It’s the end of April. The unofficial debt limit cutoff is in early June, but he could come a little earlier. I have been arguing for weeks that a negotiated settlement will be necessary and that the White House’s demands are untenable and inconsistent with history – even very recent history involving Joe Biden. I have also said repeatedly that, politically, the Biden administration would be highly motivated to remain passive and do very little unless and until House Republicans demonstrate the ability to get on the same page on a unified demand, probably in the form of a bill that passes through the lower house. Given the Speaker voting turmoil we all witnessed earlier in the year, questions remain about GOP leadership’s ability to attract its own members to high-stakes votes.
Biden’s team has likely concluded that if Republicans ultimately fail to agree on a single debt ceiling plan, leading to internal bickering and dysfunction, it will be very basic to construct a “GOP’s fault” narrative in the face of a looming partial default. But what if House Republicans united and passed a bill that imposed relatively modest spending cuts while also increasing the debt limit – something many observers doubted would be possible? It would demonstrate a desire to govern, strengthen Kevin McCarthy’s hand and complicate Democrats’ ready-made messages about opposition chaos. Republicans could argue that they have taken legislative action to stave off a catastrophic default while the president refuses to engage in earnest, good-faith conversations. The Wall Street Journal sets the stage for a vote that could have consequences later this week:
With both the health of the economy and his position as speaker at stake in the fight over the debt ceiling, McCarthy and his allies have begun the process of agreeing on the 218 votes needed to pass their plan. In a narrowly divided 222-213 House of Representatives, Republicans can afford no more than four defections if, as expected, all Democrats vote no. The shortcomings could seriously undermine Republican efforts to negotiate a debt ceiling compromise with President Biden, who has called for raising the ceiling with no strings attached, and the Democrat-controlled Senate. It could also damage Mr. McCarthy’s credibility at his conference…The Cap, Save, Grow Act would restore government discretionary spending to fiscal year 2022 levels, limit annual spending growth to 1% per decade, and raise the debt ceiling until March 31, 2024, or until the national debt increases by $1.5 trillion. whatever comes first. House GOP leaders are planning a possible vote on Wednesday or Thursday, confident that success would strengthen Republicans’ hand and force Biden to the table. On the other side of the Capitol, Senate Republicans are watching the process closely. They said it was crucial for House Republicans to show they had the votes to pass the debt ceiling bill.
Firebrand Rep. Matt Gaetz may prove to be a surprisingly easier vote when it comes to passing the House plan to raise the debt ceiling… Instead of dragging McCarthy down with arduous partisan infighting over the debt ceiling bill, GOP House lawmakers they want to support their leader, get behind the bill and take the spending fight to President Joe Biden in the White House. … “If you took this plan and the plan that the House Freedom Caucus put forward a few weeks ago and held them up to a lamp, you would see significant compliance,” he added. [Gaetz] he said. What seemed almost politically impossible just a few months ago, with House Republicans almost coming to blows in the chamber, is now proving surprisingly on track as McCarthy pushes, cajoles and cajoles his slim majority to unite around the cap plan debt…
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told me that Democrats will not change their position and will continue to push for a spotless boost to the debt ceiling – without any conditions – even if the House passes the GOP bill.
“Everything remains the same. No edge maneuvering or hostage taking. Clean. spotless. Clean.”
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) April 20, 2023
And the White House is like that is already attacking House Republicans’ ‘ransom demand’ proposal:
President Biden is fighting to clean up toxic pollution, lower energy costs and create clean energy jobs.
MAGA House Republicans are holding our economy hostage with a 320-page offshore labor ransom, filling our cities with smog, and giving our children asthma. pic.twitter.com/0VxB4LNopl
— Karine Jean-Pierre (@PressSec) April 22, 2023
“These MAGA Republicans want our kids to get asthma” is a pretty standard piece of Democratic demagogy these days. They don’t send their best. And even before House Republicans potentially adopt their plan, some Democratic members of Congress are already breaking ranks and calling on the administration to get earnest about negotiations. “We won’t talk” – that’s how it is stopped workingand this refrain may become louder if the GOP gets its job done this week:
As House Republicans begin voting this week on a debt ceiling plan that includes $4.5 trillion in spending cuts, some Democrats in Congress are calling on President Joe Biden to resume negotiations with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, D-Calif., at least on federal budget. “He should negotiate the budget. This is a place to negotiate, and they should start negotiating now,” Senator Amy KlobucharD-Minn., said on CNN… “We’re not holding Americans and their mortgages hostage because right now you just have to be clear that we’re going to avoid default and put this behind us.” … Klobuchar calling on Biden for stringent budget negotiations differs from her colleague, Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. Last week, Manchin praised McCarthy’s bill despite some of its own reservations about the proposed spending cuts. He specifically called on Biden to begin debt ceiling negotiations… As a potential default looms some House Democrats began publicly calling on Biden to resume negotiations with McCarthy. “I don’t think there would be anything wrong with both of them sitting down and talking,” Rep. Greg Landsman, D-Ohio, told Politico, decrying “the idea that we’re even that close to a potential default. Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., also told Politico that the White House “cannot wait.”
I’ll leave you to it this flashback via McCarthywhich further undermines the idea that crafting a legislative compromise coupled with an boost in the debt limit is somehow reckless and unfathomable. As we mentioned earlier, Biden was the central figure in the last major round of such talks. And Democrats had their own demands during the last administration:
“Pelosi, a Democrat from California, said the idea of raising the debt ceiling on its own rather than in conjunction with a budget agreement was “unacceptable to our caucus” and therefore had no chance of passing in the House.
— Kevin McCarthy (@SpeakerMcCarthy) April 23, 2023
The next step in this drama will be for the White House to abandon its “clean bill, no talks” stance. How much they will have to bend may depend on whether House Republicans take that vote. By the way, let’s not forget about national debt context of the fight against the debt ceiling: “Debt limit [in 2011] amounted to USD 14.3 trillion. That number now stands at $31.4 trillion, having more than doubled since 2011. In 1997, the number was just $6 trillion. The escalation is obvious and very problematic.”
