As we have written extensively, every poll conducted in battleground states reflects poorly on President Joe Biden. Elections will almost certainly be held in these key states, and the deeply unpopular incumbent president is not faring well against former and potentially future President Donald Trump. The Senate looks particularly good for Republicans looking to regain control, but the bigger challenge would be for Republicans to maintain their increasingly shrinking advantage in the House. As it turns out, Biden is also in trouble on the battlefields.
Late last week, Cygnal published his survey likely voters in 39 battleground districts, 21 of which belong to Republican incumbents (54 percent) and 15 to Democratic incumbents (38 percent).
The districts in question include:
- Arizona-01: Republican David Schweikert
- Arizona-06: Republican Juan Ciscomani
- California-03: Republican Kevin Kiley
- California-13: Republican John Duarte
- California-40: Republican Young Kim
- California-41: Republican Ken Calvert
- California-45: Republican Michelle Steel
- California-47: Vacant seat once held by former Republican Kevin McCarthy
- Colorado-03: There will be an open seat for Republican Ken Buck, who will leave the country at the end of this week
- Colorado-08: Democratic Republican Yadira Caraveo
- Connecticut-05: Democratic Republican Jahana Hayes
- Florida-27: Republican María Salazar
- Iowa-01: Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks
- Iowa-03: Republican Zach Nunn
- Illinois-17: Democratic Republican Eric Sorensen
- Michigan-07: Democratic Republican Elissa Slotkin
- Michigan-01: Republican John James
- North Carolina-01: Democrat Republican Don Davis
- Nebraska-02: Republican Don Bacon
- New Hampshire-01: Democratic Republican Chris Pappas
- New Jersey-07: Republican Thomas Kean Jr.
- New Mexico-02: Democratic Republican Gabe Vasquez
- New York-02: Republican Andrew Garbarino
- New York-03 Democratic Republican Tom Suozzi
- New York-17: Republican Mike Lawler
- New York-18: Democratic Republican Pat Ryan
- New York-19: Republican Rep. Mark Molinaro
- New York-22: Republican Brandon Williams
- Ohio-09: Democratic Republican Marcy Kaptur
- Ohio-13: Democratic Republican Emilia Sykes
- Oregon-05: Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer
- Pennsylvania-07: Democratic Republican Susan Wild
- Pennsylvania-08: Democrat Republican Matt Cartwright
- Pennsylvania-10: Republican Scott Perry
- Rhode Island-02: Rep. Democrat Seth Magaziner
- Texas-15: Republican Monica De La Cruz
- Virginia 02: Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans
- Virginia 07: Will be open with Democratic Rep. running for governor. Abigail Spanberger
- Washington-03: Democratic Republican Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
What’s particularly compelling is that while states like California and New York are not considered battleground states when it comes to electoral votes, they have more districts on the rolls – six each – than any other state. Guy and I also looked at how voter trends and sentiment matter even in these states.
Each poll asks Congress a general question about whether voters prefer a Republican to a Democrat. In this case, Republicans maintain the advantage with 46.8% support compared to 43.6% support for Democrats.
According to the Insights & Analysis poll, the boost is due to “voters without a college degree,” which are considered a “key voting demographic.”
Republicans lead in battleground districts when there is a Republican incumbent (48% to 42%) and when seats are open (46% to 43%). Even more thrilling is the fact that in the case of the incumbent Democratic candidate in the total number of votes, the tie is 46%.
Since then, Trump has increased his very slim lead, from 44.8-44.2% over Biden in January, to his current lead with 47.2% support, while Biden has gained only anemic support at 44.8%. He actually experienced a -3% shift among other Democrats. Trump even leads among Latinos – 47% to Biden’s 43%. Compared to the January poll, he had a 6 percent change among that demographic.
Trump is also doing better among those who voted for him in 2020 and are likely to do so again (94%), while Biden retained his support at 87% and 5%. now claims to support Trump this time after voting for Biden in 2020.
Turning to battleground districts, Trump enjoys 49 percent support in districts with a Republican incumbent, while Biden enjoys a similar 48 percent support in districts with a Democrat incumbent, implying a plurality of support for both sides.
Despite all the talk about Biden being the best candidate to face Trump again, the Insights & Analysis poll notes that “the Democratic nominee other than Biden is also 2 points behind Trump” (45-43%).
As Brock McCleary, Polling’s vice president and lead pollster here, emphasized to Townhall, Biden faces a problem. “Biden’s approval for president is 20 percent lower in both Republican and Democratic battleground districts. On the other hand, approval of Trump’s term as president is plus one in GOP-controlled districts and only minus three in Democratic districts. “The meaning of this delta in the data is this: that Biden bears more responsibility for his mandate than Trump,” he said in a statement.
McCleary’s key conclusions include that “disapproval of Biden’s performance in office remains high.” Currently, his disapproval rating is 56.5 percent and just 37.2 percent approve of the job he is doing. Voters are much more evenly split on Trump’s job performance: 47.5 percent disapprove and 46.8 percent approve, which still gives Trump a nearly 10-point lead on this measure.
Trump also has an advantage over Biden in favorable rankings.
While both have a negative net rating, Biden’s rating is significantly worse at -21.1 compared to Trump’s -9.8. The number of voters who say they have a “very unfavorable” opinion is almost identical, at 46.8% for Biden and 46.7% for Trump. However, Trump enjoys significantly more voters who say they have a “very favorable” opinion of him compared to Biden – 29.5% and 19.5%, respectively.
Biden’s overall unfavorable rating increased from 57.5%. in January to 59.5 percent Currently. A March poll showed that only 38.4 percent of voters viewed him favorably. He even experienced a -8 percent change compared to other Democrats. Meanwhile, Trump’s favorable rating increased from 42.1%. in January to 44.1 percent in March. Deep polling results show Trump gaining a 2% margin with other Republicans, 3% with Independents and 7% with Black and Latino voters.
Vice President Kamala Harris has an almost equally bad net negative with her image rating of 20.1. Overall, 57.4 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of her, prompting McCleary to warn that she “continues to weigh down the Biden campaign with poor numbers among key voter groups.”
Last month we wrote how Cygnal’s poll showed that while immigration had gained importance, inflation still had a slight advantage. But immigration is now in the battleground among voters in the March poll the the most critical issue.
“Border security and illegal immigration” is now considered a top priority by 29.7 percent of voters, while “inflation and cost of living” is now second with 22.6 percent saying it is a top priority. A majority of Republican Party voters (58%) and those who voted for Trump in 2020 (57%) say this is the most critical issue. This is a shift of 21 percent of Republican voters. Twenty-three percent of independent voters say this because a majority of these voters (27 percent) still say inflation is their top priority. Many Democratic voters appear to have bought into the party’s narrative about so-called threats to democracy, as 25 percent say it is their top priority. Overall, this is the third priority – 12.9% say so.
Significantly, many Latino respondents consider immigration their top priority, with 26 percent saying so. This means a 13 percent change in the opinion of such voters.
Voters are asked further about immigration which statement they agree with most. When asked whether to choose between four statements or “not sure,” a majority (47.3%) responded: “The United States must enforce its current immigration laws and should be able to deport people who enter illegally.”
Majorities of Republicans (57 percent) and Independents (52 percent) chose this statement, as did many Latinos (43 percent).
Biden’s situation gets even worse because “Battleground voters tend to trust Republicans more on border security (R Trust 52% – D Trust 37%).” Independents trust Republicans by +20, and while Latinos trust Democrats again, it’s only by +1.
While violent crime may not be as high a priority issue as others, it is worth mentioning and included in the “Insights and Analysis” section given that a plurality of voters, 41.3 percent, blame Democrats. This is an boost of almost 5 percent compared to January, when 36.7 percent said so. That’s not even close, considering 20.8% blame both sides, 18.5% blame Republicans and 14.7% blame neither.
One of McCleary’s most critical conclusions is that “most voters believe laws are not tough enough and encourage both property and violent crimes” and that “Democrats are playing a perilous game by moderating crime ,” with McCleary mentioning in that note how “crime is a critical mistake for Democrats as more and more voters equate a lenient approach to crime with a lenient approach to the border, especially as 41 percent said Democrats are to blame for rising crime.”
The poll was conducted March 5-7 among 1,500 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.45 percent.
