Donald Trump and his online influencers and sycophants love to post about national polls that show the former president leading Joe Biden in a potential 2024 matchup. They see it as proof that their guy can win and a way to fight back electoral argument which I and others routinely do when comparing Trump to DeSantis and even other candidates. But is there any truth to this? Can he actually pull it off?
Of course not, for many reasons.
First, even if such distant results from a national poll could mean anything at all, they would sedate problems in crosstabs of all polls that show Trump leading Biden. For example, some show Biden winning just over 50% of the Black vote, while Trump led women in the vote. Some recent ones even show Trump having around 20% of the Black vote. Please. None of this is realistic, and it all points to either sedate sampling problems or an attempt to perform legitimate psychological surgery to make it look like Trump has a chance. He does not.
Even more essential, however, is the folly of relying on any national poll to determine who will win an election that will be decided by the Electoral College rather than the popular vote. In other words, even IF Trump were actually more popular nationally than Biden (he is not – in fact, he is the only prominent politician who has consistently Less popular than Biden), his path to victory still leads through Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin (replacing New Hampshire AND Nevada if Wisconsin loses). And sorry if you think Michigan or Pennsylvania will happen for Trump or any other Republican, I have a signed, press conference-worn Fetterman hoodie for sale.
Even if Trump wins everything he should win, even if he wins North Carolina, Ohio and Florida, if he loses even ONE of these key swing states, he loses the election. End of story. He will fail to beat the tally in Alabama and South Carolina, just as Democrats failed to beat the tally in California and New York. AND To have and will likely make a compelling case for nationwide popular suffrage in the future, but that is not the system we currently have. Now the Republican must thread a narrow needle to secure a presidential victory, with almost zero room for error.
Arizona has two Democratic senators and a Democratic governor, and in 2020 it fell into disrepair. I know, I know… “lots of cheating”. I get it, but Trump has shown zero ability to win beyond the margin of fraud in close states, something Republicans have had to do for years. Will a state whose last Senate Republicans were Jeff Flake and John McCain suddenly wake up and realize Trump is their man? Hurry up. Oh, and John McCain’s widow, a venerable figure in Arizona politics, still hates Trump. So there it is.
Georgia also has two Democratic senators, a Republican governor with whom Trump has openly clashed on more than one issue and has fallen into disrepair in 2020. It was also Trump who almost single-handedly cost the Republicans the Senate, costing his party three (!!) different elections. losses, not to mention the fact that Trump may, fair or not, face a state prison sentence. No, Georgia will not “wake up” and pull the lever for Donald Trump. Not in this universe or any other.
Wisconsin has a Democratic governor who was re-elected in a landslide, impeached Trump in 2020 and repelled Republicans in key judicial elections this year. The former president may have a chance there, but remember that the GOP must win beyond the limits of fraud, which proved too challenging in 2020 and is even more so now given that he has done nothing to grow his voter base.
Check out these electoral maps With Race to WH, a site that uses all the latest state-to-state polls to predict the current state of the race. This photo will tell you everything you need to know. See those states I just talked about? They are ALL blue because in NONE of them is Trump leading Biden.
Look at it again. This is the electoral future we are looking at with Donald Trump as our candidate. So no, you should pay absolutely no attention to so-called “national polls” that say Trump is competitive in the 2024 general election. They mean nothing. At best, these are forthright mistakes by interviewers who have an impossible job to do at this early stage. At worst, they are part of a massive psychological operation by both the establishment media and Team Trump to elect him as the GOP nominee.
