After the pomp, circumstance and sometimes over-the-top language of last Tuesday’s love fest, it’s challenging to imagine that Democrats will be particularly vulnerable in the 2010 congressional or state governor races.
From 1934 to 2006, with the exception of 1998 (during Clinton’s impeachment) and 2002 (after the September 11 terrorist attacks), the president’s party lost an average of about 26 congressional seats in midterm elections.
In 2010, 34 seats in the US Senate and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for grabs.
However, with Senate vacancies created by Vice President Joe Biden (Delaware), Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (New York), and Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar (Colorado), who forced a special election in 2010, 36 states face contests for Senate – including New York, with two.
Given that Illinois requires a special election for the remainder of President Obama’s aged term, that means 38 Senate contests nationwide.
If health or age results in two vacancies in Massachusetts and West Virginia, that would mean 40 Senate contests in 38 states, all in one election cycle.
“I sincerely doubt that Democrats will lose that many in 2010,” says Lara Brown, a political scientist at Villanova University.
He expects a net loss of five to 10 seats in the House.
“The places to watch are going to be in those conservative Democrat- or Republican-leaning districts that Democrats picked up in 2006 and 2008,” Brown says.
In the Senate, the electoral field seems more favorable to Republicans than in 2008. But with the already announced retirements of four House Republicans, not everything will be silky sailing.
Brown says retaining outgoing Sen. Mel Martinez’s Florida seat will be especially arduous for the GOP, unless former Gov. Jeb Bush withdraws and decides not to run. However, if Republican Connie Mack runs, she will pose a sedate challenge to Democrats.
Republicans also have pension headaches over the Senate seats of George Voinovich of Ohio and Kit Bond of Missouri. Both will be highly competitive races that the Republican Party will likely have to spend significant sums on.
Democrats must be favored in Ohio given the strength of the state party and the field of candidates, but U.S. Rep. Ron Portman, a Republican from Cincinnati, should not be discounted as a candidate who could win.
Of note is the Pennsylvania Senate seat held by Arlen Specter. Now that the primary race is off the table, it will be Specter versus one of many potential Democrats.
In Kentucky, Senator Jim Bunning won in 2004 by just 1 percent. The race could be close again, and Republican lawmakers are pushing for Bunning to retire.
“Senate races – more so than House races – have recently changed with the ‘national mood’ during the election,” Brown says. “You saw Republicans winning seats in 2002 and 2004, and Democrats winning seats in 2006 and 2008.”
Even if President Obama manages to work with Congress to pass the legislation, the effects of these policies will likely not be felt by Americans in 2010. Public opinion is more than likely that the government is not doing enough under Democrat control.
Barring another economic or foreign policy crisis, the partisan pendulum will likely swing again and Republicans will do better in 2010 than they did in the last two elections.
“The only two seats that Republicans will have a chance of taking are Senator Salazar’s seat in Colorado and Reid’s seat in Nevada,” Brown says.
Defeating Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would be a moral victory for Republicans, similar to their defeat of former Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004. But that still won’t give the GOP a majority of anywhere near 51 votes.
Brown advises watching the Illinois special election; the dramas taking place there may facilitate Republicans. Will scandal-era Democrat Roland Burris decide to run for a full Senate term? Will Burris be challenged by Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.? What happens if special counsel Patrick Fitzgerald’s investigation expands to include more Democrats beyond Gov. Rod Blagojevich?
That could make Illinois in 2010 for Democrats like Ohio in 2004 for Republicans, when the governor’s scandal brought down almost the entire GOP state.
For Republicans across the country, it’s all about recruiting. Fortunately for them, pensions have so far come early enough for suitable candidates to be found and the money to be raised.
Their fate largely depends on their relationship with President Obama and the Democrat-controlled Congress: hold the Democrats by the toes and Republicans could be called “obstructionists”; be too compliant and they will be accused of playing “yellow coups”.
