Senator Bernie Sanders is the favorite. He really solidified his position with his victory in New Hampshire, but some people didn’t see it as official until he swept the Nevada primary. I mean, even if there were major tabulation issues like in Iowa, there was no question Bernie won. His defections from key groups in the state made Sanders virtually invincible. There was no way Bernie was going to lose this contest, which he did decently in 2016. Now he heads to South Carolina, where he has to weaken former Vice President Joe Biden’s black voter barrier. Biden has seen his support among black voters drop by about 19 points. And I wouldn’t be surprised if Sanders won there. If that happens, the race is pretty much over, or at least Sanders will lose it.
It’s the complete opposite of Sanders’ 2016 scenario: Bernie breaks Biden’s firewall by showing he can win black voters, triumphs in a state that derailed his first presidential election, and now claims to have won three consecutive elections. Yes, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg won more delegates in Iowa, but Sanders won the popular vote — which he considers a victory. I’m analyzing it a bit, but winning New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina still provides a momentum that I don’t think any other Democratic candidate could stop. Even if Joe Biden wins South Carolina, will it be enough? No. After his dismal showing in New Hampshire and Nevada, and his inability to show he’s a heavyweight by winning a landslide in South Carolina, Joe doesn’t have much reason to stay in this fight. Joe needs to win substantial — and he probably won’t on Saturday.
So now we have a moment where a self-identified democratic socialist is going to be the nominee of a major party. It shows that the Democratic Party is moving to the left. And Bernie is so radical that he’s a sure thing for President Trump, right? I don’t know about that. I’m trying not to read the tea leaves too early, but the groups that gave Sanders the win in Nevada were newborn people, Latinos, and union workers (via NBC News) [emphasis mine]:
Sanders, who performed well in the Iowa primary and won a narrow victory in the New Hampshire primary, rode a wave of support Young voters, liberal voters and Latinos came first in Saturday’s contest — strengthening his position as favorite. It’s still too early to bet on second and third place.
With about 50 percent of precincts in the state reporting, Sanders won 46.6 percent of the vote. Former Vice President Joe Biden got 19.2 percent, while former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg got 15.4 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, got 10.3 percent. Mike Bloomberg, who is rising in national polls but had a lackluster debate this week in Las Vegas, is skipping the first four states and is not on the ballot.
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Sanders wins — in third round of 2020 Democratic primaries — shows that the Vermont senator can compete effectively in a more diverse electorate:The contestants in Saturday’s contest are far more racially diverse than voters in any presidential election this year, according to an NBC News advance poll.
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Sanders also did well among African-American voters.. Early exit polls showed Sanders with 27 percent of the black vote, second only to Joe Biden’s 36 percent. African-American voters made up about 1 in 10 voters in Nevada’s primary.
Before the primary, the state’s culinary union — one of the most influential unions in a state dominated by the hospitality industry — appeared to turn against the candidate, issuing a flier saying his “Medicare for All” plan would “end culinary health care.” Still, more than half of Nevada primary voters said they supported Sanders’s “Medicare for All” proposal, according to an NBC News Entrance Poll.
In fact, Sanders’ strength among Latinos, which was reported before the primaries, turned out to be a harbinger of his landslide victory. If these groups sound familiar, you’d be right; it’s Obama’s coalition. And that’s what’s so terrifying about Bernie’s defeat in Nevada. We’ve faced this coalition twice and we’ve lost. This is one of the coalitions of voters that you could probably call unbeatable.
We’ll have a better picture of this after Super Tuesday, but the missing piece here is white working-class voters. Obama didn’t do well with this group, but it was enough to secure landslides in 2008 and 2012. Sanders will have to win at least 36 percent of the white working class voteas much as Obama did in 2012. If things are headed that way, then yes — it may be time to panic. For now, I’m just a little nervous, although I see a fair amount of crow to be consumed if that comes to pass, considering I’ve declared that Trump will win reelection, and there’s no one in this Democratic field in 2020 who can beat him. Of course, it’s still early.
For God’s sake, the Democrats don’t have an official candidate yet. Despite that, I see some of my conservative buddies on social media spreading their Electoral College predictions for 2020, while Bernie seems unstoppable. I mean, everyone is saying it’s going to be a 400+ electoral win for Trump. Given those Nevada exits for Bernie, I’m not sure we’ll see the 1972 Nixon-McGovern results here.
One of the fascinating outcomes of this Nevada contest was the union vote. The influential food service union did not endorse anyone. Biden was seen as too yesterday, while Bernie Sanders’ Medicare for All was a bridge too far. Ordinary unionists broke with the leadership. Will that happen in the Rust Belt? Will these people challenge their union leadership over Bernie Sanders, who is running on a platform that will take away more than $150 million from private health plans, and millions of union households are in the crosshairs? Nevada unionists did not care. Will that trend continue as we move east and south with these primaries?
It has been reported that another election-killing issue for Bernie could be his blanket ban on fracking. In states like Pennsylvania, that would kill hundreds of thousands of jobs. Top union leaders in the Keystone State have said that because of that, if Bernie or Liz Warren are nominated, they will tell their members to either vote for Trump or not vote at all. Losing health insurance is one thing, losing your job is another — and Sanders has no qualms about condemning millions of Americans to economic misery with his climate change policies. The thing is, many people on the right think being labeled a socialist, communist, or a leftist nutjob is enough to kill this presidential campaign. Nope. Not enough. Bernie can do all those things, but Sanders has been in the spotlight for years. He has a national following. People know where he stands, and he could very well be the nominee in the summer, or at least grab enough delegates that things could get very bloody and fascinating for the Democrats when the convention comes around. The fact that such a man is so close is another scary aspect of the political landscape. But blowing up the system because it’s rigged might be attractive to some Trump supporters. And here’s another reason to worry. Bernie’s main line, which is to create a government from the ashes of the elderly order that works for everyone, is attractive to two blocs in the Trump coalition.
The Cato Institute surveyed about 8,000 voters from Trump’s diverse base. This may come as a shock to some, but two groups, American conservatives and anti-elites, are economic progressives, and both believe the system is rigged for the wealthy and powerful. It’s a strange group, indeed. American conservatives are the people who are likely to be on Medicaid. Anti-elites don’t hate Hillary Clinton; half of those surveyed at the time viewed her favorably. While they aren’t a staunch voting bloc in the primaries, if they were, they probably would have voted for… John Kasich. American conservatives may find Bernie’s message appealing, but they are staunch supporters of immigration enforcement, which the Democratic Party strongly opposes—an issue that remains relevant and drives people to vote. It’s partly responsible for Ohio being so red since 2016. The anti-elites, those who stopped voting for Kasich, can keep me awake at night.
Now there is some hope. First, the rustbelt workers could follow their leadership and not throw themselves at the man who will destroy their livelihoods—not all union members are the same. Second, the working-class vote could stay with Trump. This is a huge bloc of voters that the left has ignored for years, which is why Trump is president and Hillary Clinton is not. Small changes in the white working class could make or break a candidate. As TNew Republic warned in 2014 that only one percent drop in support could threaten the Democrat. And that needle could be moved, especially if the Republicans emphasize Bernie’s bill for his left-wing agenda, but hit home on losing jobs and taking away health care plans. There’s Israel. There’s his affinity for Latino powerhouses with left-wing beliefs. There’s a lot of things that could muddy the waters for the white working class, but this is going to be ugly. We’ve all heard and know about base-centric elections. Well, this is going to be just that, but let’s multiply that by a thousand.
We all say that political coalitions are not portable; Hillary has learned from her outrageous support among newborn voters and the white working class that Obama’s coalition will not save her. But Sanders May be reconspiring them all. Things will be clearer on March 3.
