UNITY, Ohio – In the run-up to the 2008 presidential election, a stark billboard hung on the edge of a cornfield in a tiny town in eastern Ohio. White letters on a black background read: “I saw it. God.”
According to an exit poll by the Pew Research Center on Religion and Public Life, candidate Barack Obama and the Democratic Party won 43 percent of voters who regularly attended religious services in 2008, compared with 39 percent who supported John Kerry four years earlier.
This support of “God’s Voice” helped them win in Ohio, as well as in Indiana and Florida.
Democrats have a “vote for God” deficit this year, despite the tough work of Burns Strider, founding partner of Eleison Group and former religious outreach director for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.
“I’m not surprised by the polls this cycle,” Strider said, pointing to a Pew report showing an overall decline in support for Democrats among religious voters. “It is not Armageddon yet, but the task of party activists is to conduct a broad, open and honest dialogue with voters of faith.”
Overall polling shows that the more religious people are, the more likely they are to disapprove of the president’s job performance, says Mark Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University.
Many voters of these values believed that Obama was different from other members of his party, Rozell explained. “In 2008, he seemed to really understand “God-speak.” His evangelical speaking style made him seem genuine to many of the religious voters who supported him.”
Values voters aren’t the only “voice of God” the president is losing: His support among Jewish voters has fallen into hazardous territory.
Jewish voters are dissatisfied with the Obama administration and its foreign policy, “which could translate into dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party in the midterm elections,” said Jeff Brauer, a political science professor at Keystone College.
“A significant issue is the administration’s new opening to the Muslim world while maintaining very icy relations with the government of Israel and directing sharp criticism at it,” he explained.
The Jewish vote in America is tiny – Jews make up less than 3 percent of the population – but their concentration in California, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Massachusetts makes them an essential voting bloc in key House and Senate races. he said.
“Religious groups are often key elements of electoral coalitions – the closer to the election, the more important they can be,” said John Green, a political science professor at the University of Akron who studies religion and American politics.
Obama, the candidate, had style and promised to be different; President Obama is pursuing progressive policies that make many believers uncomfortable.
“Ultimately, voters of so-called values care more about policy than style,” Rozell said.
According to Bert Rockman, a professor of political science at Purdue University, “There is a general shift away from Democrats out of anger at the current state of affairs and pessimism about the direction of the country.”
Rockman isn’t all that surprised to see this trend particularly powerful among those who defected to Obama in 2008.
It will be compelling to see what this means in tight House and Senate races in states like North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana later this year.
Brauer argues that failing support for “God’s voice” will be most pronounced among fiscally conservative Democrats: “Most Blue Dog Democrats rely heavily on faithful votes to keep their seats, especially if they are in predominantly Republican districts.” .
Faithful voters who are socially conservative can just as easily find connection and comfort with a true Republican as with a socially conservative Democrat. If this trend continues, Blue Dog Democrats should steer clear of the midterm elections.
Rozell wouldn’t be surprised if Democratic support among Jewish voters increases by Election Day. “But what is disturbing for the party is that it now has to put a lot of effort into rebuilding support among such a credible voting bloc,” he said.
Think of the dilemma this way: Democrats made major efforts to reach out to Catholics and evangelicals, and in 2006 and 2008 they made some gains on both counts.
Can the party realistically think about expanding its base among evangelicals and Catholics while trying to regain customary support among Jewish voters?
