Unlike previous elections where certain factors, issues or problems stood out clearly in explaining the results, analyzing this midterm election is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle: many pieces, no clear picture of what has happened and what is coming. Here are the pieces I see at the moment:
No. 1: Yes large disconnect between what people say matters to them and how they voted. Americans have been telling pollsters for months that they are most concerned about inflation, crime and illegal immigration. And then they voted for candidates who would give them more of the same.
No. 2: Abortion was the large winner. This was #1 for Pennsylvanians who voted for John Fetterman. Michigan, California AND Vermont introduced virtually unlimited abortion rights into their constitutions. Montanans rejected a ballot proposal that would have required medical care for children who survive abortions. Ironically, the success of state abortion initiatives reinforces the main point of the Supreme Court’s 2010 decision Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization: that abortion should be governed by state law, not federal law.
No. 3: Early voting is problematic. Nearly 700,000 people voted in Pennsylvania before Fetterman’s disastrous debate performance. Since then, adversary Dr. Mehmet Oz has begun to gain strength. Historically, a lot of crucial information comes at the end of campaign seasons. This matters when voters don’t have access to it before casting their ballots.
No. 4: A theme emerges here: lack of information; lack of commitment. The Democratic Party is intentionally running candidates who are empty shells, absent from the campaign trail (or with disastrous results), and/or clearly incompetent.
It works. Joe Biden won in 2020, so did Fetterman, Katie Hobbs, David Scott and Kathy Hochul this week. (Hobbs refused to debate opponent Kari Lake; New York Magazine’s Intelligence called her campaign “weak.”) Scott he was not heard from at all during the last few weeks of the campaign. FettermanHis sufferings are well known. There’s also former Pennsylvania Rep. Anthony DeLuca, who won in a landslide, even though he died last month.)
This suggests three things: First, Democratic voters are not voting as much Down candidate during voting against other; secondly, the leadership of national parties does not include most issues in voting; and third, the real power will not rest in the hands of elected spokesmen, but of those who pull the strings behind the scenes.
No. 5: It’s not just a message; it’s a messenger. Ron DeSantis’ victory in Florida (and J.D. Vance in Ohio) proves that it is not only possible but politically advantageous for conservative candidates to take robust, principled stands. When they do this, they can succeed across a wide range of constituencies, which leads to actual (as opposed to illusory) red waves. This is not an “electable” RINO pablum either. When it comes to the “America First” message, as well as state sovereignty, parental rights and economic vitality, DeSantis is Donald Trump without the baggage.
Trump’s policies as president were incomparably better than those of the current administration. Trump continues to draw tens of thousands of people to his rallies, and he does best when he focuses on issues that affect expansive swaths of Americans: crime, illegal immigration, the economy, inflation. But when he attributes a candidate’s success or failure to loyalty to him personallythe message drops. His stabs examples include unsuccessful Republican Senate candidates Don Bolduc and Joe O’Dea. This self-absorption is a bit humorous when Trump candidates win. But Tuesday made even staunch Trump supporters rethink the future. MAGAverse support on Twitter was shifting toward DeSantis even before the collapse in Republican midterm hopes. Now the belief is spreading that DeSantis’ approach has worked; Trump didn’t do it.
Chances are Trump will announce his 2024 presidential bid next week. The Trump-DeSantis ticket creates compelling possibilities. But if Trump thinks he’s going to trade “Ron DeSanctimonious”-style interjections for a preordained candidate anointment, then I think he’s wrong. Trump is already facing formidable headwinds from every left-controlled institution: the Deep State, the media, academia, woke CEOs, Hollywood. If he splits his base, he will come down and take the team with him. Handing such a victory to the left would be an unforced error of disastrous proportions.
No. 6: As the saying goes, politics is below culture. Americans now realize that they are in a battle against the institutions that shape (and destroy) our culture. A good start is to oppose the policies implemented by leftist school boards. Then you need to consider higher education. Far too many youthful people leave college due to miseducation and indoctrination. A few days before semesters, Nation predicted that Gen Z would deliver to Democrats. After the elections data discovers the truth in it. If the next generation believes in collectivism and censorship, winning this or that weird election will just be a waste of water.
No. 7: State governments are more crucial than ever. There is a huge (and growing) divide in this country. We have fewer common values and lack consensus on the country we want to live in. Blue voters elect people who defend unrestricted abortion and infanticide, crime, homelessness, drug addiction, open borders, high taxes, inflation, censorship and pornography in schools, and the chemical castration and surgical mutilation of youth. Red voters want individual freedom, free speech, school choice, parental rights, age-appropriate curriculum, neat streets, reduced crime, robust law enforcement, secure borders, a robust economy and low taxes. These views cannot be reconciled. More Americans may find themselves moving to states more warm to their worldview.
No. 8: Finally, a smaller federal government is crucial. Electing corrupt or incompetent politicians to state leadership is one thing for the people of New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania and California; it’s a completely different matter when they are sent to Congress and imposed on the rest of us. The Republican Party’s next steps should focus on reducing the size of the federal government, not just taking control of it.
