Tell me, has anyone mentioned that this race is looking pretty close lately? Oh, it’s true – everyone does. CNN the last national survey before Judgment Day shows the race was tied 49, a D+11 partisan sample. This assumes Democrats improve their extraordinary turnout in 2008 by four percentage points. There’s a word for it. This is “ridiculous.” CNN’s previous national poll gave Obama a three-point lead, suggesting the GOP candidate is gaining ground. In delicate of the stunning sample, how is the race even close, let alone tied?
(1) Independent voters side with Romney by 22 points59/37.
(2) Romney leads by nine on the economy, which is the most essential issue for voters, followed closely by the deficit, which is another of Romney’s strengths.
(3) Romney is equal to Obama in favorability and leadership qualities.
So there it is. If you’re curious, the poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, so any potential Sandy “overshoot” for Obama should be reflected in the numbers. Perhaps even more astonishing is the GOP’s one-point lead on the overall congressional ballot (which may facilitate explain the story Yes). Did I mention that this survey uses a D+11 sample? Meanwhile, USA today joins the choir that was too close to being called last pre-election poll swing states. 48, all:
Voters in the nation’s key battlegrounds showed the same enthusiasm and commitment in the 2012 presidential election as they did four years ago in the historic contest, and they are finally forming their opinions about President Obama and Mitt Romney. It’s a draw: 48%-48% … The poll was conducted in more than a dozen battlegrounds most likely to determine the Electoral College outcome: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. In a sign of their importance, one or both of the presidential candidates held events during the final days of the campaign in nine of these 12 states – and neither of them disappointed anywhere else… Overall, Republicans still have an enthusiasm advantage, although that has narrowed in the last year. In October 2011, one-third of Republican voters were extremely enthusiastic about the presidential election, more than twice the number of Democrats who felt this way. Now, 51% of Republicans and 44% of Democrats say they are excited about it.
According to the poll, Romney is three times ahead on the economy and ten on deficits; Obama’s advantages are countless and lie elsewhere. Now that we’re on the “tell me something I didn’t already know” express, who wants another article highlighting how decisive tomorrow’s turnout will be? Here’s one which focuses on Pennsylvania:
To reverse the 24-year trend of Democratic presidential victories in Pennsylvania, Romney needs to match or exceed Bush in four suburban Philadelphia counties, all of which Bush lost except Chester County in 2004. Romney also needs high turnout in the western part of the statewhere the majority of the voting demographic is conservative, blue-collar and white voters. This is largely how Republican Pat Toomey narrowly defeated Democrat Joe Sestak in the 2010 U.S. Senate race. Perhaps to Romney’s advantage, one of Pennsylvania’s few hotly contested races was in the West. The only truly competitive House race in the state is the 12th District near Pittsburgh. Western Pennsylvania is also feeling some effects from the overwhelming attention the Romney and Obama campaigns have paid to Ohio. Lara Brown, a political science professor at (*49*) University, said there is a chance Romney will win Pennsylvania by 1 or 2 points. provided certain geographic scenarios go his way.
This analysis tracks using Jay Costa’s Romney action plan to victory in the Keystone State, which would almost guarantee victory if Romney managed to pull off an upset:
And then it all comes down to how well Obama’s team organized Philadelphia County. If he can enhance turnout there like he did in 2008 with 470,000 votes, the state will go his wayalthough narrowly. If his electoral machine falls a bit tiny – due to diminished citizen enthusiasm, Obama’s team’s lack of preparation, or simply the inevitable drift of the county’s marginal GOP voters to the GOP banner – Obama will be in trouble. After all, John Kerry broke all records in Philadelphia County in 2004 with about 410,000 votes, and then Obama broke them with 480,000, even though the county’s population was stagnant. If Obama “just” makes the county as organized as Kerry, then in this scenario Romney will win the Keystone State, albeit by a tiny margin.
The Republican campaigned in Bucks County last night to great turnout 30,000 followers to a farm near Philadelphia:
If Romney wins tomorrow night, these gigantic crowds will be seen as harbingers of a wave of support that has overwhelmed Democrats’ carefully crafted plans. If he doesn’t, they will show that even the overwhelming enthusiasm of the Republican Party was not enough to defeat the incumbent’s legendary turnout machine. Tick ​​tock.
UPDATE – Last night I came across a clip of Romney entering Pennsylvania. Here are the excited people: