Just a few weeks ago, there was a lot of media coverage about liberal Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s chances of unseating Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (a.k.a. “this piece of garbage”, according to our moral superiors). It seemed like a blue wave was brewing (ehm), O’Rourke has been raising money nonstop, and a new poll shows he’s highly competitive just three pointswithin the margin of error. In deep red Texasof all places! Perhaps Beto’s glaring major overnight weaknesses have already faded away, and in 2018 there has been the inevitable nationwide panic on the left; political seriousness began to impose its will. Or maybe giddy liberals were once against wishing for illusions. Quinnipiac syndrome latest study shows Cruz shaking off his (supposedly) tardy start and gaining a double-digit lead. Take a look at some of these interior features:
Texas Senate Poll (Quinnipiac)
Ted Cruz (right) 50%
Beto O’Rourke (Germany) 39%***
Men: Cruz leads 57-35%
Women: Cruz leads 44-42%
Latinos: Cruz leads 46-44%
White: Cruz leads 62-28%
Black: O’Rourke leads 70-15%***
Beneficial:
Cruza 49/38
O’Rourke 30/19https://t.co/CaoeSaWYUN— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) May 30, 2018
Cruz dominates among men and whites, but also slightly leads among… women and Latinos. Meanwhile, O’Rourke attracts only 70 percent of black voters and leads by a very marginal margin (46/41) among 18-34-year-olds. The nationwide electoral climate could swing back in Democrats’ favor in the coming months, but the real red flag for O’Rourke is his low ID. Yes, he will have barrels of money to throw at Cruz in a series of attacks, but Cruz is a known commodity in the state. O’Rourke doesn’t. Team Ted has a huge opportunity to define Beto O’Rourke to voters who aren’t particularly familiar with him – and I bet a lot of Texans won’t be thrilled at the thought of sending The curse of the NRA, supporter of impeachment, abortion radical leftist to Washington. Incidentally, the Lone Star State’s gubernatorial contest looks even more lopsided, with Greg Abbott highly popular (53/27) and impressive leadership for a dominant, broad advantage:
Another tidbit from Q’s new Texas poll: Gov. Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger by a total of 19 points in #TXGov – including a double-digit advantage among adolescent voters… while attracting about 1/5th of black voters. pic.twitter.com/2jtNehbAhJ
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 31, 2018
Once again, this is just one poll and Texas Republicans’ fortunes could swing south. But these are not numbers that indicate a earnest Democratic wave is building, at least in some GOP strongholds. Meanwhile, a new poll shows conservative contenders leading senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri, the resignation of scandal-plagued Gov. Eric Greitens comes as a relief to Republicans in the state. Senate leader Attorney General Josh Hawley called on Greitens to resign, threatening to open a nasty rift within the party, especially as the Republican-dominated Legislature pursued impeachment. This ugly chapter appears to be coming to an end soon, giving the team months to unite and train their fire and attention on the extremely vulnerable McCaskill. I also found this virtual whisper A favorable survey number be intriguing:
I just saw a private poll with Renacci at 56%(!) in #OHSsen.
— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) May 30, 2018
Take this information with a grain of salt, but if the Ohio Senate race is indeed competitive – most pundits assumed that liberal Sherrod Brown would seek re-election even though Trump carried the state comfortable – this could mean that Democrats’ resources will be extremely strained. This also applies when they have to play defense in New Jersey on behalf of Bob Menendez, who avoided a federal corruption conviction last year thanks to a hung jury. Democrats will already have to pour money into Florida, where popular governor-turned-Senate candidate Rick Scott is running an aggressive and competitive campaign. Here is his latest announcement:
Beyond the Senate map, I leave you with two tweets – good news and bad news for California Republicans. The good news could limit House Democrats’ expected gains in this deep blue, vote-rich state. The bad news Is…really bad:
Democrats are doing everything they can to avoid a disaster in the California races @NYTimes https://t.co/1zFxEzFlUe
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) May 26, 2018
Republicans are now numerically third in California:https://t.co/7fN0v07Tyx pic.twitter.com/SS74z1Nyz7
— SpeedReads (@SpeedReads) May 30, 2018
