by Edward Ring
It has become a truism among right-wing voters in America that as the percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the population declines, the percentage of registered Democrats increases. This truism is of course shared by the progressive left in America. This may lead one to conclude that if Democrats wanted to turn America into a one-party state, they would do everything in their power to escalate the percentage of voters who are not “non-Hispanic whites.”
There is evidence to support this truth. For example, in 1970, the population of California was 80 percent of non-Hispanic whiteswith Republican Governor Ronald Reagan and both houses of the state legislature controlled by Republicans. That was the last year Republicans had a trifecta in the state. Currently, California’s non-Hispanic white population is dropped to 34 percentand the state is under absolute Democratic control. They have held both houses of the state legislature since 1997, and aside from the anomaly of Schwarzenegger from 2004 to 2010, the state has not had a Republican governor since 1998.
Keeping in mind that correlation does not necessarily imply causation, here is a nationwide look at the correlation between the percentage of non-Hispanic whites and the percentage of “GOP-leaning” voters. Using data from US Census Bureau AND GallupThe scatterplot below plots party preference on the vertical axis and the non-Hispanic white population on the horizontal axis. You don’t have to do a regression analysis to see the robust correlation. Generally speaking, the higher the percentage of whites in any given U.S. state, the higher the percentage of GOP voters, and the lower the percentage of whites, the lower the percentage of GOP voters.
Just as correlation may not equate to causation, actions may not be motivated by certain truisms. But with another American presidential election coming up in a few months, it may be productive to speculate about what might constitute additional, much deeper motivations. It is not enough to claim that Democrats want to import millions of nonwhite voters, while Democrats relentlessly demonize white Republicans as racist bigots living on stolen land. All this is true and attracts Democratic votes, but it is a superficial phenomenon.
Democrats are part of a one-party group that once included most Republican politicians. Until 2016, most Americans accepted what was always the false illusion of a competitive two-party system. Of course, there were debates on the fringes of politics. But there was a consensus that embraced mass immigration for purely pragmatic and economic reasons.
Government agencies at all levels welcomed the up-to-date programs that would have to be funded to support the up-to-date immigrants. Private businesses welcomed the influx of workers willing to accept low wages. Investors welcomed the inevitable shortages—aided by the useful stupidity of environmental extremists—that boosted the value of their portfolio assets. In general, as population grows, government, the economy, and monopolies grow. Most of that growth, however, wronged middle class. It has also denied social advancement to low-income communities and youth in America.
But starting in 2016, the illusion of competition between the time-honored parties has been shattered, and for the past eight years, the Republican Party has systematically eliminated its RINOs. As a result, for the first time in state-of-the-art history, Americans have a choice in November. It’s a choice that is increasingly supported by people of color.
Democrats today are made up of two very distinct groups. At the top are donors and voters who are white liberals who are either wealthy enough to be exempt from the economic challenges most Americans face today or who actively benefit from them. At the bottom are millions of Americans who have become dependent on government assistance to survive. But will nonwhite Americans continue to believe that their poverty is caused by Republican racists and that only by voting for Democrats can they hope to survive economically?
According to voting data from the last few elections, this narrative is wearing slender. In 2012, Latino voters went to one-party stooge Mitt Romney by 27 percent. In 2016, Trump I increased it to 29 percentand in 2020, Trump won 32 percent from Latinos. After a surge earlier this year, Kamala Harris’ candidacy supposedly derailed Trump’s momentum among Latinos, but even so, as of August 5Trump’s support in key battleground states among Latinos has risen to 37 percent. Some polls conducted earlier this year showed Trump before Biden among Latinos.
Even the near-universal support for Democrats among blacks is eroding. Romney drew a paltry 6 percent of the black vote in 2012, and Trump I increased it to 8 percent in 2016. However, by 2020, Trump had increased his share black vote to 12 percentIn this election, until Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee, polls consistently estimated that Trump’s support among black voters increased to 23 percent.
Asian voters are also moving away from voting, and some indicators suggest they have done much more in the past few elections. 2016 Exit Polls Asian support for Trump was 18 percent, up from 18 percent in 2020 increased to 31 percentJuly 2024 poll shows Asian voters support Trump maintaining 31 percentalthough this was before Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee.
Overall, decades of voting data confirm that nonwhites overwhelmingly support Democrats, but the data also shows that support has declined with each election cycle. More importantly, something fundamental has changed since 2016. The Republicans are a fully transformed party in 2024, capable of offering a real choice. RINOs are now the exception, not the rule.
This time, nonwhite voters, along with their non-Hispanic white counterparts, will have the opportunity to decide between two visions of the future. If they vote Republican, they support merit-based, controlled immigration. They support crackdowns on environmental extremism, along with an all-of-the-above energy strategy that lowers the cost of living. They support law and order, including crackdowns on fentanyl traffickers and a declaration of war on drug cartels. They support deregulation to allow businesses vast and compact to flourish, creating millions of jobs. And they support world peace.
They may also support a few professional demagogues who engage in criticism of racial and gender differences, but they will do none of the above.
If Republicans can convey this up-to-date reality, that they are the party of peace and prosperity, and Democrats the party of endless war and an economy rigged to benefit bureaucrats and billionaires, then they will break the cycle. What Democrats are offering Americans this year is not a future anyone should want, regardless of background.
Demographic trends in America may indeed be ushering in a change in direction, but it won’t necessarily be the change that Democrats have long taken for granted.
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Edward Ring is a senior fellow at the Center for American Greatness. He is also director of water and energy policy at the California Policy Center, which he co-founded in 2013 and served as its first president. Ring is the author of Fixing California: Abundance, Pragmatism, Optimism (2021) and The Abundance Choice: Our Fight for More Water in California (2022).
Photo “Voters Casting Ballots” by Phil Roeder.
