The gigantic headline is that Barack Obama still leads Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin, but his lead is shrinking: :
New CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University Polling results from three crucial swing states show that the presidential race is becoming increasingly tight. Poll shows President Obama’s lead in Florida has shrunk to just three points. At the end of July, Obama had a six-point lead there. In Ohio, the president still has a six-point lead over Mitt Romney. In Wisconsin, Romney’s home state, Rep. Paul Ryan, Romney is currently in a virtual tie with the president, with the difference between them being just two points.
The good news for Romney is that CBS/NYT/Q polls show him closing in on the incumbent president in key battleground states. The better news for Republicans is that these polls are based on flawed samples, so the GOP is probably doing better than the numbers show. Ed Morrissey presents it: :
Let’s just get to the point. What do the partisan divisions look like in the samples? Let’s present all three states and compare the D/R/I in this survey to 2008 and 2010:
Florida: 34/28/32; 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/28
Ohio: 34/26/34; 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
Wisconsin: 32/28/33; 2008 39/33/29, 2010 37/36/28
In other words, Florida poll sample is D+6, while the average Florida electorate in 2008 and 2010 (the relevant benchmark for the 2012 electorate) was just D+1.5. This represents a difference of 4.5 percentage points; (Obama leads by three). The Ohio the poll is based on a D+8 sample, while the Buckeye State’s average hybrid electorate in 08/10 was D+3.5. Hence a difference of 4.5 percentage points; (Obama leads by six). The Wisconsin the poll sample is D+4 while the state’s total electorate is D+2.5; (Obama leads by two).
Another telling element from guts: 2008 McCain voters are significantly undersampled in polls conducted in Florida and Ohio. Respondents to a up-to-date Florida poll voted for Obama over McCain by a nine-point margin. The actual election result was Obama by three. Ohio poll respondents supported Obama vs. McCain 13 points. The actual election result was that Obama had a four-and-a-half lead. Overall – and based on other recent polling data – I suspect Romney is tied or slightly ahead in Florida, tied or slightly behind in Wisconsin, and tied or slightly behind in Ohio. Of course he would rather lead everyone. Eleven weeks to sell.
UPDATE – New USA today/Questionnaire shows how concerned Americans are about politics, with record numbers of voters identifying as independents. Romney has a “clear advantage” on the economy and a larger advantage on deficits. Obama leads on several other issues. More voters say Obama is attacking Romney unfairly than the other way around, the GOP has an advantage in enthusiasm, and congressional vote totals are exactly equal. Romney leads men by eight, Obama leads women by the same margin.