On a rugged curve that covered the flood
Their flag unfurled in the April wind
Here stood the worried farmer
And he fired the shot that the whole world heard about
–Ralph Waldo Emerson
Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy’s former Senate seat, meaning any Republican could win anytime, anywhere. This was the fate of the Democratic Party under President Barack Obama.
Will this latest defeat, added to the loss of New Jersey and Virginia, diminish this man’s conceit? Will this make him second guess the course he has set for his party and our nation? Unlikely.
But the effect of this will be to bring good Republican candidates out of the locker room and challenge incumbent Democrats who hold seats that were once considered unwinnable.
The same pattern is repeating itself across the country: Democratic officials operating in districts they thought were safe and sound, but which are no longer safe and sound. But so far there is no viable Republican to challenge them. You can’t beat someone to anyone. And the Republican Party is suffering from a shortage of candidates.
As of this writing, there are no powerful candidates to challenge Democratic Senators Patty Murray (Washington), Ron Wyden (Oregon), Kirsten Gillibrand (New York), Evan Bayh (Indiana) and Russ Feingold (Wisconsin). However, each of these senators is defenseless. If Ted Kennedy’s seat can go to the Republicans, so can theirs.
Right now, Republicans are likely to hold all of the open Senate seats. Of the six seats held by retiring Republicans, only Missouri, Ohio and New Hampshire actually play a role — and the GOP candidate has a clear advantage in each of them.
Then there are five Democratic seats that will likely go to Republicans.
— The Delaware seat vacated by Vice President Biden will likely be filled by Mike Castle, a broad congressman who has won 11 statewide races since 1980. Biden’s son Beau Biden has been gossiping about running, but he’ll probably read the handwriting on the wall and stay home.
When Sen. Byron Dorgan dropped out, he essentially gave up his seat in North Dakota to Gov. John Hoeven, a very popular Republican.
Michael Bennet, the senator appointed to replace Ken Salazar in Colorado, faces a sedate challenge from Jane Norton, a popular former lieutenant governor. He’ll probably win.
Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln has defied her state too many times by voting for health care. He will pay the price in November.
– As does Harry Reid, who lags behind both of his potential opponents. Since his son is running for governor, Reid may not even run for fear of dragging his son down with him. The family needs one of them to hold office. This is how they make money.
This gives the GOP 45 seats.
Next up are two races where the Republican has a good chance – in Pennsylvania and Illinois.
– In Pennsylvania, part-time Republican, part-time Democrat and full-time opportunist Arlen Specter is running for re-election in the primary against Democrat Joe Sestak. Don’t count on Specter staying in the race. And count on him losing the primary if he does. Republican Pat Toomey should win the November race easily against Specter, but harder against Sestak.
– Obama’s Senate seat is in Illinois, and Mark Kirk, the Republican congressman who has led the push for powerful sanctions on Iran, is associated with his potential Democratic rivals. We should take both places.
That would be 47.
Then there’s California, where Carly Fiorina is just a few points behind Barbara Boxer. It’s difficult to imagine California going -0 Republican, but it’s easier than imagining Massachusetts doing it. That would mean 48.
But then the Republican Party will run out of candidates. There is no one powerful who can take on Gillibrand, Bayh, Murray, Widen or Feingold. Does anyone want a Senate seat? Gillibrand (or Harold Ford, if he wins the primary) won’t be difficult to beat. Last time, Murray won with just 55 percent of the vote. Wyden received only 54 percent. Bayh is from Republican Indiana, and Feingold is too liberal for anywhere this side of Cuba.
Let’s hope the Brown race ignites the fire of ambition among aspiring candidates in these key states. They need to win at least three of five games to take control.
