How did CNN allow this to be published? Just kidding, although I’m sure the headline would irritate some old-school Democratic Party supporters. Change has happened, people. The Democratic Party can no longer call itself the party of the working class, which has always been the left’s claim to fame in election years. This is the party of the common man, the worker. Every two to four years it was glued to election tents. Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are among the most vocal public figures speaking about the working man, the forgotten man and how to improve his life, although they differ significantly in this respect. It’s left-wing and right-wing populism, both on the rise due to Washington’s long history of failing to get things done, smearing and lying to voters. Such anger can cause shockwaves in the electorate, and we have it here. In less than 20 years, the backbone of the Democratic working class has disintegrated.
We all saw it in 2016. The debate raged over how Democrats could defeat Trump in 2020. Will we reach working-class whites or double down on their usual bases of support? Democrats chose the latter, so to speak. Suburban voters were concerned about Trump’s performance, which inflated the numbers, but Democrats no longer care about or know any working-class people. These are all wealthy, snobbish, educated elites in the cities and on the coasts. Now, with compact defections from the Rust Belt and suburban voters turning to Trump during Covid-19, I can see how Democrats could win. Frankly, subtle shifts in the white working-class voter base could bring down an entire campaign. Remember that if the GOP wins about 43,000 additional votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin, Trump will remain in office. In the House, the GOP needed just 32,000 votes to regain the majority. Keeping the Senate? This only required a shift of 0.3 percent, or an additional 14,000 votes. Liberals LOVE popular vote counts. They don’t matter. Maneuvering the Electoral College is a whole different ballgame.
However, one thing that stood out clearly was that education, not income, was the key predictor of white voters. And CNN’s Harry Enten dug deeper, declaring that the Republican Party is now the undisputed voice of working-class Americans (via CNN):
Democrats represent just five seats out of 65 districts (8%) that have a higher percentage of whites without a college degree. All of these Democratic representatives were incumbents heading into the 2020 elections (i.e., no non-incumbent like Hart won in these districts). Further, just two of the 50 districts with non-college-educated whites have a Democratic representative, and none of the top 10 districts have one.
It’s worth noting that it was no different the last time Democrats took back the House from Republicans in 2006, the last time the seat was held by Republicans. Democrat Dave Loebsack’s victory over moderate Republican Jim Leach this year sealed the Democratic midterm victory. (Loebsack held the position until earlier this year, when Miller-Meeks replaced him after he declined to seek another term in 2020.)
[…]
After the 2006 election, Democrats controlled 44% of districts with at least as many white non-college graduates as Iowa’s 2nd District. They occupied 23 of the top 50 districts that fit this description, which is 21 more than they currently have. Additionally, Democrats held five of the top 10 districts compared to zero today.
One of those five in 2006 was Democrat Zack Space from Tuscarawas County, Ohio, in the state’s 2nd District. He won by 24 points in the vacant seat and 45 points in his home county. This district, as it then existed, had more non-student whites as a proportion of the adult population than all but one district in the country.
To give you an idea of how much has changed in the last 15 years, former President Donald Trump won Tuscarawas by 40 points in 2020.
[…]
White non-college voters were reluctant to vote for Democrats in 2020 House races, regardless of income level. White voters without a college degree favored Republicans by about 26 points if their family income was below the median. They voted for Republicans by 31 points if their family income was above the median.
Among all white respondents, the Democratic advantage increased by 39 points when respondents had a college degree. The House margin among all white respondents shifted 5 points toward Democrats when their family income was above the median compared to below.
It’s not that higher incomes make white voters more Democratic, but rather that education is such a powerful pull factor that better-educated voters tend to be wealthier. That’s why, in recent years, wealthier white areas have tended to go Democrat and poorer areas go Republican. The latter tend to be filled with less educated voters, while the former have more educated voters.
In other words, income doesn’t matter much among white voters. Education means everything.
So I’m sure you already knew this, but Enten added that “in 2006… non-college-educated white voters actually favored Democrats by a 3-point margin if their family income was below the median.” White voters favored Republicans by 13 points if their family income was above the median.”
That’s a huge share of voters that Democrats need to win back, or at least not have apocalyptic results, if they want to have a better chance of achieving their legislative goals. The good news is that the woke left will not allow this to happen. The base of the Democratic Party has an unbridled hatred of rural America and people without college degrees, so it won’t happen unless Democrats are brutally destroyed in the next election and this trend finally sinks into the minds of liberals. It’s not like the GOP mounted a massive messaging campaign to attract these voters to its camp. We are simply the party of fewer regulations, taxes and more jobs. We are patriots. We know when to shut up and not give up lectures on intersectionality at sporting events. We are a party for normal people. The Democrats sided with wealthy white leftists in the cities. It’s not constant.
Former 2012 Obama veteran David Shor noted that white liberals’ inroads into the Democratic base can cost the party dozens of votes, and that non-white voters are not as ideological as white progressives and have a nasty habit of pinning racial political positions on voting blocs , even though there is no data to support such claims. I bet the average white progressive thinks Latinos support a path to citizenship by over 60 percent. In fact, it’s barely above 50 percent, and the defunding white liberals shouted about as police mischief actually caused black and Latino voters to support Republicans. Not good for two voting blocs that typically support Democrats. Moreover, since more education means more cash, these white liberals will fill the campaign coffers and have more influence on the agenda. That’s how it works. I see A LOT of problems with this trend, especially in this era of wokeness, political correctness, and white liberals taking on the mantle of defending non-white people…which is not their calling. The limitations of this strategy will take root as we enter the midterms in 2022. Enten noted in a separate article that Biden it didn’t gain any modern support since the 2020 election, which spells trouble if that happens.
At the same time, Republicans can and should do a better job of reaching suburban and even urban voters on a key issue that affects everyone: the education of our children. With teachers unions pausing school reopenings due to Covid. This is an excellent opportunity to discuss issues related to school choice, which everyone supports. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says it is secure to reopen. Science says reopening is secure. Even Joe Biden says reopening is fine, but unions would rather cling to political power, screw the kids and stay on vacation.
Biden has promised to reopen schools if elected. So far he has failed in this endeavor.
