Decision Desk HQ — Townhall’s official election results partner — has released its latest forecast for the midterm elections, which are less than a week away. It reflects the dynamics of the Republican candidates that Townhall has been reporting on in the final weeks of the 2022 election cycle.
Specifically, for the first time in 2022, DDHQ is forecasting that Republicans will win a majority in the U.S. Senate on November 8. The margin is slim (for now) — 51-49 — but it would be enough to return Chuck Schumer and his fellow Democrats to the minority in the upper house of Congress.
🚨 Republicans are the favorites to control the U.S. Senate for the first time since our 2022 Election Forecast was released. Our model currently projects Republicans have a 50.4% chance of control, with our average seat prediction being 51 (R) and 49 (D).https://t.co/UHhMBpQqvL
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 28, 2022
According to Decision Desk modelU.S. Senate elections in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are the only uncertain elections, while North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin are “weak” or “likely” Republican elections. Their model ran more than 14 million simulations to find possible election night outcomes, and currently has a 50.4% chance that Republicans will emerge from the midterm elections with control of the Senate.
Underscoring the dynamics of the rising red wave, the DDHQ model has shifted toward Republican control by 3.9 points over the past day, 6.3 percent over the past week and 14.2 percent over the past month.
One of the biggest signs of GOP momentum is the Senate race in Pennsylvania, where Dr. Mehmet Oz has had a tailwind in recent weeks, giving him a three-point lead in the polls over Democrat Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. In that contest, the DDHQ model gives Oz a 53.1 percent chance of winning.
Mehmet Oz (R) is the favorite to win the first-time U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania. Oz now has a 53.1% chance of winning, but the race remains uncertain. https://t.co/zGQ6WQkiFL
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 28, 2022
Depending on how much GOP momentum continues into Election Day and how the final 10 days of the midterm cycle play out, there is a chance Republicans could facilitate boost DDHQ’s current projection of a 51-49 GOP majority.
Their model classifies the U.S. Senate races in Arizona and New Hampshire as simply “Lean Dem,” but recent polls in Arizona have shown incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly tied with GOP challenger Blake Masters, and Kari Lake’s 11-point lead in the governor’s race could boost Masters even further in the state’s wave of red votes she herself will trigger.
In New Hampshire, incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan led by just 3.4 points in the race against Republican challenger Don Bolduc.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the DDHQ congressional race model Republicans are currently estimated to have a 76.7 percent chance of taking control of the House of Representatives from Speaker Pelosi, giving the GOP a 230-205 majority.
