First, some general background: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin early last year voted with his party to pass the Biden administration’s Covid “rescue plan,” which even prominent Democratic economists warned would trigger massive inflation. It was a massive waste, spending nearly $1.9 trillion on a litany of projects, the expansive majority of which were not even directly related to the immediate pandemic emergency. Manchin and a handful of other Democrats have since admitted that the bill spent too much money and caused painful inflation. In 2022, after he and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (now formally an independent) destroyed his party’s $5 trillion “Build Back Better” inflation bomb, Manchin shocked Washington by announcing out of nowhere an agreement on the so-called Inflation Act” – an additional frenzy that, as even Bernie Sanders admitted, wasn’t actually intended to lower inflation.
This legislation, signed triumphantly by President Biden, doubled the size of the Internal Revenue Service (yes, that IRS), which will now have much greater enforcement power to track miniature financial exchanges made by middle- and working-class Americans, thanks to a newly lowered threshold established in the “rescue plan for 2021”. Quite a number of achievements for the Democratic Party, right? To ensure his vote for the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, party leaders promised Manchin they would pass an energy authorization bill at a later date. It won’t be included in the main bill, but it was very much part of the deal, Manchin repeated. Schumer and others have promised to find a way to do it in this Congress. Manchin hailed it as a major victory for West Virginia, but many observers, including yours truly, were skeptical at the time. Here’s part of what I wrote back in August in an article titled “Will Manchin be crushed by Democrats?”
If Democrats get what they want out of Manchin by passing a massive tax and spending bill, might not even a miniature number of them immediately refuse to fulfill the secondary assurances he had been promised? Those pledges were enough to get his name on the dotted line, but that piece of paper could become worthless the moment the Schumer/Manchin legislation reaches President Biden’s desk… Democrats have zero margin for error in the Senate and almost zero margin for error in the House. A few defections, especially those ostentatiously dressed as revenge against Manchin for dashing any leftist dreams over the past two years, would jeopardize what he was promised. Leaders could squeeze these elements into the laws that are “in force” to make it harder for rivals to play, but nothing would be certain. Manchin has warned of “consequences” if any part of his deal isn’t kept, but what does he mean by that? If Democrats pass the part everyone likes and then the separate pipeline and permitting piece of legislation implodes for some reason, what will Manchin do? Change party? Unlikely.
Manchin has tried to push the permissive element into other legislation on multiple occasions, but to no avail. His latest attempt to keep his promise of a “mandatory” defense appropriations bill it also crashed and burned last week:
The Senate rejected Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) latest attempt to tie his energy deal with Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to mandatory legislation. The House, by a 47-47 majority, blocked the Manchin amendment authorizing reforms to the defense funding law known as the National Defense Authorization Act. Sixty votes were needed to pass this resolution. Schumer promised Manchin he would pursue legislation to speed up the approval process for fresh U.S. energy projects in exchange for Manchin’s vote on Democrats’ major climate, health and tax bill. The vote wasn’t exactly along party lines. Republican sense. Shelley Moore Capito (Virginia), Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Rob Portman (Ohio), Mitt Romney (Utah), Dan Sullivan (Alaska), and Pat Toomey (Pa.) voted in favor of the bill. Meanwhile Sense. Democrat Cory Booker (N.J.), Tammy Duckworth (Ill.), Tim Kaine (Va.), Ed Markey (Mass.), Bob Menendez (N.J.), Jeff Merkley (Ore.), Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Elizabeth Warren (Massach.), as well as liberal independent Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.) voted against it. The measure was widely expected to fail on Thursday, but the vote kept Manchin employed as he is expected to continue pushing for a compromise next year.
Manchin reacted to the failed vote with a tantrum against… Republicans:
“Once again Mitch McConnell and the leadership of the Republican Party have placed their own political agenda above the needs of the American people. Energy costs continue to rise as the winter months approach and geopolitical uncertainty continues to test the strength of international ties as Putin weaponizes energy. Despite these challenges, Mitch McConnell and his Republican caucus rejected a bill that would have completed the Mountain Valley Pipeline and quickly delivered natural gas to the market lowering home heating costs for families and making America more secure and energy independent. I believe that anyone who voted against authorizing reforms was not acting in the best interests of our country by rejecting the opportunity to strengthen our nation’s economic and energy security…As frustrating as the political games in Washington are, I won’t give up. “As I have said since my first day in office, I serve the people of West Virginia and the American people with an independent voice, not a political party.”
Firstly, 60 votes were needed to adopt the resolution, but 13 votes were missing. Ten Democrats in the Senate voted “no.” Having stabbed them in the back by secretly making a bad spending deal with Schumer, Manchin now wants Republicans to bail him out of a political problem of his own making. It’s revealing that he chose to blow up the Republican Party and not his own party, whose leadership promised him he would. Manchin appears to have been fooled by the “frustrating political games” he condemns in his statement, targeting people who NO sell him a bill of lading. He has a few more bites at the apple on core government spending bills and could continue that battle in the new Congress. Perhaps he will succeed in the next few days. Perhaps he can pass something next year that would require the Republican-led House to help keep Democrats’ broken promise to Manchin. But so far, Manchin looks like a loser.
He gave his party and Biden the vote they desperately needed to pass their agenda, and was left empty-handed when it came to the supposed future “victory” he secured for them as a concession. It’s too early to say everything is dead, but it looks like it’s on life support. If he finally falters, many West Virginians may begin to wonder whether it makes sense to send this Democratic senator to Washington again when leaders who are strongly opposed by his voters can easily manipulate and deceive him. Many of these voters do I’ve already started to wonder this is what it seems:
Democratic Senator Joe In recent months, Manchin’s approval rating among West Virginia voters has dropped by double digits as he played a key role in crafting a pared-down version of President Joe Biden’s most important domestic legislation, according to political intelligence tracking Morning Consult. That makes him among the most unpopular senators in America ahead of a potential 2024 re-election… A slim majority of West Virginia voters (51%) disapprove of Manchin’s job performance, according to polls conducted July 1-September. 30, compared to 38% in the second quarter of the year…The increase in disapproval was driven largely by West Virginia Republicans and independents, most of whom disapproved of Manchin’s job performance after expressing favorable views earlier this year.
Was also thisfrom September:
A new poll released Wednesday by Jackson County radio station WMOV 1360 AM and Oregon-based Triton Polling and Research found U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin vulnerable after his support for the Inflation Reduction Act. The WMOV/Triton poll examined hypothetical comparisons between Manchin and prominent Republican leaders in West Virginia. If the election were held today, Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey would defeat Manchin 49.5% to 36.2%with 9.4% deciding to support another candidate and 4.9% unsure. Morrisey challenged Manchin in the 2018 U.S. Senate election, losing by three points. Manchin received 49.6% of the vote and Morrisey 46.3%. In a Manchin-Mooney matchup, Mooney would beat Manchin 44.9% to 37.9%, with 12.2% preferring another candidate and 4.9% unsure. Mooney defeated 1st District Rep. David McKinley, R-W.Va., in the May Republican primary in the new northern 2nd District after West Virginia lost the congressional district. Mooney will face Democratic challenger Barry Wendell in November. Gov. Jim Justice would defeat Manchin 46.5% to 32% if the US Senate elections were held today.
Manchin will advance in 2024. Place your bets now: Will he (AND) nevertheless make reform possible, which will lead to a reversal of fortunes and re-election, (B) change party to GOP, (C) withdraw before the next cycle, or (D) run again as a Democrat and lose? I think it is too (me) you can’t achieve reform-enabling reform, run again as a Democrat, and win – but given the above numbers, it seems a bit far-fetched, but not impossible. Manchin’s mandate represents the GOP’s best chance of winning the seat in the next election. How likely is it that Republicans will bend over backwards to facilitate him win politically, given this reality and his partisan fraud on behalf of Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer?
