The 2022 midterm elections were a disappointment for Republicans, especially when it came to Democrats gaining a Senate seat. The 2024 Senate map, however, appears much more favorable to Republicans, especially when it comes to seats defended by vulnerable Democratic officials. Aside from the Senate races in Montana and West Virginia, one of the most significant races to watch is Ohio, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is actually running for re-election. AND last survey from Emerson College shows, however, that he may have an uphill battle ahead of him.
As the poll description warned, “Brown Faces Competitive General Election,” with Republican Senate candidates showing a slight lead over Brown or just a few points behind him. All matchups are within the margin of error.
State Sen. Matt Dolan has 38% support to Brown’s 36% support, while Secretary of State Frank LaRose leads with 39% support Brown’s 38%. Brown, however, is doing better in the polls than businessman Bernie Moreno, receiving 35% support compared to Moreno’s 33%. In this match, the largest number of voters were undecided – 32 percent.
OHIO SURVEY
US Senate duels 2024
Matt Dolan 38%
Sherrod Brown 36%Frank LaRose 39%
Sherrod Brown 38%Bernie Moreno 33%
Sherrod Brown 35%https://t.co/L31eLhN9TU pic.twitter.com/F6BrIPTD4V— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 10, 2023
Polling director Spencer Kimball noted that Brown may have problems with enthusiasm. “With just over a year until Ohio’s 2024 U.S. Senate elections, many Democrats with established demographics, such as voters under 30 and Black voters, show lower levels of enthusiasm for Brown,” he noted. “It’s not that these voters are supporting the Republican candidate over Brown, choosing someone else, or noticing that they’re undecided at this point. About one-third of voters under 30 indicate they would vote for someone else or are undecided in Brown/Dolan comparison; 38% of black voters say the same.”
There is positive news for Brown, however, as he leads with the Independents. “The encouraging sign for Brown is that he has a Republican advantage of several points among independent voters,” Kimball said.
For example, Brown has 27% support among independents compared to Dolan’s 21%. He also has 27% support among Independents compared to LaRose’s 18% and 26% support among Independents compared to Moreno’s 17%.
However, Brown is running for re-election in a presidential election year. President Joe Biden, who is also running for re-election, is rather unpopular in Ohio. In the same poll, a majority (58%) disapproved of the job he was doing, while just 25% approved of the job he was doing.
Meanwhile, former and potentially future President Donald Trump leads Biden in the hypothetical matchup by an even larger margin than he won the state in 2016 and 2020, or about 8 points. In a recent poll, Trump has 45 percent of the vote to Biden’s 33 percent, with 12 percent supporting someone else and 11 percent undecided.
Again, voter enthusiasm may play a role here.
“Trump leads Biden in Ohio by 12 points, which is more than his victories in 2020 and 2016 of about eight points,” Kimball noted. “As with the U.S. Senate race, younger and minority voters are more likely to be undecided or vote for someone else, indicating less enthusiasm for Democratic candidates at both the state and national levels.”
Despite the president’s unpopularity in Ohio, Brown did not shy away from him. In a February POLITICO article, “The vast Senate map in 2024 comes down to these 3 DemocratsIt is mentioned that the incumbent senator has no problems campaigning with Biden. He is quoted as saying that it feels “good” for him to run while Biden is on the ballot. He also said he “assumes” he will campaign with the president.
“I run my own race and my own brand. So I’m not going to run away from Biden,” Brown said, claiming he has also “done more than any president in recent history.”
Senate race is currently under consideration “Roll-up” of all forecasters. The first part will take place on March 19.
