life, pro-traditional marriage and values, the GOP presidential candidates’ advisers have shown themselves to be money-hungry, socially liberal and dripping with contempt for the party’s base. Trump exposed this rot and bought loyalty.
While some of us have learned our lesson, many have not. How do you explain to the American political press that they screamed “wolf” so much that so few believed them? Every Republican witnessed how the favorable press turned against McCain. They declared Mitt Romney to be evil, bigoted and racist. Then they did the same to Trump. Even now, some media outlets have started declaring that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is even worse than Trump. How do you explain to a self-confident, arrogant press corps that lacks an ounce of humility and capacity for self-reflection that telling Trump voters since Trump’s victory in 2016 that he was toast only makes it harder to explain this time is different? To mix metaphors, you can only cry wolf before those wolves come home to roost.
At the same time, how do we tell Trump voters that this federal indictment and everything that follows it is really different? Everyone was told the Access Hollywood tape would end Trump. Then there was General Mike Flynn. Then there was Ukraine. He then held the Bible in the air over Lafayette Park. Everything always ends with Trump, except nothing ever ended him. But it’s actually different. If, as it appears, Trump did indeed withhold documents from the grand jury despite a subpoena, that is a federal crime that sends people to prison. But how do you explain otherwise to the cynical Trump loyalists who have his back because he has them?
And finally, how do you explain to a former president that this is not the same as other things? He must now make wise decisions to avoid prison. People have been shouting at Wolf so much that it will be challenging for him to follow sensible advice that sounds similar to the senior advice. But if he’s not careful, his wolves will also come home to roost, and his wolves, more than most, are hungry for him.
To learn more about Erick Erickson and read articles by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
