From the final fall Roe v. Wade in the Supreme Court judgment of 2022 Dobbs decisions, pro-life advocates are on a losing streak. Yes, governors who signed anti-abortion legislation won decisive re-election victories, but pro-abortion activists worked to put referendums on statewide ballots and won those battles, including in traditionally red states. They achieved this by significantly outpacing the opposing side in promoting ads that portrayed these positive or negative voting decisions as an urgent opportunity to prevent blanket abortion bans. Unfortunately, the actual fine print of what they presented was quite radical, effectively erasing and eliminating any significant pro-life protections, including popular ones. But that wasn’t how they were presented to voters.
The misleading message was persuasive, and the funding behind these efforts was overwhelmed by the resource-starved and ultimately unpersuasive counter-argument. After Ohio passed an extreme version of this plebiscite last November, Senator J.D. Vance analyzed its results. The entire mini-essay is worth reading, but I highlighted a few specific points:
For the pros, last night was a punch in the gut. He doesn’t coat it in sugar. Giving up on the unborn is not an option. It’s politically stupid and morally repugnant. Instead, we must understand why we lost this battle so that we can win the war. I was very involved in the no campaign for issue 1, so I’ll share some observations. First, we were littered with voters who disliked both No. 1 and Ohio’s current law (the heartbeat law). We’ve seen this consistently in polls and conversations. “I don’t like number 1, but I prefer this extreme to the other.” This is a political fact, not my opinion. Second, we need to realize how much voters distrust us (that is, elected Republicans) on this issue. An unplanned pregnancy is terrifying. At best, you’ll face social scorn and unexpected medical bills worth thousands of dollars. We need people to see us as a pro-life party, not just an anti-abortion party.
Third, as Donald Trump said, “you have to have exceptions.” I am as pro-life as anyone else and I want to save as many children as possible. This is not about moral legitimacy, but about political reality. I’ve seen dozens of good polls on abortion over the last few months, many of them conducted in Ohio. Give people the choice between restricting abortion very early in pregnancy, with exceptions, or taking a pro-choice stance, and the pro-life view will have a fighting chance. Give people a pulse bill with no exceptions and they’ll lose 65-35. (The reason we didn’t lose 65-35 last night is because some people who hate “no exceptions” restrictions will still refuse to vote for issues like issue 1). Fourth, we have spent so much time winning the legal battle over abortion we have fallen behind in moral argumentation. I’ve talked to a lot of decent people who voted yes on issue #1, and their reasons vary. Some called themselves “pro-life” but hated the lack of a rape exception in Ohio law. Some feared that Ohio law would prevent them from dealing with an ectopic pregnancy or late-term miscarriage. Some did not understand the “viability” standard in Issue 1 and believed that of course one should be able to abort a “non-viable” pregnancy because it would pose a risk to the mother.
You can criticize the other side’s propaganda efforts for lying to people about these issues or misleading the public, but it suggests that we need to do a much better job of persuasion. And I’m not just talking about 30-second TV ads – I’m talking about a sustained, multi-year effort to show the heart of the pro-life movement. Fifth, money. We spent a lot of time at No. 1 and across the country. Republicans almost always outperform Democrats. As a result, Democrats do better in off-year elections. The National Party should focus on two and only two issues: how to drive turnout in off-year elections and how to close the funding gap with Democrats. Many people put their heart and soul into this campaign. Local Ohio Right to Life organizations, The Center for Christian Virtue, SBA, Governor Dewine and many others. I tip my hat to them. Many people are celebrating now and I don’t care. I care that because of our defeat, many innocent children will never have a chance to fulfill their dreams. There is something sociopathic about a political movement that tells juvenile women (and men) that murdering their children is liberating. So let’s keep fighting for our country’s children and find a way to win.
This first observation is very significant. We have been following polls for years that show that Americans generally support quite a few restrictions and restrictions on abortion. They oppose the inhumane and extreme position of the National Democrats: taxpayer-funded abortion on demand, for any reason, during all nine months of pregnancy. Even President Biden recently seemed to sense that voters didn’t want that, even though that’s his official position. However, if voters are given a choice between what is sold to them as moderate pro-choice policies and what they perceive as overly prohibitive anti-abortion policies, they will choose the former quite strongly. Pro-lifers must understand this reality and adapt to it – otherwise they lose. Such losses are not just demoralizing political failures; have a real impact on the lives of innocent people, the protection of which is the main goal of the pro-life movement. The nationwide survey will be released this week emphasizes once again that Americans have not suddenly turned into staunch supporters of late-term abortion. If you present them with a European-style consensus policy like this, they are likely to support it. By a double-digit margin, voters favor banning most abortions after four months:
YouGov Poll: Do you support or oppose a national ban on abortion after 16 weeks of pregnancy?
Support 48%
I oppose 36%
—
Male: 49-33
Female: 47-39
18-29 and/or: 52-33
White: 49-37
Black: 46-28
Spanish: 47-34
Dem: 35-50
GOP: 67-23
India: 43-33
—
538: #4 | 18/02-20 | N=1560 pic.twitter.com/ClL5psk8tc— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 21, 2024
Majority or majority of men, women, juvenile people, white voters, black voters, Latino voters, Republicans and independents support this idea. My guess is that if a few common exceptions were added to the wording of the question and rephrased as four months (compared to 16 weeks), the numbers would be higher. Perhaps, in principle, yes. Democrats are rarely willing to respond, if any everyone limits they would support on abortion because their activists and the donor class demand a degree of barbaric radicalism that is anathema to most people. Therefore, they hide behind slogans and distortions of mainstream pro-life views in order to steer the discussion into an area more favorable to them. Of course, they are helped in this by the “news” media, which are extremely biased and extreme on this issue. Pro-lifers can complain about it and argue among themselves about purity tests, or they can find out which of their views are most acceptable to their fellow citizens and lead them. Lives are literally at stake. I’ll leave you with a humble suggestion regardless of what you think about it substantivelyThat’s not the way to win a battle of hearts and minds anywhere, even in a place like Alabama:
The Alabama Supreme Court has ruled that frozen embryos are children and that a person can be held liable for their destruction.
Reproductive rights activists say the case could impact infertility treatments such as in vitro fertilization. pic.twitter.com/PqoJqJhROb
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) February 20, 2024
