Things are really bad for Democrats right now. January is the worst on the stock market since 1929. Inflation is the highest since 1982. Although unemployment is low, companies are having difficulty finding employees. Store shelves are empty. Schools are still closed. Masks are everywhere, along with the virus. According to some polls, President Joe Biden is more unpopular than former President Donald Trump ever was.
Republicans lead in most overall polls asking “who should control Congress?” They lead to issues of empathy, economic management, borders and virtually every issue voters care about. In states like Arizona, incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is regularly beaten in polls by anonymous Republicans. Midterm elections historically favor the party against the president. The redistricting also gives Republicans a slight advantage. All should be well for the GOP.
Never underestimate the Republican Party’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. According to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AJC) poll, Biden’s disapproval rate in Georgia is 61%. Brian Kemp, the incumbent Republican governor, is beating Stacey Abrams in multiple public polls. In the AJC poll, Kemp beats Abrams by a statistically significant seven points.
Unfortunately, Trump hates Kemp. Although the constitution prohibits the governor from playing any role in elections, Trump blames Kemp for the allegedly stolen elections in Georgia. As a result, Trump convinced former senator David Perdue to run for Kemp’s seat. This split the Republican Party.
Perdue claimed to unite the GOP in Georgia, but divided the party with constant attacks on Kemp over election integrity. Public polls show Kemp is having trouble uniting the GOP, but he would still win the primary. Unfortunately, this will cost him money that he could otherwise spend in the general election. Meanwhile, Abrams has a clear path to the Democratic nomination. All public polls show Perdue at best statistically comparable to Abrams, even though Kemp clearly beats her. But Trump is going to step in for revenge.
In Arizona, when Kelly loses to a typical Republican, all the real Republicans in the race struggle. Arizona’s attorney general is struggling to raise funds. Others have credibility issues. Gov. Doug Ducey may enter the race, but Trump is already complaining about Ducey, vowing to hurt him. Ducey may be the best candidate to take the Arizona Senate seat and hand control of the Senate to the GOP.
In Ohio, John Mandel and JD Vance are heavily involved in performing for Trump supporters. The race has become crowded, and the noise of the GOP primary threatens to lure independent voters to Democrats. Ohio is a Republican seat they need to take. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s pick Sean Parnell dropped out of the race and TV’s Dr. Mehmet Oz entered the race as a Republican. Last week, in a clip he shot at the fair, Dr. Oz stated that he had discovered that Pennsylvanians were patriots. It’s a gloomy commentary on a candidate who has only recently learned about the people he hoped to represent.
Republicans have a chance to sweep the nation. Barring Biden’s unpopularity and redistricting, the House of Representatives should be a sure thing. But the GOP needs the Senate, and it also needs to hold and win the governor’s mansions. This could be a wave year where even less than stellar candidates can win. But the former president’s interference could put candidates at risk of being radioactive in the general election. A poll in Georgia shows that general election voters are 49% less likely to vote for a candidate supported by Trump. This could aid Democrats.
The GOP has one brilliant spot. Adam Laxalt in Nevada blocked Republican support across the board. He has the support of both the Trump wing and the non-Trump wing of the party. Catherine Cortez Masto may prove to be the weakest Democrat in the Senate compared to Laxalt, who is popular statewide. The GOP has multiple paths to winning the Senate with Democrats on defense. But the GOP has an annoying habit of sabotaging itself.
