When it comes to midterm elections, the president’s party has historically lost seats in Congress, especially against presidents with low approval ratings. When legislation like the CHIPS Act and the misnamed “Inflation Reduction Act” passed in slow July and August, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings rose slightly, which Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media were quick to promote. July was not a good month for the president, however, and his ratings fell again in September, which is not a good sign as we head into the November midterms.
On Thursday, Morning Consultation a survey was published showing the president was underwater in 45 states using third-quarter data, from July 1 to Sept. 30. Biden was underwater in 44 states in the second quarter, as disclosed in July.
Eli Yokley’s discussion of the poll begins with a warning to Democrats as the midterm elections approach:
If voters interpret next month’s midterm elections as a referendum on President Joe Biden’s job performance, data from Morning Consult Political Intelligence suggests Democrats will suffer a landslide defeat, with majorities of voters in 41 states disapproving of his job performance in the third quarter of 2022.
As he writes further:
Biden has double-digit leads in states that will be key to Democrats maintaining their narrow control of the Senate next month.
Large majorities of voters disapprove of Biden’s job performance in Arizona (58%), Nevada (56%), New Hampshire (60%), North Carolina (58%), Ohio (60%), Pennsylvania (58%) and Wisconsin (57%). In each of those states, voters are at least twice as likely to “strongly disapprove” of Biden as to “strongly approve.” That’s a stark warning sign for Democrats: If voters who go to the polls in November are motivated primarily by Biden’s job performance, Republicans could see a turnout advantage.
Morning Consult also shared a video on Twitter that showed the regression in approval ratings. In March 2021, Biden had a negative or zero net approval rating in 19 states. In June 2021, that number jumped to 22 states, then exploded to 32 states in September 2021, only to drop to 38 in December 2021, 39 in March 2022, 44 in July 2022, and now 45 states where he is underwater.
Between the second and third quarters of 2022, Biden’s net approval rating fell the most in Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, and Oregon, while in Hawaii his disapproval rate hit 50% for the first time in his presidency, pushing Biden’s net approval rating into negative territory. https://t.co/gHwVygqNWc photo:twitter.com/EZ7MMPrEyU
— Morning Consultations (@MorningConsult) October 13, 2022
In the latest poll, Biden has an advantage in every state except California (where his support is the highest, +9), Vermont (+8), Maryland and New York (both +3), and Massachusetts (+2).
Of particular note is the fact that the president’s approval rating fell the most in Hawaii and Oregon, which are typically considered to be particularly blue states. In Hawaii, Biden has a net -5 approval rating after +6 in July. In Oregon, he has a net -11 approval rating after -2 in July.
While Biden has net support in Massachusetts, Yokley warns about the state: “Fewer than half of Bay State voters praised his performance in the third quarter — yet another rash of approval in his term.”
While Yokley does not mention the Oregon governor’s race, it is worth noting that the state could have a Republican governor for the first time since 1987. Republican candidate Christine Drazan continues to lead in the polls in the three-candidate race against Democrat Tina Kotek and independent candidate Betsy Johnson.
Yokley does mention other races, though, especially Democratic senators up for reelection, who don’t seem to be as affected by Biden’s approval ratings. In the very next paragraph, after the potential “thrashing,” he mentions:
Polls suggest Biden could further strain the environment that includes his party’s vulnerable senators as they endure sustained attacks from their Republican rivals. But those lawmakers also appear poised to share at least some of their votes with Republican governors who will also be on the ballot next month.
Later, there is also a more detailed mention of other Democrats doing better than Biden:
But other data suggests voters may be judging this midterm election cycle differently than most. For example, despite Biden’s weakening position in the Senate battleground, a handful of Democratic incumbents — most notably Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona — appear to be resisting a decline.
Kelly, once considered the most vulnerable Democratic senator, is ahead of Biden in the approval ratings by 50% to 40%, and far fewer voters give the novel lawmaker unfavorable ratings (42% to 58%). Those numbers represent a modest improvement for Kelly ahead of his runoff against Republican Blake Masters next month — a rarity compared with other Democratic incumbents.
While other Democratic incumbents are not gaining ground in the final stretch before the election, they are not necessarily losing ground.
In Washington, Sen. Patty Murray’s approval rating (48%) was unchanged between the two quarters as Republicans closed in on her seat against Tiffany Smiley. The same is true for Colorado Sen. Michael Bennett (47% approval), who will face Republican Joe O’Dea next month. Both lawmakers, whose seats are seen as bigger opportunities for the GOP, have similar approval ratings to the president but much lower disapproval rates.
Third-quarter polling showed the Nevada environment was largely unchanged from the previous quarter, with Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto comfortably ahead of the president in popularity. Democrats’ numbers dipped slightly in Georgia, where Sen. Raphael Warnock faced Republican Herschel Walker, and in New Hampshire, where Sen. Maggie Hassan faced Republican Donald Bolduc.
Biden’s net approval rating continues to decline in Georgia and New Hampshire. But, as in Arizona and Nevada, both Warnock and Hassan are ahead of Biden’s approval rating while maintaining significantly lower disapproval rates than the president.
When it comes to such races, some incumbents are in a better position than others, including Senators Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Patty Murray (D-WA), Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH).
Republican candidates appear to have a better chance against Senators Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), especially since the latter’s race is considered a close call. polls actually show her opponent Adam Laxalt had a slight advantage.
Despite signs of cautious optimism expressed about the Democratic incumbents, it is believed that gaining control of the Senate is either “uncertain” or that Democrats will have only a narrow advantage.
