I’ve mentioned this in passing in previous posts, but it’s worth highlighting separately: Conservatives won a series of critical judicial elections in Ohio and North Carolina last week that will impact future decisions on redistricting disputes before 2024. Some nervous Republicans are already worried that the party’s 2022 success in New York’s House elections could be at least partially wiped out by voters in that very blue state in a higher-turnout presidential year. This is possible given the degree to which the GOP has outperformed in some of these contests. But Republicans could also band together and pick up a number of seats they probably should have won elsewhere this cycle, perhaps easing or offsetting the recovery in New York. The state-level Supreme Court victories in the Buckeye and Tar Heel states also raise the likelihood that Republican-drawn congressional maps will survive judicial review, allowing the GOP to draw district lines that could add a few fresh red-leaning districts to the pot. Here are the significant statewide victories that will impact the federal balance of power:
Rs have won Supreme Court victories in Ohio and North Carolina. This will likely have implications for redistricting next year – the Ds had a good night for the House in every state, but there may be worse maps on the horizon as the Rs build defenses to protect what looks like a fairly slim majority
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) November 9, 2022
Ohio: :
Ohio Republicans won all three state Supreme Court races on Tuesday, extending the GOP’s 36-year streak of having a majority on the court and likely influencing future decisions on redistricting, abortion and other key issues…Republican Justices Sharon Kennedy, Pat Fischer and Pat DeWine defeated Democrats Jennifer Brunner, Terri Jamison and Marilyn Zayas, respectively, according to final unofficial election results… Ohio Supreme Court rulings determine how much Ohioans pay in taxes and bills based on them for the media, whether government records are made public, how business and insurance regulations are applied, and more. Two key issues likely to come before the court in 2023 are the state’s six-week abortion ban and redistricting…During the 2022 elections, for the first time on the ballot, Supreme Court candidates listed their political party affiliation next to their name. This gave voters more clues in contests that are often ignored or where votes are based on vague knowledge of names.
On Tuesday, North Carolinians voted to shift the balance of power on the North Carolina Supreme Court to a conservative majority – a move that could have major consequences for abortion restrictions, how future elections are conducted and which party’s congressional candidates are sent to Washington Voters elected Republicans Trey Allen and Court of Appeals Judge Richard Dietz to the state’s highest court, giving Republicans the seats needed to take a majority on the court, which currently favors Democrats 4-3… The newly installed state Supreme Court justices will serve eight-year terms on the bench. They will be sworn into office in January. In 2024, one seat currently held by a Democrat will be up for grabs. The state Supreme Court has dealt with many controversial issues in the past year, and you can almost certainly expect fresh divisive cases in the coming years. These may include abortion laws…Voting lines are determined by the party that controls the state legislature. If the minority party or others find the proposed boundaries wrong, they often challenge them in court. The state’s most recent ballot lines were challenged and ultimately went to the Supreme Court. If challenges to the state Supreme Court over fresh districts drawn by the Republican-controlled state Legislature, a more deferential group of judges could allow disproportionate Republican share in the House…In addition to GOP control of North Carolina courts, Republicans won all four appellate court races.
“Before the elections, Democrats maintained a 4:3 advantage on the floor, but after these losses, Republicans maintain a 5-2 advantage…the court will likely hear challenges to the next round of electoral maps ahead of the 2024 races. Republican victories guarantee this party a majority in the court until 2028,” he adds Smoky Mountain News. While the Republican Party had a frustrating evening in many respects, it had strong performances in many states, including an impressive run for Democrats in Florida and actions in places like Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina: :
In North Carolina, Republicans swept every statewide race and nearly won a legislative majority. The once staunch Democratic East saw 7 #ncleg flip districts, including Biden+10 HD32.@decunningham2 explains all state election results.https://t.co/lkcptbBYSR pic.twitter.com/pHEsDWDyvA
— Daily Elections (@Elections_Daily) November 14, 2022
I’ll leave you with another set critical but underrated results from last week:
Positive midterm effects: Local school board elections dominated by anti-racial theory candidates.
Local policy matters. Get organized. pic.twitter.com/PLCuGkyqt0
— Christopher F. Rufo (@realchrisrufo) November 10, 2022
Conservatives dominated the local school board elections last night. In Minnesota, conservative activists won 49 seats in 15 of 19 elected districts.
Local elections matter. Get organized. pic.twitter.com/qOcpbKmgRZ
— Christopher F. Rufo (@realchrisrufo) November 10, 2022